The First Trade

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Monday”s modest gap up to the morning”s 2121.75 bias-up signal had reacted down under Friday”s highs to 2116.50, putting into play a test of the bias-down signal. But that singular bearish influence was overwhelmed by the bullish WedEX and several other bullish factors. The bias-up signal was recovered on the way to afternoon highs testing the 2126.00 area. A failed attempt to gain traction was reversed down to attack 2119.00. Unfinished business was left outstanding at the afternoon”s 2128.25 bias-up target.

Overnight action”s new info…
Flat-to-higher ranging tested 2125.00 into Europe”s opens. Reacting back down to the 2120.50 area is trying to firm again.

If, then…
Having failed to gain traction yesterday afternoon, extending the rally this morning all but requires gapping up through yesterday”s highs. The alternative would at least back-and-fill, probably down to 2103.00. Unlike a rally”s gap up origin, a path down has no specific characteristic, such as its slope.

First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2127.00 would be likely also to trigger the 2125.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2119.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Friday”s open trended down throughout, but remained within the range. The setup”s bearish influence produced only a momentary lower low — touching the morning”s 2112.75 bias-down signal — and kept the market hovering at its lows until late-afternoon. The bullish WedEX influenced the final two hours to trend up to fresh highs, which peaked upon fulfilling the offsetting test of the morning”s 2119.75 bias-up signal.

Overnight action”s new info…
Sunday night”s flat open soon began probing higher, extending so far to 2122.75 and consolidating above Friday”s highs. This is against the backdrop of China”s market facing renewed difficulties, and a “flash crash” in Gold.

If, then…
Having influenced Friday afternoon, the bullish WedEX should also influence Monday morning. The signal is beyond being inverted, and can only succeed or fail. Its influence this morning can be more obvious than it was Friday afternoon, i.e. steeper and more productive.

First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2123.75 would be likely also to trigger the 2121.75 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2114.75 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Thursday”s 2113.50 open had gapped up 9-12 points from Wednesday”s closes, above all of the week-long upleg”s prior intraday highs. The session extended higher through the close to touch 2118.50. Buyers barely avoided gaining traction for their efforts.

Overnight action”s new info…
Narrow, sideways ranging has been twice touched Thursday morning”s 2115.00 high while attacking its 2118.50 afternoon high to within 1 tick. The highs are being attacked again, now.

If, then…
This being expiration and, of course, a Friday, several signals and setups are working. The bullish WedEX is their main filter. Its inversion to bearish would start becoming likely if the opening 15 minutes of volatility were to trend down, and/or if the open were to gap under yesterday afternoon”s 2113.00 low. Otherwise, the the afternoon”s bullish WedEX influence remains likely, even if this morning”s bias-down were the only bearish setup triggered. Meanwhile, let the the narrow overnight range lull you into complacency — expiration”s open can begin trending from a standing stop.

First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2121.75 would be likely also to trigger the 2119.75 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2111.75 would be likely to trigger the 2112.75 bias-down.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Piercing Tuesday night”s fresh high 2107.50 by 1 tick Wednesday morning expended the day”s selling pressure Ranging narrowly around unchanged through two timing windows waited for the afternoon”s bias environment to begin lapsing. Then a 10-point plunge touched 2095.00, which was recovered to end the day essentially unchanged. Oversold RSIs were left outstanding at the low. WedEX did not trigger.

Overnight action”s new info…
The plunge”s recovery soon extended to probe fresh highs at 2108.50. A shallow pullback soon resumed the rally, most recently touching 2113.50.

If, then…
Monday”s confirmed breakout was either going to begin a correction Wednesday, or else extend relentlessly to fulfill its target of new highs. Wednesday afternoon”s plunge had the opportunity to be that correction”s beginning. Completely retracing the plunge had extra opportunity to start that correction, having neutralized the plunge”s oversold condition while leaving unfinished business below at the low”s oversold RSIs. Yet, the rally soon resumed and extended to fresh highs overnight. Thursday”s gap up (currently indicated, with Draghi yet to speak this morning) will be the last opportunity to initiate a corrective dip through Friday morning — more unfinished business would be left outstanding above, with both a new opening gap up and a late bullish WedEX signal. Otherwise, not yet reversing down this morning could extend the trend through Monday”s open.

First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2115.00 would be likely also to exceed the 2111.00 bias-up target through 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal. Exiting the open above 2108.50 would be likely also at least to trigger the 2107.25 bias-up signal. Exiting the open under 2104.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Monday”s narrow overnight range centered around 2093.00 quickly launched an opening rally. It trended higher intraday to eventually touch its 2105.50 maximum objective. Buyers gained traction for their effort, while confirming Monday”s breakout. .

Overnight action”s new info…
The first order of business was to fulfill the 2099.25 objective of the last-minute reaction down that had begun from Tuesday”s. Its touch reacted up and began surging to a fresh high at 2107.50. That was short-lived, as the balance of the night settled down into a narrow 3-point range back to 2102.00.

If, then…
The rally need not resume immediately, regardless of Tuesday afternoon”s buyers having gained traction, while confirming Monday”s breakout. Actually, those are the reasons why the rally is vulnerable to reversing down — because having entrenched its uptrend, a corrective dip can be more easily absorbed. Nevertheless, exiting the open above yesterday”s high would be credible for extending higher through at least the morning. Either way, Yellen”s televised congressional Q&A is a likely catalyst.

First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2105.50 would be likely at least to test the 2108.50 bias-up signal. Exiting the open under 2105.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up. Exiting the open under 1097.50 would be likely to trigger the 2099.25 bias-down signal.