The First Trade

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Wednesday’s gap up to the morning’s bias-up signal failed its attempt to extend higher, putting into play an offsetting test of the bias-down signal (2747.50 basis Sep). Probing back under Monday-Tuesday’s highs barely touched Tuesday’s cash session close before reversing back up. And up, and up, and up. The morning’s bias-up target was reached — but held into the noon hour, when recovering it could have invalidated the morning’s bias objective. The afternoon bias environment’s bias-up made no progress until the bias environment began lapsing. The delay was compensated by resuming the rally through its bias-up target. Buyers gained traction into the final hour, which might have been fulfilled by extending higher into and out of the close. Nevertheless, closing above the Monday-Tuesday multi-session range was a breakout, awaiting confirmation of a second consecutive higher close Thursday.

Overnight action’s new info…
Extending 2 points higher through Wednesday’s close to 2778.50 was retraced to 2774.00. Then the rally resumed into and out Europe’s opens to 2783.50. Reacting back down tested yesterday’s cash session close at 2776.00, which has bounced several points.

If, then…
REMINDER: The front-month rolls forward to Sep at Thursday’s open, which is trading at a 4-point premium to Jun... Already fulfilling the next higher objective yesterday at 2769.00-2770.25 — let alone trending through it — on the same day as first decisively exceeding its 2747.00-2751.00 trigger — isn’t likely to hesitate extending higher if the rally remains intact. Already dipping back down to unchanged does threaten to also test the earlier 2774.00 low, which would qualify as that hesitation. But maintaining a recovery above 2778.50 would be likely also to extend yesterday’s breakout.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2781.50 would be likely to trigger the 2779.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2775.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Volatility expanded Tuesday compared to Monday. The 2639.00-2752.00 range was an outside day, that still closed within Monday’s range. And like Monday, price action was centered around 2743.00-2747.00. No “unfinished business” was left outstanding by either session. This is more than enough to qualify as a multi-session range. Another interesting feature shared by the two sessions is their opening surges, and those opening surges being reversed back under the open. Tuesday’s post-open reversal even probed Monday’s low, and still avoided melting down. Buyers gained traction for their effort, but retraced too little to indicate that sellers were done.

Overnight action’s new info…
Where Tuesday afternoon’s rally stopped short, the overnight has stepped in. Globex’s open immediately pierced the intraday high up to 2753.25. That was the afternoon’s bias-up target, and its resistance quickly reacted back down 3 points. The rally soon resumed and extended to 2758.00 before dipping 4 points through Europe’s opens. Now 2758.00 is being attacked again.

If, then…
The market is a clearinghouse of competing influences. Breakouts identify the stronger influences, validated by confirmations and invalidated by rejections. Monday-Tuesday’s multi-session range is the influence of 2743.00-2747.00‘s attraction. Surges above and below its 4-point range are the attempts to shake loose of that attraction. Tuesday’s outside day doesn’t indicate any lesser attraction, because price continually returned to the 4-point range. The attraction isn’t shrinking, but the effort to shake loose of its attraction is growing. Gapping up this morning as is currently indicated remains vulnerable to reversing back down, like Monday and Tuesday’s opening surges. But unless the open takes their reactions back into the Monday-Tuesday range — and preferably back into 2743.00-2747.00‘s range — the breakout can extend intraday to 2765.00-2766.25 — the same aggressive and substantial rally Tuesday afternoon could have produced. The bearish scenario all but requires quickly rejecting the breakout’s sponsorship before it can attract reinforcements. A breakout either way beyond the Monday-Tuesday range would still require confirmation Thursday, more so for a break higher.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 Exiting the open under 2750.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2754.75 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2757.25 would be likely to trigger bias-up.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Monday’s open teased at launching another gap-and-run session. The open did gap up 8 points to 2742.00, and almost immediately extended another 8 points to 2749.25. That post-open surge was retraced almost immediately, too, but the gap up was maintained. Its extension never really repeated, nor was it rejected, containing all price action for the balance of the session. The 2743.00-2747.00 target area was thoroughly tested, and its range defined the session’s mid-range. Its upper-end defined the close — fulfilling buying pressure, without gaining traction or rejecting it.

Overnight action’s new info…
The 2743.00-2747.00 not only persisted initially overnight, and was also influential, pushing price back down from its upper-end to its lower-end. the lower-end was tested down to 2742.00 before midnight, then touched again at Europe’s opens. Quickly recovering back up to 2747.00 worked higher its way higher to attack 2752.00. A reaction down is now testing yesterday’s 2749.25 high as support.

If, then…
Yesterday was the first close above a 2-week trading range. Last week began with the first close under the same 2-week trading range. It was recovered back into the range instead of producing a second consecutive lower close. The pattern is slightly different now — especially having closed within 2743.00-2747.00 resistance instead of beyond it — but no second consecutive higher close today would still not be bullish for the rally effort. Yesterday’s highs are only being overlapped overnight, but that’s still an effort. So, dipping back to the overnight lows can’t be relied upon to recover. Holding at or above yesterday’s lows would keep the door open to extending higher.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2753.25 would be likely to trigger exceed the 2751.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2747.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Friday morning’s bias signal persisted through the noon hour, as it often does on Fridays. The week’s third gap-and-run participated as the open’s 16-point gap up extended another 16 points higher into the afternoon bias timing window. The bias environment ranged flat-to-lower into the final hour, which retraced half of the intraday gain. But only temporarily, bouncing into the close. All intraday upside objectives were fulfilled, and the afternoon bias environment was exited weakly, but sellers failed to exploit the vulnerabilities.

Overnight action’s new info…
Sunday night’s Globex open gapped down and extended to attack Friday’s late pullback low down to 2729.00. The dip was soon recovered back into positive territory above 2735.00 and through Friday’s 2737.00 high to attack 2740.00. Consolidating back down to Friday’s highs into AND out of Europe’s opens seemed apprehensive, but eventually surged to 2746.75.

If, then…
As we discussed during the weekend’s Saturday Review, fresh highs were likely if not immediately rejecting Friday’s gains. Fresh highs would target 2743.00 or 2747.00, and would be vulnerable to reversing down. Coming to within 1 tick of the upper-target fulfills it, but its rejection must exit the open at least back under 2743.00, if not also back under Friday’s highs or close. Friday afternoon’s break lower had potential for extending to 2723.50-2724.25, which would be the likely objective if last night’s rally is rejected. Renewing the morning’s bias-up or simply holding it could evolve into another gap-and-run session, essentially triggering the bullish scenario described Saturday.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2743.00 would be likely to trigger the 2741.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2737.50 would be likely at least to trigger the 2735.50 bias-up signal.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Thursday’s 2719.00 open was greeted by a very recent breakout from what had been a contained overnight range. Its The 2727.00 origin was likely to be retraced, despite extending down to the morning’s 2707.00 low. Its recovery peaked at the morning’s 2722.50 bias environment high, which was a 61.8% retracement of the pre-open breakout’s segment. And it was enough for another drop to the afternoon’s 2699.75 the afternoon’s low. Bouncing from there was still overlapping the morning’s low into the close — neither rejecting its break nor extending it.

Overnight action’s new info…
Sentiment shows no signs of pessimism as this morning’s Employment Situation report approaches. Thursday morning’s 2707.00 low held a couple of tests as support until finally surging to 2718.50 into of Europe’s opens (no defensive posturing). A quick 5-point dip recovered to probe a fresh high by 1 point, but only momentarily as price action since then has only fluctuated narrowly around the 2718.50 prior high.

If, then…
Closing back under the morning’s low decisively Thursday would have triggered a signal, that the corrective bounce from Tuesday afternoon had peaked, resuming Tuesday’s break under the prior two-week range. Still overlapping the morning’s low at least keeps the burden of proof on buyers. Buyers already failed to produce a second consecutive higher close Thursday above 2711.00 and 2715.00, and now a second consecutive lower close Friday would confirm the trend reversing down. Nevertheless, initial strength Friday would be credible for extending higher intraday. Otherwise, oversold RSIs at Thursday’s low weren’t retested overnight, and their attraction would be a minimum objective if gapping up is avoided or quickly falters.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Preliminary levels are not contemplated ahead of an Employment Situation report.