The First Trade

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Thursday’s 52-poiont slide from 2808.00 had bottomed early in the afternoon, and consolidated through the close back up to 2772.00-2777.00. Flat-to-higher overnight was apparently reassuring enough to trigger Friday’s opening surge up to 2800.00. But that soon peaked, and the open was retraced soon after noon. Friday afternoon’s bearish WedEX influenced price deeper to within 6 points of Thursday’s 2756.50 low. The final hour’s recovery attempt failed and buyers gained no traction for their efforts, while the bigger picture’s Ascending Triangle retracement was retained.

Overnight action’s new info…
Sunday night’s open gapped down to and through Thursday’s low, to what is this morning’s 2758.75 bias-down target. Extending lower soon tested 2750.00, where RSIs diverged positively on a retest to help launch a recovery back into positive territory above 2767.50-2769.00. Its test of 2779.00 at Europe’s opens reacted back down to 2770.00, and now its retest is trying to reverse back up and resume the rally.

If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Regardless of any opening gap, resuming Friday afternoon’s bearish WedEX influence this morning should be more aggressive — which should be obvious by trending down as the opening 15 minutes of volatility lapses. That setup may find itself competing against the influence of an Isolation setup that maintains the recovery from having probed overnight under Friday’s lows — which should be obvious if that recovery is maintained through the open. Overbought RSIs at Friday’s high would be Monday’s likely attraction if the WedEX’s influence has disappeared, while resuming the decline would simply point down.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2780.00would be likely to trigger the 2777.00 bias-upp signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2773.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up. Exiting the open under 2762.75 would be likely to trigger the 2764.25 bias-down signal.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Thursday’s “session-long decline” triggered at the 2801.50 open. An 11-point drop was nonetheless recovered up to 2808.00 before the setup’s influence truly kicked in. Every timing window but the noon hour probed its prior timing window’s low on the way down to 2756.50 during the afternoon bias environment. But the final hour also avoided probing its prior timing window’s low, instead bouncing to test the bias environment’s high and to close at 2772.00. More oversold RSIs were left outstanding at the lows.

Overnight action’s new info…
Flat-to-higher ranging got up to 2785.50 before greeting Europe’s opens at 2780.00. And that was on the way back down to unchanged at yesterday’s 2772.00 close. Much of which has now been recovered to attack 2784.00.

If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
If the session intends to stage another downleg, then it’s keeping its plans very secret. The two prior sessions had ultimately signaled a Globex-flip and a session-long decline, but no post-open setup is currently indicated by the flat-to-higher overnight ranging. Gapping down under Thursday afternoon’s low is the usual resolution to having missed the final hour’s fresh low during a session-long decline setup, but that’s not currently indicated. Either the session actually will avoid another downleg, or else hope still springs eternal and sellers are refreshed for their deepest and most destructive downleg of the set. Any other day of the week would reveal its intent in this setup during the opening 15 minutes of volatility. This being a Friday, a failed morning bounce that doesn’t recover a prior high would still be vulnerable to an afternoon collapse, even without the added influence of a bearish WedEX.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2781.00 would be likely to trigger this morning’s 2779.25 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2777.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
A multi-session Ascending Triangle had broken sharply higher Tuesday. A very last-minute surge began testing the lower-end of the 2819.50-2823.00 likely bounce objective. Overnight action tested its upper end by 1 point. probing above Tuesday’s intraday range. Greeting Wednesday’s open back under the 2813.25 earlier Globex low formed a Globex-flip setup that is bearish for the morning. Which it was, producing a 30-point drop to 2783.25. A bounce into the bias environment’s exit attacked 2819.50, which reacted down to 2800.00 and ranged choppily sideways through the close. Any higher would have triggered a domino effect next targeting 2838.00. Any lower could have launched a retest of session lows, where oversold RSIs require an eventual retest.

Overnight action’s new info…
Wednesday afternoon’s choppy range ended by bouncing back toward session highs, through the 2812.00 cash session close up to 2816.00. Globex immediately dipped back down to and through 2812.00 on the way to Wednesday afternoon’s 2800.00 low. Firming into and out of Europe’s opens recovered to test and retest 2812.00, which has so far held, and is now reacting down to 2804.00.

If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
The Ascending Triangle pattern’s breakout Tuesday was likely false. So, the question remains, from where does it fail. Probably not from 2819.50-2823.00, which defined Wednesday’s highs. Not unless this morning’s open launches a downleg that extends under Wednesday’s lows without delay, which isn’t currently indicated. Gapping up or down — either above 2819.50 or under 2793.00, respectively — is also not indicated, but it would trigger WedEX by proxy. It’s possible for this morning to remain range bound, so we’ll take seriously any failed early attempt at trendnig.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2803.00 would be likely to trigger the 2808.00 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2811.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down. Exiting the open above 2819.50 would be likely to trigger the 2817.50 bias-up signal at 10:15.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
A relentless 28-point overnight rally greeted Tuesday’s open by gapping up to 2773.00. The uptrending support that Monday’s late-afternoon slide had broken was immediately recovered. The Ascending Triangle pattern we were tracking remained intact. The opportunity to reject it was ignored, and the balance of the session rallied another 36 points to 2816.00. Even a very last-minute pullback to 2808.00 was recovered through the futures close to 2919.00. This is the lower-end of 2919.00-2923.00 which is the next higher resistance from a Running Correction that had formed during last Wednesday afternoon’s decline, one of the Triangle’s likelier objectives.

Overnight action’s new info…
Tuesday’s last-minute recovery up to 2819.00 was consolidated through midnight by a narrowing range, forming a shallow Ascending Triangle. Breaking higher into Europe’s opens attacked 2924.00. And as quickly as possible, it was retested while RSIs diverged negatively, reversing the trend back down to 2807.00. By the way, being a corrective bounce, that’s not a “new Globex trend extreme” which would otherwise require an intraday retest.

If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
2919.00-2923.00 resistance has now been thoroughly tested, and influential. Its test and reaction overnight is less optimal than intraday, but still credible if Tuesday afternoon’s 2808.00 bias environment highs fail to hold as support. Otherwise, resuming the rally this morning would next target 2838.00 “higher prior lows” from last Wednesday morning’s consolidation. There’s also a powerful setup trying to form, having probed overnight above yesterday’s high, which would be very bearish if exiting the open under the 2813.25 earlier overnight low.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2808.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2803.00 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2811.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2819.50 bias-up signal.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

PROGRAMMING NOTE: I’M AWAY FROM THE SCREENS TODAY BETWEEN 10:30-NOON ET.

Through the prior close…
Monday’s second consecutive “inside day” was nonetheless swinging widely. And the wide swings had been gradually probing intraday higher highs. Friday’s 2779.00 highs were touched just before entering the final hour, and just before Saudi Arabia headlines triggered another wide swing back down. The afternoon’s 2762.00 lower-end was on-track for containing the balance of the session. But the last 15 minutes collapsed back down to attack the morning’s 2751.25 low at the cash session close, and lower to 2749.00 at the futures close. An Ascending Triangle that had yet to probe its resistance was left with a break under its uptrending support.

Overnight action’s new info…
The drop initially extended to greet the Globex open at 2745.50, and then immediately began reversing back up to 2758.50. The balance of the night has essentially ranged choppily around 2758.50. A surge to 2761.50 reacted down sharply to 2753.00 by midnight, and fresh highs up to 2762.50 after Europe’s opens reacted down to 2755.50. Despite those wide swings, 2758.50 was just tested again, and minutes later the highs are now being pierced by 3 ticks.

If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
To the degree that yesterday’s late drop was triggered by the non-financial Saudi news, it’s likely to be retraced back to its 2799.00 origin. Perhaps higher, to trigger the Ascending Triangle’s upside. Its upside is currently threatened by having closed under yesterday morning’s 2751.50-2754.00 lows, which is the last touch of the pattern’s uptrending support. Gapping open back above those lows and extending higher can reject yesterday’s late break, and put the pattern’s upside back on-track. The pattern’s downside would otherwise be triggered by closing back under Friday’s 2732.00-2735.00 lows.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2759.75 would be likely to trigger the 2757.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2765.75 would be likely also to exceed the 2764.75 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal. Exiting the open under 2752.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.