Market Wrap

The morning’s 2292.00 bias-up signal had required being tested, since the morning’s 2283.50 bias-down signal held its test through 10:15. Neutralizing it during the 3:10-3:20 proxy window would have evolved into a new rally leg.

Missing that window made the balance of the session much likelier only to range flat-to-higher, and unlikely to trend down. In fact, the 3:37-3:52 position-squaring window touched 2292.00, and only reacted down to 2290.00.

Like the past two sessions, new highs remain likely, if only up to 2311.00 instead of to 2327.00. And new highs remain vulnerable to reversing down abruptly and sharply, especially if produced that same way. Avoiding new highs would likely be only temporary, and likely to begin only by gapping down.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

The immediate rally that was required by Monday’s close was perhaps a little too immediate. Overnight action had already tested Friday’s 2294.00 prior high. And post-open action was still testing its resistance — not rejecting it, but not overpowering it, either. Maintaining the overnight rally, and Tuesday’s gap up, triggered bias-up. But it was never any more productive than its pre-10:15 high, and was rejected back under the pre-10:15 low.

The consequence was to test 2286.50. It was met during the noon hour, and it supported the afternoon range. Like the morning’s 2294.00 resistance, the 2286.50 support avoided breaking, and also avoided reversing. Breaking lower overnight would target a test of 2280.75.

Recovering an overnight dip by Wednesday’s open to isolate it, or avoiding an overnight dip altogether, could launch the rally leg that had been threatened at Tuesday’s open. Not already somehow rallying at Wednesday’s open would keep the door open to a deeper pullback.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

This morning’s 2286.25 bias-down signal proved more influential Monday than was even suggested until 90 minutes before the open. That was the soonest it was even touched overnight, let alone probed on the way down to 2284.00.

Recovering 2286.25 did put into play an offsetting test of 2295.25. But there was hardly any effort to get there. The balance of the session was about retesting 2284.00, and trying again to recover 2286.25.

A test of 2295.25 remains outstanding as “unfinished business above.”

Monday’s inside day was contained within Friday’s range. Its low held a test of last Wednesday’s opening gap up, which Friday’s open had also tested. It is essentially a “lower prior high,” singularly represented as 2283.50, and there is no bullish reason to retest it.

So, any credible rally Tuesday should be aggressive, and probably not be delayed much if at all. Falling any further would be likely to fall back to 2275.00, where only the briefest test would be credible for not crumbling on the way to fresh lows.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

So long, 2275.00. But, for how long?

Gapping up above prior highs Friday broke free from the four-day choppy ranging that had continually closed at 2275.00. The test of 2275.00 had become necessary last Thursday-Friday when intraday dips weren’t refueling buyers sufficiently to resume the rally. Well, the rally that was launched from four days of testing 2275.00 has only returned to last Thursday-Friday’s “higher prior lows.” So, there’s still no evidence that stretching the rubber band tighter will be any more fruitful in resuming the rally.

Nevertheless, being back in the orbit of last week’s 2299.50 “new Globex trend extreme” makes its retest likely sooner rather than later, unless Monday were to gap back down. Which would target 2275.00, and lower. After all, Friday’s retest of last week’s Island has neutralized its attraction above, and its protection against launching a more substantial drop.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Join us at 9:30 ET for this weekend’s Saturday Review. I’ll send its link overnight.

Thursday afternoon’s paralysis ahead of Friday morning’s Employment Situation report was masked by the wide range containing it. My last comments before noon identified a sell signal under 2275.75 targeting  2271.00. It was met at noon, and the balance of the afternoon essentially developed between them.

Actually, the afternoon high tested 2277.00. The last bounce retested it and finally closed above 2275.00. By 1 point. Closing there, or not, that’s still a big attraction for the fourth consecutive session.

Now there’s another attraction. Overbought RSIs at the morning’s 2279.75 high require a retest. That can be neutralized by retesting it overnight. And it’s not necessarily resistance — gapping up (and maintaining it) continues to be the bullish setup. Again.

One other bullish setup would be to recover from probing fresh low, i.e. isolating them to the overnight. There’s only a small chance that this pattern absorbs another fresh low, but it would point higher into the weekend. Otherwise, a downleg targeting 2248.50‘s retest should make itself obvious before the open.

There was no Market Wrap recording Thursday.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.