The First Trade

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Thursday morning”s recovery from the overnight dip into negative territory was able to extend higher through the bias environment. But not beyond, other than a blip-up before the close. Otherwise, choppy ranging throughout the afternoon was centered around 2128.00-2130.25. No traction was gained for the effort, only a new high close, which occurred without probing prior highs.

Overnight action”s new info…
The relatively narrow, choppy range has persisted. Alternating between probing 1-2 points under 2128.00, and piercing 2130.25 above.

If, then…
This being a Friday, the morning”s bias tends to persist through the noon hour. This being a .three-day weekend, thinning participation makes trending difficult to start, and difficult to end once started, or to reverse if ended. Low-volume environments can reflect the will of weaker-handed participants, so the strong-handed distribution up here I”ve been documenting doesn”t prevent a break higher from extending in this low-volume environment.

First Trade…
Exiting the open above 2131.00 would be likely at least to test the 2133.00 bias-up signal. Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2125.25 would be unlikely to trigger the 2133.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2121.75 would be likely to trigger the 2123.25 bias-down signal.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
The air is thin up here. Wednesday”s opening drop bottomed upon neutralizing “unfinished business below” at
2119.25. Consolidation through the noon hour finally surged to 2132.25 in reaction to FOMC Minutes. The likely 5-point correction doubled, ending the day back at 2122.50 support.

Overnight action”s new info…
Holding
2122.50 through Wednesday”s close didn”t prevent extending through it into the Globex open, which tumbled to 2115.00. Flat-to-higher ranging reached 2120.00 ahead of Europe”s opens. A 3-point pullback has now recovered to attack 2121.00.

If, then…
Wednesday”s probe above the two prior sessions” highs originated from under their interim low. The probe was retraced entirely, back down to what had been the interim low. Avoiding a lower close didn”t prevent extending down, 7-1/2 points. Isolating that to overnight action would keep alive potential for attacking or probing the highs Thursday. But gapping up to reject Wednesday”s close does seem to be off the table. Meanwhile, participation will begin evaporating as the three-day weekend draws nearer. This environment enables a sudden, steep trending — and not necessarily in one direction or the other.

First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above
2122.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2119.25 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2117.25 would be likely to trigger bias-down.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
The first signs of topping appeared Tuesday. After having met the 2128.00 target Monday, and probing room for noise up to 2133.00 by an overnight surge, Tuesday”s open was greeted back under 2128.00 on the way down to 2122.50. The afternoon”s false break higher was reversed to a fresh session low. The close bounced, but sellers gained a little traction by entering the final hour under the bias environment”s range, negating the bias environment”s exit above the noon hour”s range. Meanwhile, unfinished business was left outstanding below at 2119.25.

Overnight action”s new info…
Choppy sideways action has avoided touching yesterday”s low, repeatedly testing 2122.00 and bouncing to 2126.00.

If, then…
Tuesday”s 2134.00 pre-open high doesn”t require a retest, but it is still an attraction until momentum reverses down. Testing 2119.25 below can be ignored temporarily by a detour back to the highs, or tested without reversing momentum down. Opening in rally mode would be credible for trending up this morning. Not opening in rally mode would be likelier to probe fresh lows, becoming vulnerable to extending down if not recovered almost immediately.

First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2130.25 would be likely also to trigger the 2128.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2125.25 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
The bullish WedEX signal continued its influence through Monday morning. Recovering above 2115.00 was extended first to attack 2121.00, and then 2125.00. The afternoon”s attack on 2129.00 held up long enough for the rally to gain traction. A last-minute dip tested 2125.00 into the close.

Overnight action”s new info…
Monday”s late 5-point dip from attacking 2129.00 was recovered just enough to pierce it by midnight. That held until Europe”s opens, which then doubled the gain by surging to 2134.00. The surge hasn”t extended, and consolidating around 2131-2132.00 is now dipping to 2130.00.

If, then…
Reversing down this morning is possible, since  the target”s 2133.00 upper-end has been met. But its intraday retest likely because yesterday”s rally gained traction. The reward is control of the next morning”s bias environment — also with some complexity or trending. Otherwise, except for an errant tick at 2129.00, only a singular leg produced 2134.00, so it is not necessarily a “new Globex trend extreme” that requires intraday retest. A pre-open dip back to or under yesterday”s highs would make the overnight high”s retest likelier to hold, instead of extending higher today to 2140.00. Caveat: A pre-open dip into negative territory still could extend down this morning — after all, a big target has been met.

First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2133.00 would be likely also to exceed the 2132.25 bias-up target through 10:15, renewing the bias-up signal. Exiting the open above 2130.00 would be likely to trigger the 2127.25 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2127.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Friday”s 2122.75 pre-open high during Globex was not complex, so it was not a “new Globex trend extreme” that required intraday retest. Sellers tried to exploit it, but the morning”s reaction down to 2113.00 held repeated tests of Thursday afternoon”s 2115.00 prior low. The bullish WedEX presumably became operational as the afternoon rallied back up to 2119.50.

Overnight action”s new info…
Sunday night”s open blipped-up to touch 2120.75 before reversing back down to attack 2115.00. Europe”s opens were accompanied by a dive to 2112.25. Despite recovering back to 2120.00, renewed weakness is attacking the low.

If, then…
Regardless of the opening print, the bullish WedEX makes Monday morning”s bias vulnerable to trending up. It was a late signal, and its influence Friday afternoon is only assumed, so its continued credibility depends upon exiting the open appropriately. Regardless of this morning”s resolution, sellers are still considered the weaker hands, since each lower high reflects pessimism that isn”t gaining traction.

First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2115.00 would be likely at least to test the 2111.75 bias-down signal. Exiting the open above 2119.75 would be likely at least to test the 2123.25 bias-up signal. No preliminary level is currently identifiable that would be any likelier to trigger either signal