The First Trade

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Thursday’s noon hour drop fell nearly 23 points to 2457.00 at the afternoon bias environment low. This tested the “lower prior highs” and gap outstanding, singularly represented by 2458.50. They held their test, as any lower would have entered a meltdown threshold — highly unlikely during the same session that prints a new trend extreme in the opposite direction. A 16-point reaction up to 2473.00 avoided that, and also avoided closing under Friday and Monday’s 2462.75-2463.50 lows, which would have signaled a trend change.

Overnight action’s new info…
The afternoon’s recovery also closed above Friday and Monday’s 2469.00-2470.50 highs. That would have been outright bullish, except the recovery extended to test Tuesday and Wednesday’s 2473.50 “higher prior lows.” Having neutralized its attraction, Globex immediately began reversing down to 2462.25. Flat-to-higher ranging up to 2467.00 wasn’t swayed much either way by Europe’s opens. A dip to fresh overnight lows at 2461.50 (which yesterday’s last reaction down held instead of triggering a new downleg) was recovered nearly entirely back up to 2467.00, and now sits at this morning’s 2465.50 bias-down signal.

If, then…
Even the most bullish resolution would not necessarily avoid probing negative territory Friday. But most bullish scenarios must recover that probe through a relevant timing window. Invoking the Friday Factors — a short-squeeze triggered by two days of impending illiquidity — could end the week back in safe territory. Meanwhile, a Head & Shoulders pattern has begun forming. It’s not very symmetrical, but that would be offset if the ferocity of its right neckline (the plunge into yesterday’s low) were duplicated Friday, also triggered by Friday Factors.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2463.50 would likely trigger the 2465.50 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2469.00 would not be likely to trigger bias-down.

Phonetic dictation…
well looks like I miss some of the fun that yesterday when I left at the final hour but we caught some good stuff some intentionally some luckily this pattern needed to extend higher we gave buyers a little benefit of the doubt that the opens Gap up even if it didn’t extend would initially would extend eventually and they didn’t give it up not through the bias environment so that benefit of the doubt went that far at least sellers were marginalized for the morning but not the afternoon which plunged through its inflection point down and Down and Down but we did catch by having working levels having levels working as to what would it ecline hit what levels couldn’t hit what would be the maximum levels it could hit hit the maximum 5850 are oversold there so they require retest eventually but all other factors said that was at like 5850 was only being overlapped at the low despite being probed by several bars lower and lower and so the calculable reaction up with 6550 that was hit that was responsive back under 6150 would signal momentum reversing down keep that in mind or 6150 would signal momentum reversing down and it was pierced it was pierced by only three tix at its lowest point and only overlapped and of course I was here at the for the final hour but the final hour did rally back that rally back recovered 61861 .8% of the the drop actually got a little bit higher the cash session Futures closed pretty much at the 61 8th was an interesting relationship here as well we get rid of ticks and get to the bid on the highs we basically have a nice little 61 Nitra Trey Smith extend 60181 relationships in here I won’t go through the mall with the point is that this was not new sponsorship that triggered the recovery that took price even higher than the 6650 then we looked at originally even the higher highs that was just a reaction it’s all part of the same leg it’s really interesting that what was avoided we’ll come back to that in a moment what was avoided was a trend change so in other words new High clothes interim dip High clothes there’s no higher hi I’m planning out a higher high subsequent to that if there were one but even the higher 108 hyzaar overnight High’s don’t do it had that interim low been broken through the clothes we’d have a trend change not only did that overnight low or I’m sorry the interim low which actually is Friday and Monday is Lowe’s not only did that hold Friday and Monday size we recovered as well know they overlapped and they not been overlap and recovered as well that would be outright bullish this wouldn’t be that I also went on to test what is a normal it’s morning where to probe lower weather that where to probe under Friday’s low or the probe negative territory whatever that might have been is what even in the most bullish inerio even in a recovery at having recovered and avoided the trend change still potential for the morning to have follow through so let’s move forward and in fact we have followed through overnight and got to a certain point it actually got to the point where I basically we’re yesterday’s bias environment had gotten to it 120 as of 1:20 bounced noticed something I talk about this every day and today I’ll say it in a different way your UPS opens didn’t influence overnight Market and as we talked about intraday that doesn’t happen you don’t reverse the trend on the same day it just doesn’t it’s why I don’t ever have a reversal signal on the same day as a trend extreme but that was yesterday for a slightly aggressive attempt to reverse the trend is repeated today it will succeed if this aggressive attempt yesterday to reverse the trend is not repeated today it won’t succeed will be looking at new highs soon enough he have a resumption or repeat that is of yesterday’s big down leg is a voided today and it can be attempted so long as it’s recovered again through email back above Lowe’s window it cetera we close lower if we close from this hype back under yesterday’s low that would be close enough to duplicate might want to get a couple points in there just for decisiveness I don’t think the market will have any problem doing that if that’s the case if it’s not rejecting yesterday’s well it is unfolding a big head and shoulders and we’ll talk about that Saturday at the Saturday review one way or the other because there’s some very specific targets the upside and of the downside if there’s no attempt to try to repeat yesterday’s decline the upside is still 2484 2490 that hasn’t changed if there is an attempt to try to repeat yesterday’s downside that does recover intraday that’ll actually give us much higher Target’s to the upside again these are levels and constructs will examine more deeply Saturday and the Saturday review but know that this is a very pivotal point alright let’s look at other markets currency 25 this can just continue eating hire 50 is it started finally natural gas and I said very very bullish Behavior yesterday both in terms of the responsiveness to the 295 by signal especially having neutralize the attraction below just the prior day and then the restrained optimism to hover here it’s not pessimism but restrained optimism just shade off of pessimism over here above 295 using 295 is support looks good looks bullish and overnight forward here overnight holding up I don’t have really any spread or and the the roll over to the front month from August to set and price to pretty much the same levels alright any questions let me know I need the recording here running late for that but I will see you at the open all right good luck today .

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Another narrowly ranging day? The fourth consecutive, and even Wednesday’s FOMC policy statement couldn’t shake the recent streak. Pre-open probing 1-point above Tuesday’s 2478.75 high was reversed down for the balance of the session to test the 2472.00 overnight low. The cash session close blipped-up to 2475.00.

Overnight action’s new info…
Wednesday’s late blip-up from its fresh low was extended immediately, and then relentlessly, back up to Wednesday’s 2478.50 opening high. A nearly 3-point dip into Europe’s opens was snapped back up to fresh highs at 2480.00. Another dip is back to hovering under 2478.50.

If, then…
Once again, neither sellers nor buyers gained traction for their efforts yesterday. So, trending in either direction this morning won’t be very credible without a gap up originating it. The open is two hours away, but currently indicated AT the past two sessions’ highs. A catalyst for pushing higher could by lying among the several pre-open econ reports scheduled. Pre-open earnings announcements haven’t been any help.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2479.50 would be likely to trigger the 2478.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2475.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Phonetic dictation…
good morning and welcome it is Thursday at 7 Thursdays morning market tour all systems are go that is the chart room is up we had an issue yesterday with turns out it was Adobe they were experiencing some transmission issues that affected ability to maintain the room and broadcast my connectivity administrative panels were locked out or slow to respond and their audio facilities weren’t handling the band with but everything seems go as far as that’s concerned today I was the market well because we’re interesting. It looks like we’ve got rained here lots of relatively speaking not huge. Minor but it’s all happening overnight there is an overnight dip Thursday into Friday is relatively narrow range and Mondays inside day essentially and said that there is an overnight Gap up Monday night or Tuesday Morning in the Tuesday’s relatively narrow day and then Wednesday’s essentially inside day I’m in really was almost inside a remarkable and two guards when is sitting at the highs for one thing and for another thing and that is very late the other thing is well sorry that in itself would qualify strictly technically as a session 1 rally I’d be a little suspicious just because it’s coming out of a range instead of actually you know trending down through the afternoon and rejecting the trend down what’s really big rejected is just the rain Jing but in any case that’s a good start to the upside is to maintain a gap up especially if it’s extended through the opening 15 minutes not doing that doesn’t prevent extending higher anyway we instill open a door with in the highs and having been improved above the eyes pre-open still get that screw it attitude from the market if you don’t what is the poster of the two vultures sitting in the desert pardon my French but page they’re sent one says the other patience my ass I’m going to kill something instead of waiting for the opening they’re going to go for it so I would anticipate if the open even if it’s not gapping up so long as it doesn’t Gap up and fail to maintain a gap up so long as it doesn’t Gap up try extending higher and fail to maintain that extension so long as it just opens and holds through the open I’m still going to be looking for a fresh eyes not going to look for them to maintain will look for a syllable look for that to be doomed to failure anyway because it will be originating from an instant I’m sorry will be originating from a lack of traction without rejecting that lack of tracks without grabbing up in extending higher but in this instance in this pattern I’m going to give it a benefit of the doubt so long as an open towards the upper end of the rain isn’t rejected through the open I will be very happy to buy or at least be exposed to the potential whipsaw probing above the highs and extending higher 2484 in just the same way that a reaction down or a gap down and trending I just the same way that would have found buyers I would expect this to find sellers whether its 84 or 90 and it couldn’t be today so that those them are the potential pads for today the upside again unusual just want to be clear about it doesn’t require maintaining and preferably extending an opening Gap up this is the overnight it’s tempered enthusiasm temporary or restrained optimism I’ll give it a better for the doubt if it’s just slope I’ll give it a long as it’s and is well with Chad left outstanding at 1670 Target fulfilled it probing largest salon on silver by the way pull back limit now is 1660 to maintain its upside long Bond not following through right up to the  .

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Tuesday’s gap up to 2478.00 neutralized all unfinished business and attractions above. Even attractions that had yet to be created —  the morning’s 2477.00 bias-up target, whose 2472.00 bias-up signal wouldn’t trigger for another 45 minutes. Reinforcements weren’t attracted to extend higher, and a reaction down attacked 2472.00. Probing the morning’s high during the noon hour also held, and also reacted down to attack 2472.00, albeit a little less closely.

Overnight action’s new info…
Eventually dipping to a fresh low actually touched 2472.00. Firming greeted Europe’s opens at Tuesday’s 2472.50-2474.25 lows. That triggered a rally which has extended to attack 2478.00.

If, then…
Buyers gained no traction for Tuesday effort, having fulfilled objectives without creating any new ones. And the afternoon dip requires gapping up above Tuesday’s highs to rally this morning — at least, for a rally to be credible, and for it to be durable. That could even form a “session-long rally” setup targeting 2484.00 or 2490.00. Holding an opening test of yesterday’s highs would be very vulnerable to reversing back under yesterday’s lows to 2469.00 or 2458.50.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2477.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2478.75 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2472.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2469.00 bias-down signal.

Phonetic dictation…
good morning and welcome it is Wednesday it’s time from Wednesday’s Morning Market to her and not a lot to go over overnight there’s one interesting development and one interesting lack of development the interest interesting development is 2470 tubing touched remember that was yesterday’s bicep signal it was never actually touched intraday the open and gapped up and immediately fulfill the 2477 bias up Target its reaction down stop short of 72 it was much too late by the time it was even attacking 72 to have any degree reliability that I might even break it was likelier to hold and do it by some signals do and bicep environments and that is defined the Rangers lower it did and it produced a retest to the hi-hat 78-75 that was the objective that was the objective of the afternoon Valance and actually the objective was 78 but likely to touch something that is this morning speaking of careless of the RC is tested retested resistance of a 960 area reacted down fresh low there is an attraction below its 78 if sellers were to become so inclined the pound still despite yesterday’s reaction down from its cap up still likely to prove a fresh High no real signal on the Livi even the Euro fulfilled its objective in the case of a retest of Friday’s High the objective was tested reacted back down neutralize the attraction back to Monday’s close overnight is dipped even deeper not arbitrarily deeper it’s testing a cell signal 1 1657 port in it that holds or not but holds if there’s going to be any higher Heights gold backing off further down to the Rally’s the Rally’s initial initial objective about that is natural support which was for the backing and filling maybe even starting a new down leg or extending the deadline as opposed to finishing this down leg and recovering okay any questions let me know I will see you at the open good luck today  .

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Monday’s open trended down, and then so did the balance of the morning, essentially ignoring a bullish WedEX. The selling ended upon touching the 2463.50 overnight low as the morning bias environment began lapsing. The balance of the session session rallied back to the 2470.00 overnight high, and through it briefly. Its reaction down ended the cash session at the 2469.00 opening print.

Overnight action’s new info…
Once again taking its cue from overseas, Globex initially ranged narrowly around 2468.00. A last-minute dip greeted Europe’s opens at 2466.75 which triggered a 5-point rally to now attack 2473.00. That’s 1-2 ticks short of the natural resistance of a retracement of Thursday afternoon’s range.

If, then…
Delaying follow-through to Friday’s break lower had made its dip likely to recover, or else required the break to gap down. It’s not gapping down. Delaying the recovery of Friday’s break lower made its reaction up likely to retest its origin, which would produce a new high. Resistance from Thursday’s range up to 2474.50 might interfere, but the burden of proof is on sellers.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2473.50 would be likely to trigger the 2472.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2469.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Phonetic dictation…
good morning welcome it is Tuesday it’s time for Tuesday’s morning market tour I took long enough but we’ve got a rally going as has been the case often but recently consistently the game gets going with Europe’s opens here’s the night before for instance the night before I think for yourself but anyway it is producing the anticipated break higher the brake higher was anticipated because Friday’s break lower which didn’t gain any traction already if it were going to extend down needed to extend down yesterday and didn’t produced instead and inside day and the delay when there’s a gap left outstanding in the direction of the trend the delay and extending down from creating that Gap tends to fill that Gap next and as a consequence there’s also increased potential to retest just the origin of that break lower that it may not be like seem to be a substantial break lower or I’m going down Trend and that doesn’t make it any easier or likelier to be retraced but it’s just a simple principle and so the origin of the brake lower which is basically the highs is next in line to be tested as opposed to Breaking lower breaking lower compensating for the delay and extending down extending Friday’s break lower down should cat down at this morning but as you can see not that’s not really indicated here were probing above the last two sessions highs probing about the last two sessions High’s into Friday’s range Thursday’s ranges back here there’s a gap back to 7150 clothes that’s natural resistance there are 61 a treatment back into its range back into its afternoon range that is that’s 24.73 7325 or within a tick or two of that 61 a treatment resistance there is a new Globex Trend extreme outstanding historically mandated to be retested intraday yet to be were tested at all it’s 7625 from before Thursday’s open so there’s attractions above and play the traction below the pound not extending at the moment yesterday’s break higher but it does have attractions above essentially back to a new high the Looney has just continued stretching that rubber band and now that gyro which has left the Gap outstanding Friday’s hi it’s not a gap that requires being filled because of how was created opening within its own range holding its own range intraday but if it is for tested which any delay and extending down will then require if it is were tested it will be likely to be retested up to Once 11731 1755 gold stop just a little short of its 1259 17 x Tire Target next hour driving about 12:36 and 12:44 yesterday and it’s reaction down at the time how old the gapping pressure without damaging pausedback under again back under 4625 would resume the decline route and finally natural gas which is really extended this pull-back that is the maximum pull back at least on a closing basis preferably though at all down to 288 just needs to close web 295 to confirm that it held and that momentum is reversing up but that’s it for the pull back for the reaction down to continue to be classified as a full pack substantial is and maybe any questions go see you before they open  .

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Friday morning’s opening dip was a test and retest of Thursday’s 2465.50 low. The dip was also a test of the morning’s 2463.50 bias-down target. Both held, and were recovered through the noon hour to 2470.00. Reacting down 4 points tried breaking Thursday’s low again. But Friday afternoon wasn’t going to accomplish something the morning had tried already and failed to do. Recovering through the last half-hour maintained a bullish WedEX influence.

Overnight action’s new info…
The briefest of blips-up at Sunday night’s open had soon reversed down, once again testing Thursday’s 2465.50 low. That was extended to attack 2363.50. Firming 4 points was reversed at Europe’s opens to retest 2363.50. But only temporarily, as the 2467.50 interim high is being recovered now.

If, then…
Friday afternoon wasn’t going to accomplish something that the morning had tried already and failed to do. Another attempt Monday morning shouldn’t have much luck, either. If the market is ready to break under 2465.50, then the open should maintain a gap under it, and extend down. Otherwise, holding its support through the open — or any support — would help to launch the morning’s bullish WedEX influence.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2466.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2464.50 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2462.00 would be likely to trigger bias-down.

Phonetic dictation…
good morning welcome it is Monday it’s time for Monday’s morning market tour and we have one big influence one other influence that are between them I think not totally on disconnected from each other but between them I think going to dictate this morning of course the big influence and I say big influence meaning and top billing but it’s not the most influential it’s a very sporadic thing once a month the Wednesday expiration indicator wed x when X is bullish this time around it had a very very minor influence on Friday afternoon if we’re not yet assured of calling that and influence but at least coincidentally from the bias environments entry until the clothes price was biased up by the narrowest of definitions not trending up necessarily but biased up as in at least pull backs are recovered in this one was and if by if the wed x is fulfilled in this case bullish wed x is fulfilled even by the narrowest of definitions its influence on Monday morning should be aggressive not just absorbing a pull back but actually trending up in trending up obviously which brings us to the second influence and II influence is actually a more common one it’s the same influence in fact that we saw Friday morning that basically told us back here when we updated on Friday afternoon even here we were expecting or at least keeping the door wide open to the bullish when X is influence because sellers were doing something that they weren’t likely to get done and that was to break under level on a Friday afternoon that had been tested on a Friday morning and failed the break and that was just the previous low in this case it happened to be the previous day’s low 6550 tested pretty thoroughly including dip to what was the mornings bias down signal 6350 or Target and so that having held in the morning if they try something Friday morning and don’t get it done the odds are very low very low that’s going to succeed with wet sponsorship is left over Friday afternoon pretty high percentage trade how why is that influential this morning well because they’re trying it again they tried it again last night 6550 they tried it or after into out of Europe’s opens tried it again here 6550 even 6350 now has been touched again that was the relevant level Friday morning then ultimately to find the low some unfinished business below as well but here’s what what’s up in the middle of the Friday afternoon so we don’t have the greatest reliability the influence has nothing to do with the this isn’t Friday afternoon anymore it is new sponsorship so if 6550 this morning’s bias down signal itself 6450 if these levels don’t hold especially 6550 through the open 6450 s by Stalin signal triggers of course the bullish wed x no no bullets goes away and we expect first of all that it that if there is any Bounce It has nothing to do with that but secondly that the bullish wood axe is no longer influential so it’s very important that that 6550 hold its test if it’s even tested Post open and therefore does a as a similar reaction as with Friday afternoon just as aggressive actually as was the last half hours recovery throughout the morning but if it doesn’t and 6550 isn’t holding through the open then probably 6450 s going to break lower that is triggered by us down and we won’t be looking for a bullish wed x and by the way Friday Friday’s test Friday’s relevant test that held in the morning that was or I should say failed to break in the morning and so held its retest in the afternoon it’s going to break today we’re probably going to gap down under at so long as we stay away from gapping down under 6550 probably the bullish wed x prevails otherwise the downside is not limited mean there is 46 we already did test 46 isn’t actually Nursery there is at this point 58 59 5750 it’s not a little bit of downside but we don’t necessarily fall off the edge could silver that’s how much firmer overnight and is holding up but the point is it does have 16 70 and playgold as well as higher targets and play and its former overnight as well but closing in on the 12th 5970 Target Long Bond had resumed the rally on queue after a pause on Wednesday not all of it was maintained Thursday but it wasn’t reversed or reject it meanwhile be upside potential or objective 155 us-6 remains and play despite the overnight Paws again crude oil firmer here but still triggering a cell signal still trying to maintain the cell signal under 44.94 sorry 4515 would confirm at this point momentum has reversed and the objective being to retest the Lowe’s pattern not just lower prioritize at 4345 4355 do have outlined but actually retracement and potentially even a fresh low at this stage as long as the delay has been and finally natural gas which I just didn’t think we’re going to get out of here without feeling this Gap back to Monday’s clothes and potentially the next Gap lower and fact Friday sewing pressure extended even deeper than that so really this would have been an overnight low before before was it last Friday is open that tested 292 became likely to be retested as well and it is being rude tested overnight we can have lower the Buy Signal back to to 9850 that’s not that 292 Camp Road I mean there’s this gap down doesn’t require being filled we just looked at a gap like this in the Aussie only inverted because the Gap was created by gapping up to the upper end of the same range and closing within it or around that ranges extreme remember the Odyssey was the inverse of that the gap down was created by gapping still within the range and closing within the range so that Gap doesn’t have to be filled before extending down and so again and natural gas doesn’t have to fill this Gap didn’t have to fill this gap before extending up will now we returned to its orbit after being productive so now there is potential to fill that Gap this test of 292 isn’t already recovering back above 298 fairly short order preferably today okay any questions let me know and I will see you before the open good luck today  .