The First Trade

 Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
[This paragraph’s levels are all basis Jun.] Not for lack of trying, but for trying too little. We knew at Tuesday’s close that not gapping up Wednesday above 2434.25-2435.50would likely extend the decline to at least 2424.25. Wednesday’s 3-point gap up from Tuesday’s 2428.75 cash session close extended to test Tuesday morning’s 2434.25 highs. The prior highs held, and the noon hour collapsed to 2424.00. The balance of the session rallied back to the morning’s high, and almost formed a Pivot Reversal except for not maintaining its fresh high.

Overnight action’s new info…
[This paragraph’s levels are all basis Jun.] Globex action initially hugged Thursday’s last-minute reaction down to 2430.50 but never even pierced it. Firming greeted Europe’s opens back up at Thursday’s last-minute 2435.00 high. Fresh highs eventually developed, now probing Tuesday’s late high by 1 point.

If, then…
[At this morning’s open, the front-month rolls forward in ES to Sep to Jun. Going forward, all levels are quoted basis Sep, trading at a 2.00-2.50 discount.] Forming all but the last element of a setup can have the opposite resolution. So, missing Wednesday’s chance at a Pivot Reversal had a chance to resolve today as bearishly as it could have been bullish. Market Wrap addressed why that might not be a problem today — the late reaction down wasn’t too late to be credible, but it was too shallow to prevent resuming the rally overnight. And it seems the rally has, in fact, resumed overnight, targeting “unfinished business above at 2436.00, 2437.75, and at least one more new trend high close. Pre-open ECB headlines must still be navigated, and then ex-FBI director Comey’s Senate committee hearing. Regardless of the catalyst, failing to gap up would put yesterday’s late failure back in control, with potential down to 2419.25.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters, now available basis Sep] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2435.25 would be likely to trigger the 2433.25 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2431.25 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Phonetic dictation…
good morning welcome welcome back it is Thursday it’s time for Thursday’s Morning Market or it is expiration week upcoming one week prior to Thursday morning prior to expiration monthly or quarterly Express rolls right here June Now set overnight will be rolling for updating the and done except for the clothes which didn’t maintain its probe above the Morningside that every single element was done without that final element often makes a set up in this is true of any setups in my work off and makes it set up as sentimental extreme to one and One Direction the opposite direction that it would have been in other words this would have been pretty bullish except for that final element which now makes it pretty Parish that’s not always the case and we had one clue to that that I want her to close to that that I discussed yesterday it made me suspicious about the rejection even though the rejection came into our the reaction down the failure to actually fulfill that setup came and time it was before coming within 3 minutes of the cash and close so it was real price action it wasn’t really slow and by the time we get to the today power throws a wrench in this works I’m trying to recover then yes a slow doesn’t have to be retested but probably will be down to 24 1925 used to be 2421 21 15 days June now 1925 basis coming out momentarily with the.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Tuesday morning’s 2432.00 bias-down signal barely avoided triggering, late, after testing its 2426.50 bias-down signal overnight and attacking it post-open. An offsetting test of the morning’s 2438.25 bias-up signal became “unfinished business above.” It was ignored by choppy ranging through the afternoon bias environment, which broke higher at its exit. But only shallowly to 2435.75, and briefly before the final hour plunged 8 points to test 2428.00.

Overnight action’s new info…
Globex action began by firming, and rose steadily up to 2433.25. Its trending broke lower into and out of Europe’s opens, attacking Tuesday’s late test of 2428.00. Diverging positively on its retest enabled a bounce to 2431.50, which has since extended another point.

If, then…
Gapping up sufficiently this morning would overcome buyers not gaining traction yesterday. But the 2434.25-2435.75 trigger hasn’t even been attacked. Currently trading around unchanged, almost any post-open weakness would be credible for extending down. Even without triggering bias-down, the pattern is vulnerable to fresh lows under 2426.50 to 2424.25 and probably also to 2421.50.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2429.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2426.50 bias-down signal at 10:15.

Phonetic dictation…
good morning and welcome it is Wednesday and San for Wednesday’s morning market tour and not a whole lot going on there was certainly potential overnight to extend down yesterday’s late plunge Final hours plunge actually can see it over here on the left had tested 2428 or Pierce to buy a tick it’s balanced averaged positively and that produced a little bigger balance right to resistance but rather than resume the decline which was vulnerable to overnight infirmed I was watching this world time was able to track patterns uptrending support broke other inflection points trigger but they haven’t been very productive but they weren’t very productive well this one was productive but essentially the inflection points we’re not very productive in fact they were the they were the opposite of productive as in productive in the opposite direction they seem more to have delayed in other words it would be more bullish and if we were looking at this pattern this market right here he have in the interim rather than attacking yesterday’s Lowe’s overnight it had probed yesterday’s loves overnight this would then be much better position to Rally I would suspect this would be much higher at this moment as well and being my tire would be much more helpful to the rally because this is the area 3425 3550 this is the area that needs to be recovered through the open in order to offset the fact that yesterday’s buyers gained no traction it’s not too far away from that there’s plenty of time news on its way but plenty of time to get back out if started pretty much now it started later trying to fresh overnight I would be weakened and sponsorship starting to roll over in case 3525 I would be looking for the delay alright last thing is if bias down is avoided this morning is bias down signal which is 2650 if that’s avoided I don’t think that would prevent necessarily trending down anyway probing temporarily fresh loves during the no bias environment just one more opportunity to trap we can and shorts alright and it’s not a position of weakness is not being created from a position of weakness couple consecutive higher closes would have been would have qualified as a position of strength but if there’s a knee-jerk reaction down at expected to recover and meanwhile there’s certain potential to Simply react Tire natural gas for tomorrow and it’s extending a little bit higher up to this resistance of what was pretty relevant support on the way down basically 309 leaving a gap outstanding I had a bit CIA that is a position of weakness when that’s not a solid base .

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Friday’s new high close did not extend any higher Sunday night, which had dipped to test Monday morning’s 2433.50 bias-down signal. The open’s gap down tested it, too, and held it, putting into play an offsetting test of the morning’s 2440.00 bias-up signal. It would be attacked to within 1 point, which is within 1 tick of officially neutralizing its attraction. The balance of the session ranged sideways, narrowing around unchanged at 2437.50. A last-minute dip attacked the morning’s lows.

Overnight action’s new info…
Monday’s last-minute dip extended through the morning’s lows, gradually but relentlessly. And single-mindedly. It just tested this morning’s 2426.50 bias-down signal. This level was first seen as Thursday afternoon’s bias-up target, met during that window’s high. It was last seen during the next morning’s pre-open and post-open dips that absorbed the Employment Situation report’s reaction, resolving up to new highs.

If, then…
The laurel-resting continues, as the requirement for at least one more new high close allows sellers to expend their energy without reversing the trend down. Somehow recovering to avoid triggering this morning’s bias-down would target new highs today. One-way single-minded overnight declines often do end abruptly at the open. Meanwhile, the pullback’s likely objective is 2421.50, and recovering its test to close back above 2428.00 would indicate the pullback had ended. Otherwise, it could extend back down to the prior upside target of 2415.00. Regardless of how deep and for how long the pullback were to extend and persist, the context remains just that, a pullback likely to resolve up.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open under 2428.75 would be likely to trigger the 2432.00 bias-down signal at 10:30. Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2424.25 would be likely also not to recover the 2426.50 bias-down target by 10:30, renewing the bias-down signal.

Phonetic dictation…
good morning good morning and welcome it is Tuesday it’s time for Tuesday’s market tour it looks like little game Chicken here yesterday afternoon yesterday actually warnings in the morning Mornings in the morning Thrilla in Manila warnings in the morning that despite there being an upside of jective despite not extending down the opens gap which was a retest of the overnight low by the way the overnight low and the opens gap down both holding a test of the bias down signal 3350 precisely in fact that Post open and that put into play it on Steam test of the bicep signal at 2440 which was attacked only to it than a tech and only by the sake of a couple of errant text so it’s tough to give that credibility for having been neutralized other than the subsequent price action of course but even then that was just so close to the prior clothes that’s not going to be the bias up signal anyway it’s disqualified from serving in that capacity so that is 39 so we do consider their to be unfinished business above the 2440 via sub signal from yesterday morning obviously not a controlling factor in the near-term trending especially the longer that that was delayed in testing it and it was the warning that I continually issued yesterday that the market may have decided to enter into a multi-session pull back or maybe unable to fulfill the up side or the unfinished business above that was in existence before yesterday’s open unfinished business in existence being a new trend Thursday afternoon Thursday afternoon Rue 1015 lot of time available for that that’s it for the pool back that’s not likely in this setup but a lot of selling pressure is being expended overnight without gaining any sponsorship for the effort so it is possible not likely likely or is that we do test Post open the lower prioritize remember the major downside potential is 224 likely is 24 2125 if there were or 2150 there were a downside move pullback multi-session delay to producing a fresh clothes the 24 2150 was the likely objective so just wouldn’t be surprised to see that included in whatever this morning has in store if it doesn’t hold if we’re going to the overnight so far it has and needs to today clothes back under 7445 there is unfinished business below that really wants to be retested similar pattern in the loony took a long time to come gold not rejecting that all this break higher the failed ascending triangle was overcome and now not only is 1287 Bing exceeded its been exceeded up to 1296 another which is right away taking out another 12 9640 precisely getting involved all the way up to another higher objective look at this on the bigger picture later thank you look at your picture and you can see what is being tested here can’t see the chart anymore the bars but it’s not likely that just touching the top or not the same time Top what’s the parallel here’s another indication of why won’t be tolerated on this pattern if it’s trying to buy them that’s crude oil API reports after today’s close and then Natural Gas there’s no signs of a bottom it’s not him here but no signal gas.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Excessive optimism ahead of Friday’s Employment Situation report had extended overnight to test 2437.00. But it was a “new Globex trend extreme.” Reacting poorly to the news held multiple tests of the overnight low, which remained in the orbit of the overnight high. Rallying into the afternoon probed the overnight high ultimately attacked 2440.00 into the weekend. A new trend extreme close and confirmed breakout each make at least one more new high close a requirement.

Overnight action’s new info…
Friday’s 2437.50 close opened lower Sunday night, and soon resolved down. The dip soon fell to 2433.00, testing this morning’s bias-down signal by 2 ticks, before beginning to firm. The reversal ended abruptly when it touched Friday’s 2437.50 close, reversing down to 2434.50 which was just touched minutes ago.

If, then…
This weekend’s Saturday Review discussed the two major influences, which are contradicting each other. We discussed reasons why today’s session is vulnerable to launching  a corrective downleg, such as measurements and pattern elements. The contradictory influence also makes today vulnerable to reversing down — that is, the rally requires at least one more eventual higher close. That entrenchment often — not usually, but often — inserts a counter-trend move. Probing higher intraday would not ensure lasting through the close, nor would dipping this morning prevent recovering intraday. But these two influences are each strong enough to give early trending a benefit of the doubt for extending.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2435.75 would be unlikely to trigger the 2433.50 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2430.25 would be likely to trigger bias-down.

Phonetic dictation…
good morning welcome it is Monday its regularly length week it is really the first Monday of the month having ended May last week on Wednesday the month ended on a strong note we covered a lot of this all this really in the Saturday review so I won’t be covering it again other than its conclusions and remember there are a couple reasons couple there are reasons on other side of the equation why we can look for at some Future Point be relatively confident in their being at least one more higher clothes in this rally could be today doesn’t mean if we rally this morning that today will be the day and it doesn’t mean it today does close hire that there won’t be higher closes but the confirm break Avenue Trenton close on a Friday those do create the requirement for a new trend advantage of that and use it as an opportunity to I also had some unfinished business below at 12810 when 2815 Gap outstanding doesn’t seem interested in testing it though and it was a gap it was created in the process of fulfilling are filling another Gap so really difficult time that and then the Looney really been under pressure here as this pull back objective not a big of jective has not been met me not a major pulled back here just a little prioritize so suspicious of any rally that develops in the interim and by the way around we made to be developing in the interim and this is the Looney where we have somewhat of an inverted Head and Shoulders you see the upward slope that really makes it a pivotal correction still has a similar measurement at least in my work to get us out to 7450 maybe even new highs 7515 which would be interesting because that would leave outstanding this correction and still be the product of a shallow to shallow pull back so unless that’s actually triggered by closing today about 7425 still looking for the pullback two to be in control to dominate influence at cetera and the euro 1265 6055 actually would put put not in the back burner so much as just put away the potential for this pattern it was done it was done by find that it is imperative crude oil interesting it has on a couple of cell signals here lower and lower lows they’re not closing lower like Friday’s close was that or overlapping the but it does require that he Tuesday and Wednesday Wednesday and.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Gapping up Thursday to the 2415.00-2417.00 prior highs, but not through them, wasn’t enough to resume Wednesday’s late rally. But the morning only consolidated instead of reversing down. And the bias environment exit launched a rally that extended through the close. The afternoon bias environment consolidated between the next higher objective of 2424.25 and its 2426.50 bias-up target. The position-squaring window resumed the rally to 2430.50.

Overnight action’s new info…
Initially fluctuating +/- 1 point soon resolved up to probe new highs at this morning’s 2435.75 bias-up target. A narrow 2-point range persisted into and out of Europe’s opens. A brief dip to 2433.00 was easily digested, and now fresh highs are testing 2437.25. This is a “new Globex trend extreme” that requires intraday retest, often the same day.

If, then…
The past week’s narrow range was an unstable platform to launch another upleg. Nevertheless, its next higher objective above 2415.00 was 2424.25. Closing above 2424.25 has put into play the next higher objective, subject to being confirmed by a second consecutive higher close today. Closing higher today would also trigger a Friday Factor, further entrenching the uptrend. Meanwhile, this pattern remains vulnerable to abrupt reversals, which is where last week’s unstable platform gains extra relevance. Of course the rally is steep and alluring — it’s in its Satchel Paige phase, and can’t look back for fear of what might be gaining on it. Even without confirming yesterday’s breakout, there’s room down to 2421.50 before reversing the trend down, but one likely follows the other. Especially if the overnight high’s “new Globex trend extreme” is neutralized first, which may be delayed if this breakout attempt proves overly optimistic ahead of this morning’s Employment Situation report.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2431.50 would be likely to trigger this morning’s 2430.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2437.50 would be likely also to exceed the 2435.75 bias-up target through 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal, next targeting 2443.75. Exiting the open under 2428.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Phonetic dictation…
Alright good morning and welcome it’s Friday it’s time for Friday’s Morning Market or it is the last day of the week Friday it is a holiday shortened week or was almost that’s it for that until Friday by the only one okay so interesting influences but all I can say right now and and I mean that all I can say right now is that tomorrow at the Saturday review we’re going to have a lot of interesting things to review as far as price action this week how it relates to the methodology and we’re not finished this morning is going to be very interesting maybe the entire session reason I can’t say more is because there’s so much to cover let’s just not let’s talk about what the possibilities are we have a huge rally that started yesterday as soon as the bias apartment started laughing when the opens Gap up and wasn’t even much of a gap up and really shouldn’t even keep referring to it like that but didn’t Gap up above the entirety of 24 1517 had proved it pre open where I had pre open and then dipped back down or least stretched the entirety of the Gap up Gap up requirement until the morning didn’t react down that didn’t stretch the band as it had Wednesday which stop short of the 2399 lower prize that would have done two things would have completed a correction the very narrow range prior to that so it’s correction didn’t need to be substantial it also would have been made this week long basing what turns out to be in there all range instead because it never really corrected or fully corrected didn’t even fill out standing gaps and Cetera makes this a very unstable base to try a launching the resumption of the bull market and this continues to be a market phase that is extremely vulnerable too abrupt reversals Rally’s of its trend so I put those two things together things this morning Wednesday morning Wednesday look for noise above it was to 2428 which was tested through the clothes and probed extended and now exceeded there’s 24 3575 initially test overnight that happened to be this morning’s bias up Target pull back or covers to a fresh High 3575 still alive attractive attracting price that’s a lot of optimism ahead of report of such weight that is normally approached more cautiously coming off of a narrow otherwise unstable base and Market that is at a phase that remains vulnerable highly vulnerable to reversals of its trend lot riding on today lot riding on not just the open before the open the reaction the employment report and the clothes because otherwise this was yesterday this was a break out from a multi-session range Pro blower on Wednesday but closed back in the rain today next day to fill that Gap back to Tuesday’s close yapping down yesterday to support silver long with gold was right at support in really had a lot of potential to bounce from there and they both did silver didn’t have to fill this Gap we talk about this didn’t have to fill the Gap back to Wednesday’s close just testing higher Prairie loses fine the Gap at Tuesday’s close is not above all prioritize within the range just coming back to within the range neutralizes its attraction and now overnight slipping a little back under 1708 back under 1708 at this stage I should be the qualification to resume the rally hours into the client’s right it’s basically.