Market Wrap

A nearly last-minute high touched 2295.25. Its reaction down was still above the bias environment’s 2294.25 high when the cash session closed. The next higher objective is 2227.00, which is likely to be met aggressively, regardless of confirming Wednesday’s breakout on Thursday. Reacting down sharply Thursday would still leave unfinished business above back at Wednesday’s opening gap up.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

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2278.25 calculable objective tested, check. Held, without closing higher and putting into play any higher objective? Also, check. New high close, check.

No unfinished business remains outstanding. No higher attraction can be put into play until Wednesday’s close. It couldn’t be confirmed until Thursday’s close. Intraday action might exploit this as an opportunity to probe higher. Tuesday afternoon’s rally did gain traction, so probing higher Wednesday morning is likely, anyway.

Extending higher through Wednesday’s close would have potential up to 2320.00. Meanwhile, fresh highs are vulnerable to reversing down, hard.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

The noon hour’s test of last weeks’ 2253.00 low had recovered to attack 2262.00 during the bias environment. Its reaction down to 2256.00 was retraced entirely, and even probed by 1 point to attack 2263.00. But the afternoon’s bounce wasn’t extended.

And it could have been.

An objective below had been fulfilled and held. The afternoon’s noN-bias surge didn’t require being retraced, but was retraced anyway. The 2256.75 bias-up signal held as support to avoid reversing momentum down. There was plenty of time for a path up to gain traction. And then less time. And finally no time.

Buyers never regained traction.

Rallying Tuesday morning should begin by gapping up, back above Monday morning’s 2266.00 resistance. Its reward would be another test of prior highs. Trending down could also develop overnight, but need not for the pullback to resume on the way to testing 2248.50 below.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

Trending up through expiration’s open did not define the balance of the session. Already meeting and holding the 2272.00 bias-up target was inhibiting to some degree. But that’s not what triggered dropping back down to 2260.00, essentially filling the gap back to Thursday’s close.

Ultimately, positive territory was maintained throughout. The open’s anchor is still an attraction above, as is the requirement for a new trend high close, and likely test of 2278.25. It’s interesting that the rally couldn’t exploit the opportunity for another new trend high close on a Friday, which would have further entrenched itself.

Unfinished business below remains outstanding from oversold RSIs at Thursday’s 2253.00 low, and at the prior week’s 2248.50 actual low. There continues to be no particular timing requirement for either.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Saturday Review at 9:30 ET — its link will be emailed overnight.

Thursday afternoon’s break under its 2260.75 bias-down signal was no-bias trending that required being retraced. Which it was, literally at the session’s final minute. The 1:20 print at  2262.00 could be retested, too. It’s not required, but meanwhile it’s resistance.

Also meanwhile, oversold RSIs at the afternoon drop’s 2253.00 low require a retest. That could be done overnight, and retraced before Friday’s open to reverse momentum up. At least, the setup would be credible for reversing momentum up. Its dip is likelier to extend down to retest last week’s 2248.50 low.

Rallying overnight to gap up above 2265.00 would also be credible for extending higher intraday. Being expiration, its shock could trend up to new highs into the weekend. Almost any overnight rally would threaten extending higher post-open, but the burden of proof would be on buyers.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.