The First Trade

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
The optimism inherent in Wednesday’s gap up was nevertheless restrained, peaking a couple of points under the 2370.25 overnight high. Gradually extending higher anyway had probed fresh highs up to 2374.50 during the noon hour. A pullback greeted the FOMC policy statement, which triggered a surge up to 2381.00. Yellen’s Q&A accompanied another pullback’s recovery to fresh highs attacking 2388.00. Overbought RSIs were left outstanding there ahead of a 10-point pullback into the close.

Overnight action’s new info…
The pullback into Wednesday’s close had targeted at least 2378.25. Just touching it at the Globex open was sufficient to reverse momentum back up. Europe’s opens were greeted back at 2385.50, on the way to fresh highs attacking 2389.00. The reaction down is so far holding a test of 2385.50 as support.

If, then…
Yesterday’s surge proves last week’s drop wasn’t going to break under “lower prior highs.” That was expected. But the past week’s bounce has yet to prove it can probe new highs up to 2401.00 or 2415.00. That’s also expected, but not required. Overbought RSIs at yesterday’s high is now neutralized, and substantial resistance at 2388.75-2390.25 has yet to break higher. Meanwhile, there is an immediate risk at the open for reversing a one-direction relentless overnight rally. I’ll be watching for any early reversal signals, and won’t necessarily be long in their absence.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2386.25 would be likely to trigger the 2384.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2380.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
NEW! Market Tour transcript included at the end of this post…

NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Monday night’s 7-point drop from 2372.00 morphed into Tuesday’s opening 10-point drop down to 2355.00. That was the minimum requirement to retest at least the structure containing last Thursday’s oversold RSIs at 2351.00. The morning’s bias environment contained a trend change signal that recovered 8 points into noon at 2363.00. Its reaction down was recovered through the afternoon, still at least 8 points under Monday’s close..

Overnight action’s new info…
Tuesday afternoon’s recovery back up to 2363.25 has extended relentlessly. The first substantial pullback has come from testing 2370.00, stopping pessimistically short of the gap back up to Monday’s close. Anyway, its 3-point reaction down is as yet shallow enough to maintain the uptrend’s series of higher lows.

If, then…
Despite Tuesday morning’s trend reversal signal, the intraday recovery didn’t gain traction for its effort. Gapping up Wednesday could serve by proxy, if maintained through the open. This would allow Tuesday’s dip to qualify as a correction so Wednesday could resume Thursday-Friday’s two consecutive higher closes — resuming the rally requires no further delay, no need to back-and-fill. Last night’s rally is promising, but it may be over-promising. It’s still vulnerable to failing, and its failure could retest Tuesday’s low down to 2351.00. The wild card is sponsorship ahead of this afternoon’s FOMC, amid headlines emanating from the Dutch election..

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2368.75 would be likely to trigger the 2366.75 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2362.75 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Phonetic dictation…
[NEW! Unreviewed voice-to-text real-time dictation of the Market Tour recording. Again, not reviewed or edited in any way, which can be equally confusing and humorous.] good morning it’s Wednesday and it’s time for Wednesday’s Market to very interesting Wednesday I think we’re already seeing no restraint on sentiment overnight that is yesterday’s drop with actually began Monday at Monday’s close that is dropping overnight into Tuesday’s open Tuesdays open then happily picking up the Baton and plunging and that resulting in a trench and said no just the ongoing series of lower lows and lower has suddenly getting way too high or high or low or high that’s the trim change there and what wasn’t super productive after that I mean initially it was productive but following that just maintain still closing negative so no traction game but the overnight action is trying to make up for that yesterday’s by did not gain traction for its effort despite the trenching signal then there’s two ways to resolve that bullishly one is to come back and we test that low and establish a more substantial bottom that low if it’s we tested by the way probably gets 251 or I take that on overnight if the new sponsorship didn’t arrive interdating indicate traction was being gay and then it needs to arrive overnight and GAP up above a relevant resistance there’s a couple here I’ll go over those in the moment but it’s not enough just to maintain it just a gap up but it all has to be maintained so the relevant resistance soon as we’ve got some preliminary indications for instance 6675 is the bias signal so exiting me up at about 6875 in this particular pattern at 9:45 would be likelier than two also exceeds 6675 at 10:15 and triggered by it’s up there’s a gap gaps actually back to Monday Monday’s close sorry Fridays close that 6850 cash 70 futures Monday’s close with Monday was covered irrelevant day anyway stopping pessimistically short of yet overnight and that’s 71 72 so there’s a number of different levels hear that you have tested Post open better be maintained through the 945 opening 15 minutes about Illinois to indicate that momentum is extending iron higher if so then traction is represented by last Thursday and Friday’s two consecutive positive closes in a downtrend can be resumed with God headlines coming out if you’re up for the future of euroscepticism that’s going to be influential we’ve got course in meetings I’m going meeting policy statement coming out this afternoon along with said Sherry Owens cordially Q&A just the most opportunistic trading environment in its wake any cycle that includes the that includes of course the fomc statement even employment situation so it’s coming out this morning already alright getting out of here otherwise Monday and Tuesday’s non extension Thursday and Friday’s to can positive closest get back on track with the two consecutive positive closes or dip back down if that Gap up can’t be maintained about some relevant high or level that’s tested Post open there’s potential for some of those lower price down here in the age range but not stable not substantial not enough to rely on them holding to avoid testing 51 last Thursday as well even in the most don’t think it can’t happen regardless of the overnight rally we haven’t yet seen any new spas and ship arrived Post open we have the opportunity because the market has an open intraday has an open and the new sponsorship that arrives after a Relentless overnight singular trend often is counter to that trend and with anxiousness ahead of the fomc what is starting to become a debate over whether it will be one quarter points are a half point I’m probably not as far as so even if it’s already discounted even if that little room for the head of that or even a negative reaction 2351 more attractive Monday’s crude oil which fulfilled yesterday it’s 4725 Target 4725 probe down to 4709 and you can see all the action I should get this 4725 interaction very clear lots of attempts to break down that door so that or this leg of the drop at least is done there’s a gap up here that wants to be filled that has to be filled before were testing yesterday’s open and neutralizing its attraction as far as reversing the trend up you know with 80 I reported yesterday everything this morning they’re still down some it up here at 48 70 brookley 2875 area and the natural gas bouncing natural gas can avoid closing above closing about 3 today then similar to or inverted from the bond description I just gave it CIA report tomorrow would be great if not for the position of strength that it had been working on for the last week but not yet at physician of weakness what would make this natural gas able to greet the I record from a position of weakness a second consecutive lower close today under 295 alright let’s go and I’ll be in there to respond officially no later than 15 minutes prior to the open or if anything else any other significant price develop okay really fun day today specially this afternoon good luck

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Surging immediately at Monday’s open was morning’s the only credible path higher. But even surging immediately would be vulnerable to reversing back down. In fact, surging immediately to 2372.00 was reversed back down. Despite having peaked short of the bias-up signal, its reversal fell to the 2365.50 bias-down signal. The session’s only other opportunity to rally wouldn’t be until the afternoon bias environment exit, which did rally, but peaked upon touching the morning’s 2372.00 high. No traction was gained, and no new unfinished business was created.

Overnight action’s new info…
Reacting down without delay ultimately formed a narrowing range centered around 2370.00. Europe’s opens had only a delayed impact, if any. A 4-5 point slide touched 2366.00 and has quickly reacted up to attack 2370.00.

If, then…
Monday’s two no-bias signals and non-trending inside day bequeath Tuesday’s open with the same predictive criteria as Monday. Rallying immediately isn’t required, and isn’t required to extend, but it’s all but required if the morning intends to rally. And not rallying remains vulnerable to backing-and-filling, or even to retesting Thursday’s 2351.00 low.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2370.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2373.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2368.25 would be unlikely to trigger the 2364.50 bias-down signal.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Thursday night’s relentless one-way rally from 2362.00 had expressed a lot of optimism ahead of Friday morning’s Employment Situation report. The news did trigger a surge up to 2376.25, but post-open action trended back down. Briefly probing negative territory down to 2359.00 coming out of the noon hour was recovered up to 2370.00 into the close. It was a second consecutive higher close, and the first in seven session not to probe under the prior session’s low.

Overnight action’s new info…
A relatively narrow 3-point range has been restrained from recovering into positive territory above 2369.00. The open’s dip had retested Friday’s last timing window low at 2365.00. Now after attacking it again, a bounce is trying to retest the overnight highs.

If, then…
The narrow overnight range is otherwise uninteresting, except that global exchanges are much firmer. The difference in character does suggest taking credibly almost any post-open rally. But more often it represents an attraction below. Which keeps with the bullish scenario that still allows for retesting Thursday’s oversold RSIs at 2351.00. Quickly probing above Friday’s late recovery high would still get a benefit of the doubt for extending, anyway, attracted to the two-week old 2377.50 gap up bar, if not also to retest the highs up to 2401.00 or even to 2415.00.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2367.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2373.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2371.25 would be unlikely to trigger the 2365.50 bias-down signal.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
NEW! Market Tour transcript included at the end of this post…

NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Thursday’s open isolated an overnight probe under Wednesday’s range, quickly extending up to 2366.00. It quickly peaked and ranged sideways through the noon hour  The afternoon’s bias environment was a 12-point plunge that probed under the overnight low down to 2351.00. Being sponsored by weak hands, it was retraced entirely through the close to its 2363.00. Oversold RSIs was left outstanding at the low, and the ongoing downtrend was maintained. But it was the first positive close.

Overnight action’s new info…
The late recovery extended relentlessly back up to and through Thursday’s high. Several hours of a narrow 6-tick range at Wednesday’s 2370.00 high greeted Europe’s opens which triggered a surge to 2373.00. A dip to 2370.00 was briefly retraced entirely.

If, then…
No traction was gained by yesterday afternoon’s recovery, so gapping up is the only credible way to rally this morning. Gapping up would also help to break the attraction to retesting yesterday’s low. Not just gapping up, but also maintaining the gap up through the open. Two big challenges to that. First, a lot of buying pressure is being expended already, by trending up relentlessly overnight, and by probing two session highs. Second, extreme optimism ahead of an event like this morning’s payrolls can be bearish from a contrarian perspective. A knee-jerk reaction down can still recover enough in time for Friday Factors to trigger a short-squeeze into the weekend. Friday Factors can cut either way, so not maintaining a gap up can find today’s focus suddenly shifting to retesting yesterday’s low.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] No preliminary indications are considered before an Employment Situation report.

Phonetic dictation…
[NEW! Unreviewed voice-to-text real-time dictation of the Market Tour recording. Again, not reviewed or edited in any way, which can be equally confusing and humorous.] Alright good morning and welcome it’s time for Friday’s Morning Market to her we’ve got the employment situation report schedule for pre open about an hour from now and we have an ongoing downtrend multi-session to clean off of last Wednesday’s High series of lower lows and lower highs intraday relentlessly testing lower Pryor has from the prior week somewhat relentlessly finally breaking that Trend in one regard yesterday not the lower lows and lower house but actually closing positive every other session maybe not the second in the series that was flat this was the first positive close as opposed to negative closes all on the way and that indicated that at least sellers weren’t making any substantial inroads despite probing lower it’s still not reversing the trend an overnight that has already had an impact that positive close in the downtrend for the first time in 6 days has already had an impact on price by producing a rally first to 2370 testing Wednesdays resistance and then to 2373 briefly once we flee again so there’s potential here to Gap up yesterday’s buyers despite rallying into the clothes didn’t gain traction for their efforts being and I’m going down to it would discuss this every day the Lord has the only way to to reverse that is first to retest the well or to Gabba so if the Gap up can be maintained we can start and get substantially well on the path to the tracing the past weeks to climb member it’s Friday in there are Friday factors like that are driven by the impending everyone’s minds or at least has other issues brought to the Forefront driving decisions that are as prevalent earlier in the week and they can result in the shorts can result in the office as well trying to Gap up isn’t maintained testing prior has any prayer hi that’s tested through the out during the open if it’s not maintained through the open it’s a good and we could be off to the races today was and there is that looks like Broadway what is over-extended I should say is the market as of the decline is if there’s a negative need your creaction down that doesn’t extend that reacts backup for covers just a blip down that greets the open in gap upload entirely capable of having corrected itself and being on the road to extending higher so what’s up the pound still still waiting here right around 1 2170 back to 122 it was the target area of this break probing Lowe’s not closing lower also not yet rejecting that that is a reasonable setup for a bottom so I’ve seen any behavior in the loony and we do kind of have a set of clothes from multi-session rain and then the euro I came of that parallel uptrending support spiked up on the ECB news yesterday only two once again go out ranging around the balance on that 105-85 putting on a good show overnight we’ll see how Bears against employment report 9859 which would qualify for for ending the decline for satisfying pressure except not likely on Friday so we had talked about room down to Below in fact we’ve extended to 9450 already so I suspect you’re headed into as well and I can’t really look at the bottom silver which tested its 1705 4711 crude oil confirmed today would be bullish that puts a lot of pressure on sellers on this barrage pattern to reassert itself if this Barry’s battery asserts itself because it’s on the precipice of being thoroughly invalidated by are closed today it oughta be a pretty spectacular invalidation so be careful of that and if the cell cycle triggers should be pretty aggressive right I’m going to be recording here and I’ll be commenting on or at least annotating the employment situation report and then see if the open right everyone good luck today oh don’t forget Saturday review tomorrow