The First Trade

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Tuesday’s wide-ranging choppy morning had remained range bound, narrowing between 2065.00-2075.00. Firming into the final hour hovered above the morning’s high, but didn’t improve above 2079.00. The morning’s 2062.75 bias-down target was left outstanding below.

Overnight action’s new info…
Perhaps it’s a slow news day due to the holiday. But price has only ratcheted higher in stages. One leg up consolidated off of testing 2080.50, and another timed to Europe’s opens peaked at 2084.50. Its reaction down tested 2080.50 as support, before surging to fresh highs that blipped-up momentarily to touch 2087.00.

If, then…
2080.50 is this morning’s bias-up signal, and 2086.00 is its target. Both have been tested overnight. Impressive, but less relevant than their post-open disposition — especially after singularly-minded overnight trending. Recovering both to renew the bias-up could marginalize sellers for the day, as counter-trend sponsorship is inhibited by holiday-depressed volume. But while countering a trend is difficult, so is getting it started. Holding one or both bias-up parameter’s test could put into play a lower objective. And that same counter-trend inhibition could facilitate the influence of lower attractions.

First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2083.50 would be unlikely to exceed 2086.00 bias-up target at 10:15 whose recovery would have renewed the bias-up signal. Exiting the open above 2088.75 would be likely to renew the bias-up. Exiting the open under 2076.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2080.50 bias-up signal at 10:15.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Monday morning’s plunge through noon from 2088.00 to 2062.00 was the consequence of Fridya not having rejected the intraday probes under it. That consequence extended 8 points deeper than was necessary. The balance of the session reversed direction. Firming through the bias environment back up to 2072.00 didn’t gain traction, but that didn’t prevent a late surge to 2077.50.

Overnight action’s new info…
Pulling back into and out of Monday’s close found immediate support at the 2070.00 area. Attacking 2079.00 into midnight ranged narrowly, but had started slipping already before Europe’s opens. That slipping became more aggressive on the way to fresh lows at 2066.25… Not so fast, there — a one-hour surge is retesting 2072.00.

If, then…
Without gaining traction Monday afternoon, the late extension higher set the stage for one of two resolutions. Either extend higher overnight, too, attracting new sponsorship that justifies the late optimism. Or, resume the decline Tuesday morning — and with a vengeance, the consequence of Monday afternoon’s nouveau optimism having only refueled Monday morning’s pessimism. But that sword can cut both ways, and opening down too deeply can quickly discover that few new sellers are being attracted, allowing a bottom to form.

First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2066.50 would be likely also to trigger the 2068.00 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2072.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
The reaction to Fridays’ pre-open payrolls report had plunged 12-17 points down to 2082.00. Recovering most of it through the open nevertheless reacted down to fresh lows at 2077.50. The balance of the session ranged choppily higher to attack 2094.00, repeatedly overlapping the critical 2088.00 level, while still within Thursday’s range.

Overnight action’s new info…
Sunday night’s flat open soon probed fresh highs at 2098.00. That was brief, and retraced entirely, then reversed into negative territory at 2087.00. That’s essentially this morning’s bias-down signal, and several hours have ranged there sideways, touching 2086.00.

If, then…
Not rejecting Friday’s probes under 2088.00 kept the market vulnerable to probing even deeper, like to the 2070.00 area. Gapping up could serve by proxy as the rejection that Friday failed to produce. But the overnight slide is more in-line with the rally still needing to launch from a lower level.

First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2091.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2087.25 bias-down signal. Exiting the open under 2085.00 would be likely to trigger bias-down.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Thursday morning’s 19-point slide fulfilled multiple objectives that had been attracting price down, inhibiting the rally from resuming. Bouncing through the noon hour was unable to extend, and the afternoon only ranged choppily, once the next day’s Employment Situation report began paralyzing price action.

Overnight action’s new info…
The overnight 2092.00-2095.00 range was narrower than most intraday timing windows. First dipping to the range’s lower-end and then bouncing to its upper-end is now dipping again to its lower-end. But it’s otherwise only noise, continuing to be inhibited ahead of this morning’s Employment report.

If, then…
Having neutralized the “unfinished business below” yesterday, the rally is free to resume. Son, not resuming the rally would be likely instead to extend down more substantially, if not also steeply. Resuming the rally need not be either substantial or steep, simply obvious — probing and extending to new recovery highs.

First Trade…
There are no preliminary levels ahead of an Employment Situation report.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Wednesday’s gap down barely tried recovering before extending even lower through the noon hour down to 2090.50. The afternoon’s bounce  to 2100.00didn’t reverse the trend back up, and “unfinished business below” was left outstanding at the 2088.25 bias-down target.

Overnight action’s new info…
Firming up to 2098.00 was contained easily within yesterday afternoon’s range. A 6-point drop at Europe’s opens was recovered entirely, first back up to 2098.00, and then through yesterday afternoon’s 2101.00 high to attack 2105.00.

If, then…
Gapping up above yesterday’s 2100.50 noon hour high might not be enough to break the attraction to 2088.25 below. It might, but recovering 2105.50 would be more assuring. Anyway, the reward would be to probe Tuesday’s 2110.25 high, probably up to 2113.00 or could allow probing Tuesday’s 2110.25 high before 2117.00. BOJ and BOE overnight endorsed lower rates, prompting the overnight rally. But a litter of Fed speakers are scheduled throughout today who are likely to promote the opposite.

First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2104.50 would be likely to trigger the 2101.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2099.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up. Exiting the open above 2109.25 would become likely also to exceed the 2107.00 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal.