The First Trade

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

Through the prior close…
Wednesday”s rally to 1992.50 neutralized Tuesday”s “unfinished business” at 1990.50. Room for noise above it 1 point higher wasn”t touched. But all of Tuesday”s range was recovered in an “outside day” that left no unfinished business below.

Overnight action’s new info…
A flat Globex open eventually started sliding into its 1987.25 low at Europe”s 3:00am ET opens. Reversing back up from there has been resisted by unchanged at 1991.50.

If, then…
I noted in the today”s Trading Plan that negative territory could be probed down to 1987.25 without getting away from the recovery. Having fully exploited it overnight, there is no excuse not to try extending the rally this morning. Maybe one excuse, the lighter volume from today”s Jewish holiday. If the rally does resume pre-open, then lighter volume would become a challenge to maintaining the momentum — yesterday”s last hour 1990.00-1992.50 range would try to attract price down. Trending through the open would find low volume to be more of a protector, because that”s a difficult environment to reverse trending.

First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 1995.00 would also likely trigger the 1993.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 1987.25 would be likely at least to test the 1985.00 bias-down signal, but not necessarily trigger it.

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Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

Through the prior close…
Tuesday afternoon’s bias environment suffered the consequence of not entering the noon hour in rally mode. And that consequence was to retest the pre-open low, which was probed down to 1975.50. Its reaction up to 1981.00 was retraced entirely into the cash session close. The reaction plunged through the futures close down to 1968.50. Unfinished business above was left outstanding at 1990.50.

Overnight action’s new info…
Firming into the Globex open extended relentlessly to 1977.50 into Europe’s opens. A quick dip down to 1973.00 was retraced as quickly by 61.8%, and then recovered entirely more than 2 hours later on the way to 1978.75.

If, then…
The doable rejection of Tuesday’s last-minute drop became more difficult when its plunge extended past the cash session close. The overnight rally certainly makes reversing up more possible, but a lot of energy has been expended already. Retracing the drop is half the battle to reversing the trend’s direction. Gapping up is another half the battle. Extending high enough quickly enough is another half. Three halves, that’s how difficult reversing up remains. But the reward is large for reversing up through the open — a substantial intraday rally. The risk of not rallying is to revisit overnight lows.

First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 1979.00 would be likely at least to test the 1981.75 bias-up signal, but it won’t be any more assured of triggering at 10:15 without also recovering 1983.75 by 9:45.