Market Wrap

Potential for a pullback limited to 2387.25-2388.25 had failed to hold this morning, when the 2389.25 bias-down signal put into play 2384.25. Potential to isolate the excess dip also failed, when the bias environment was exited under 2387.25-2388.25.

Closing above 2387.25-2388.25 would have sufficed. That was difficult for a drop into Thursday’s close that had extended down to 2378.00 from Wednesday’s 2395.00 close. Gapping up above its 2391.25 prior high Friday — not just to it, but through it — might also suffice.

Otherwise, the next lower objective in-play is 2372.25-2373.75, and then potentially “lower prior highs” at 2368.50 or 2364.00.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

Wednesday’s 39-point rally up to 2401.00 had extended higher through each intraday timing window. The last one broke lower to 2365.00, the afternoon bias environment’s low.  The break extended lower post-close down to 2392.75, the noon hour’s low. Lower lows overnight could test 2387.25 before even threatening to reverse the trend down.

Thursday is meanwhile likely to probe above Wednesday’s high, whether to 2405.50 or 2418.00. Even if Wednesday’s late drop were extended down to 2387.25, a probe above Wednesday’s high remains likely.

Wednesday’s late break originated too late and was too shallow to reverse the trend down. So, extending down any deeper overnight would still be likely to recover before becoming a substantial decline.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

Holding this morning’s test of its 2364.00 bias-down signal had put into play an offsetting test of its 2372.25 bias-up signal. Breaking sharply lower to 2357.50 came too late to prevent 2372.25 from becoming “unfinished business above.”

The break to 2357.50 held its support, which had been the bias-down target. And the actual selling was short-lived as the context suggested. But 2364.00 held its recovery instead of returning into positive territory. It’s not necessarily bearish, and the vacuum could represent ineffectual pessimism that resolves up sharply Wednesday.

Resolving back down would next target the 2354.00 area. It could be tested in a deeper detour before reversing back up to the highs — 2372.25 up to 2373.75. But the rally is tentative. And not exploiting the proximity at Monday’s close to confirming its breakout on Tuesday does suggest the rally’s momentum is in jeopardy.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here. SPECIAL NOTE: The recording’s host is affected by the Amazon server outage, so it may be unavailable for viewing.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

If not for a couple of headlines that triggered negative knee-jerk reactions, Monday morning’s 2366.00 bias-up signal might have triggered a rally. The no-bias signal was invalidated, and the afternoon trended up to within 3 ticks of the morning’s 2371.50 bias-up target.

Sunday night’s 2370.00 high had formed a “new Globex trend extreme” requiring a retest that was fulfilled the same day. Potential remains alive to the nearby 2372.00-2374.00 objective discussed during this weekend’s Saturday Review. Meanwhile, Monday’s new high close is a breakout. So, a second consecutive higher close Tuesday would imply closing above 2374.00, requiring a third higher close if not also extending the rally to 2418.00.

Gapping down Tuesday could still spend the day rallying back to unchanged without confirming the breakout, perhaps probing 2372.00-2374.00 intraday to neutralize its attraction. While that wouldn’t preclude resuming the rally Wednesday or eventually extending it to 2418.00, it would not be a position of strength.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

Trending during Friday afternoon’s no-bias environment was unlikely, being both Friday afternoon and a no-bias environment. Even the proxy window was stagnant — until the moment it lapsed at 3:20. Surging triggered a sell signal above 2359.25 that was considered only because Friday Factors can be very productive when they overcome the likelier whipsaw.

And the likelier whipsaw was overcome. Surging into the cash session close attacked 2364.75. A post-close blip-up attacked 2366.00 momentarily. Any higher would have targeted at least 2371.50. But that was unlikely, since the surge’s origin reflects weak-handed sponsorship. The new trend high close was within the range, disqualifying it from requiring any higher close.

But a higher high is nevertheless encouraged. Why? Because yet another relatively deep, steep intraday drop has been retraced entirely. That’s 4 or 5 for the week. At least an obligatory probe of fresh highs is likely. Correcting Friday’s late surge is likelier first. Reversing it back under Friday afternoon’s 2355.75 bias environment low is possible, threatening a “session-long decline” targeting “lower prior highs” under 2347.50.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.