The First Trade

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Sunday night’s rally from Friday’s 2628.00 close had extended up to 2666.00. Its correction down to 2655.00 was recovered and extended through Monday’s first half-hour to attack 2672.00. Which held a test of Wednesday’s prior high to form a base. That created a lot of room to absorb backing-and-filling. The 2652.50 noon hour low barely and briefly probed under the pre-open low, and held Wednesday’s lower-end. The post-open rally resumed until fulfilling its minimum objective of a fresh high attacking 2674.00. Flat-to-higher ranging through the close extended to test 2676.00.

Overnight action’s new info…
Headlines have batted about the market repeatedly. It began before the futures close when Trump comments immediately following the cash session close triggered a blip down to 2668.00. That extended lower at the Globex open until attacking 2655.00. Its recovery back up to 2668.00 reacted down to 2661.00. Then a couple of headlines took the market for a ride, the first one triggering a 23-point spike up to 2684.00, and then the second clarifying headline triggering a slide back down to 2660.00. Another bounce to 2674.00 has been retraced entirely, too, back down to 2659.50.

If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
But for Trump’s comments, yesterday’s close was a compelling hold-long. Although based on erroneous information that was corrected, the overnight spike and its reversal confirm two key characteristics of the potential upside. That extending higher at all should almost literally explode higher, especially above 2678.00. Overnight action also confirmed the 2660.00 downside support, which was tested several times. It’s being tested now, so we may see whether breaking its support will require forming another accumulative pattern before the recovery can resume. Its break still has room down to 2646.00 before reversing the trend back down.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2667.75 would be unlikely to trigger the 2664.50 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2660.00 would be likely to trigger bias-down.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Friday’s price action was contained entirely within Tuesday’s 2632.00-2671.00 range, essentially qualifying it as another inside day. So was Tuesday — Thursday was closed. Any other session would have considered this sequence to be bearish, and closing at Friday’s 2628.00 intraday low would have been a compelling hold-short, especially for still not rallying out of the 2635.00 test, and despite still being above the 2626.00 overnight low. But that predictability is undermined by the evaporating volume. So, the late 13-point slide back under the 2631.00 open didn’t qualify for a hold-short through the early close.

Overnight action’s new info…
Sunday night’s open surged 10 points into a narrow consolidation under 2640.00. Later firming again to attack 2646.00 hovered under Friday’s late-morning high. Surging into and out of Europe’s opens has touched 2666.00, just 5 points under Tuesday/Wednesday’s highs. Its reaction down has been consolidating at 2658.00.

If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Any delay in recovering coming out of the weekend would have made a retest of the recent 2603.00 likelier. The overnight rally doesn’t reverse the trend up — it’s not even any likelier to extend higher post-open, as seasonal bullishness ended with absorbing Friday’s drop — but it does create room to expend post-open selling pressures before signaling the decline is extending. And extending higher is possible, as is absorbing more backing-and-filling first.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 2652.00 would be likely to exceed the 2645.00 bias-up target through 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Gapping up Wednesday to 2658.00 and dipping immediately to 2651.00 was recovered to attack the 2667.00 overnight high. The bias-up environment extended through its exit to attack 2671.00, only touching Tuesday’s high. Up 39 points from the 2632.25 overnight low, and still only an “inside day,” which pre-holiday evaporation wouldn’t help to change. Instead, the afternoon ranged narrowly sideways at the afternoon’s 2662.00 bias-down signal. The 3:10-3:20 proxy window broke lower to retest the 2651.00 post-open low. Futures continued sliding to the 2647.75-2648.50 61.8% retracement between Tuesday’s close and Wednesday’s gap up, natural support.

Overnight action’s new info…
Wide, choppy ranging around Wednesday’s close had developed through midnight. Breaking lower into and out of Europe’s opens fell to what is Friday morning’s 2636.00 bias-down target. Its reaction consolidated back up to 2646.00 before breaking lower again to 2627.00 and ending Globex in a test of Tuesday’s 2632.50 lows. Thursday night ranged between 2634.00-2646.00, currently testing its lower-end.

If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
2654.00 and 2635.00 were the decline’s next lower targets. Their first tests were Tuesday morning, and reacting up had resolved back down into their retests. Having bounced back above them Wednesday, their retests today offer another opportunity to react up. Resolving down again would be likely also to resume and extend the decline, whether today or next week. Reacting up would be a little less likely to resume the decline next week, because the price action of today’s holiday-shortened session won’t be very predictive. Meanwhile, their retests need not react up post-open at all, and probably won’t if not reacting up very early.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2632.00 would be unlikely to recover the 2636.00 bias-down target by 10:15 to renew the bias-down signal. Exiting the open under 2640.75 would be likely at least to trigger the 2645.00 bias-down signal at 10:15.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Tuesday night’s decline already had tested the decline’s next lower target at 2654.00 by 3 points, and greeted the open there. Bouncing 7 points resolved down to test the next lower target at 2635.00 by 2 points. Both were recovered quickly by fresh session highs testing 2668.00. It was retested by 3 points after an interim dip back down to pre-open lows. A same-day test and recovery of both of the next two lower targets would have at least robbed sellers of their traction. But the afternoon’s slide back down to the morning’s lows ended back under 2654.00, while the afternoon range was still utilizing 2635.00 as support.

Overnight action’s new info…
After initially dipping to attack the late-afternoon low down to 2632.25, price has trended up relentlessly. And by double-digits. It may sound like a rejection of sellers, by strong-handed buyers, but the bounce so far may as well be noise and not necessarily due to sponsorship. Ranging sideways since Europe’s opens has fluctuated choppily around 2654.00.

If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
116 ES points, 1,100 Dow points, all from Friday’s noon hour high to Tuesday afternoon’s retest of the morning’s lows. Is it done? NDX outperformed by not retesting its morning’s lows, and having been a primary catalyst for the decline, a Tech bottom would be helpful to ending the sell-off. Thanksgiving’s seasonal bullishness could also help, and it tends to step in today. None of which matters if the normal rubber band stretch has broken the band’s elasticity altogether. The overnight bounce is only testing 2654.00 resistance, but a morning rally could test 2678.00 resistance and still maintain the decline’s momentum.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2654.00 would be likely to trigger the 2650.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2648.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Sunday night’s Globex high got between Friday’s 2744.75-2748.75 highs before reversing back down, and greeting Monday’s open at the 2729.00 earlier Globex low. The quasi Globex-flip setup didn’t exit the open any lower, which would have triggered the setup. But the morning trended down anyway to 2705.00. Perhaps that’s due more to the bearish WedEX’s aggressive stage of influence. Regardless, the afternoon didn’t exploit the WedEX’s influence having lapsed, and extended down to the bias environment’s 2681.00 low. A reverse / expanding triangle formed, and the proxy window briefly probed its 2698.00 resistance up to 2793.50 before closing back down within the triangle’s range.

Overnight action’s new info…
Flat-to-lower ranging into Europe’s opens had held Monday afternoon’s 2681.50-2693.50 lows. Lower lows after Europe’s opens broke down to 2673.50, where price has consolidated back up to 2681.50 for 3 hours. Now a very recent blip-down to 2673.00 has snapped back up to attack 2684.00, and then slapped back down to fresh lows testing 2672.00.

If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
If the Globex-flip influenced yesterday morning’s decline, then no afternoon reversal keeps alive its influence through this morning, too. At least, we’ll give that a benefit of the doubt so long as no reversal signal is triggered. Isolating the probe under yesterday’s lows to the overnight would form a reversal setup, or triggering bias-up. Otherwise, the decline’s next lower major objective is 2654.25. All of which puts last Thursday’s potential bottoming pattern in desperate need of confirmation by closing above a prior high, starting with recovering 2706.75 to start signaling momentum reversing up — a little seasonal bullishness this afternoon could do the trick, but look out below if not.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2686.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2683.50 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2682.00 would be likely to trigger bias-down.