The First Trade

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Tuesday’s 2681.00 gap up was under the 2688.50 overnight highs that had probed above prior highs. The rejection kept alive a string of “ineffectual optimism” that had defined price action since Friday afternoon’s 2659.75 low. That was largely retraced during Tuesday morning’s drop, but the afternoon plunged to 2616.00 during the bias environment. The low filled a two-week old gap that held, leaving a choppy afternoon that closed at 2634.00-2635.00.

Overnight action’s new info…
Tuesday afternoon’s bounce initially firmed to attack 2640.00. That lack of upside commitment was eventually exploited by a single one-hour drop to 2626.00 well before midnight. Europe’s opens triggered a surge to 2637.00, which was retraced as quickly as it had developed. Retraced and reversed to fresh overnight lows. A dip attacking 2618.00 is now trying to recover 2624.00.

If, then…
The gap filled by Tuesday’s low had formed by stopping optimistically short of fully bottoming before launching a rally — the rally that has now been fully retraced. Tuesday’s bounce stopped short of recovering “higher prior lows” that would have signaled the gap held. And overnight action hasn’t extended Tuesday’s bounce. So, regardless of yesterday afternoon’s bounce having stalled the decline, Wednesday is being greeted by the ongoing test of a tenuous gap. Potential for another corrective bounce this morning probably diminishes greatly if not already underway coming out of the open, targeting the gap back up to Tuesday’s close. Trying to resume the decline would find more dominoes ready to fall.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2621.25 would be likely to trigger the 2624.25 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2634.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Monday’s higher open at 2677.00 reacted down a couple of times into negative territory under 2668.00, but didn’t extend. A bigger bounce attacking 2683.00 only stretched the rubber band, and snapping back down eventually probed fresh session lows attacking 2657.00 — filling the week-old gap where Friday’s 2660.00 low had stopped optimistically short. The final hour bounced to unchanged at 2670.00-2671.00. No unfinished business was left outstanding above or below.

Overnight action’s new info…
Yesterday’s late bounce has extended higher relentlessly. First gradually, and eventually a little steeper up to 2688.00. That is 5 points above Sunday and Monday’s highs, probing further into “higher prior lows.”

If, then…
Repeated instances of “ineffectual optimism” began with Friday’s late bounce that had stopped short of support. Its minimum consequence was fulfilled yesterday by afternoon’s lower low, which held a test of support. Several other instances of ineffectual optimism developed before the test, suggesting the test would ultimately fail to hold. Really? The rally since is indicating a gap up above that entire range. Obviously, maintaining a gap up above resistance would contradict the objective of breaking under support. The question is whether the gap up is maintained, or if a gap up is even still indicated at the open. Maintaining a gap up would get every benefit of the doubt for extending higher. Rejecting the gap up anyway would be that much more bearish.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2680.25 would at least be likely to trigger the 2675.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2687.75 would be likely also to exceed the 2683.00 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Friday’s last 45 minutes ultimately bounced. And not a little, rallying 13 points in 3 distinct legs. But the late surge to 2673.00 originated from fresh session lows at 2660.00. The session until then was an ongoing series of lower lows and lower highs, beginning from unchanged at 2693.00. And its intraday downtrend persisted through the afternoon bias environment to fulfill day-one of a bearish WedEX setup.

Overnight action’s new info…
Sunday night’s gap up to 2683.00-2685.00 immediately extended Friday’s late bounce. And then it immediately ended. Consolidating back down to 2673.00-2674.00 repeatedly had stopped short of filling the gap back to Friday’s 2671.50 close. Finally probing lower through Europe’s opens only got to 2666.50, which is already reacting back up to unchanged around 2673.00.

If, then…
Having been influential Friday afternoon, WedEX should be very influential Monday morning. That doesn’t preclude gapping up or down, however sharply, before the post-open influence takes over. Neither does it prevent opening flat. Meanwhile, optimism at Friday’s low — stopping short of an outstanding gap around 2658.00 — is persisting overnight. Opening above 2685.00 would have suggested that something has changed dramatically, and that’s not currently indicated. But pre-open or post-open action selling should soon become aggressive if the ongoing optimism is bearish from a contrarian perspective.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2677.50 would be likely to trigger the 2675.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2662.75 would be likely to trigger the 2665.50 bias-down signal.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Thursday began with a clean slate, having neutralized two pieces of “unfinished business below” overnight and pre-open at 2703.75 and 2702.25. A lot of selling pressure had been expended during Globex just to get there. Holding those levels as support through the open would have established a floor for the day. But the gap down extended, setting the opposite tone for the day, and reinforcing the bearish WedEX. Trending down throughout the day to 2681.50 neutralized attractions below, like “lower prior highs” and filling the gap back to Monday’s close. Another opportunity to establish a floor, but even a 12-point spike up to 2699.00 was barely maintained through the close, reacting down to 2691.00.

Overnight action’s new info…
Globex’s initial objective was to retrace most of the 12-point spike up not already retraced intraday. And bouncing off of 2688.00 was mostly recovered back to the spike’s high. But another drop into and out of Europe’s opens retraced most of yesterday afternoon’s recovery back down to 2683.00. Its reaction has gradually worked its way higher, now testing 2696.00.

If, then…
Friday morning isn’t required to bounce, and yesterday’s headline reaction hasn’t brought in new sponsorship. Rallying this morning without gapping up would be doomed to failure, although rallying at all would still be challenged by the afternoon’s bearish WedEX influence. Maintaining a gap down under yesterday’s low would form a “session-long decline” setup, which can be magnified by expiration’s influence.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2685.75 would be likely also to trigger the 2688.00 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2692.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Wednesday’s on-again / off-again bullishness fulfilled minimum upside objectives by probing 3 points above 2715.00. No unfinished business above was left outstanding, having met the morning’s 2718.25 bias-up target and triggering the afternoon’s no-bias. While relevant resistance held, relevant support did not, closing back under the 2711.50 down to 2709.00-2710.00 Sounds bearish, and it may be. But the day was also wide-ranging and choppy, so trending has yet to reverse down. But that still triggered a bearish WedEX, albeit passive. Unfinished business below was left outstanding at oversold RSIs at Wednesday’s 2703.75 low and at the morning’s 2702.25 no-bias parameter.

Overnight action’s new info…
Bouncing at the Globex open soon peaked at 2713.25 and hovered there well beyond midnight. Then price gave way, first back down to natural support at Wednesday’s 2709.00-2710.00 close. Then more dramatically back down to Wednesday’s 2703.75 low. Bouncing into Europe’s opens tested 2709.00-2710.00 but retraced it all as quickly. A narrowing range has developed back down to 2703.75.

If, then…
Already responding to there being no unfinished business above seems bearish. And it may be. But quickly trying to exploit the situation also can mean less sponsorship. If reinforcements aren’t attracted, then the effort will have been premature, and its trapped sponsorship will fuel a short-squeeze. Gapping down under 2702.25 can still reinforce the bearish WedEX. Holding a test of 2702.25 can establish a low that holds through tomorrow morning.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2702.25 would be likely to trigger the 2705.50 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2711.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.