Market Wrap

Tuesday afternoon’s drop from 2274.00 tested Monday’s lows down to 2263.25. That was essentially the upper-end of Tuesday morning’s opening range. That opening range had prevented isolating the overnight probe under Monday’s lows. And that was bearish. Clearly, not bearish in extending further down, but bearish in forcing a rally to retrace.

Only retracing? And, only retracing to the opening range’s upper-end? That’s hardly a consequence. Probing under 2263.25 is still likely. Retesting the open’s 2259.50 low is likely, too. Probing under 2257.50 would be likely to resume Tuesday’s opening decline (which was trying to resume Monday’s gap down) and target at least 2247.50, if not also 2235.25. Bouncing first could peak at 2272.00, or else probe new highs — if not also produce a new high close that neutralizes all upside attractions.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

Two pessimistic observations became three late Monday afternoon. First, the morning’s bounce had stopped pessimistically short of filling the gap back to Friday’s close. Next, two timing windows ranged flat-to-lower without actually breaking. Then, they did break lower, but several minutes before appropriate.

Pessimism, potentially bullish from a contrarian perspective. Unless exploited through a relevant timing window. Which Monday’s close tried to do, but failed — attacking the morning’s low to within 1 tick, but not probing lower.

A contrarian bullish template could still exploit the pessimism in one of two or three ways. Either by isolating a fresh low to the overnight that opens Tuesday back above Monday’s lows, or by gapping up above Monday’s highs. Quickly rejecting a post-open probe of fresh lows is also possible, but not likely.

A rally’s objectives would be Monday morning’s 2275.50 “unfinished business above,” and a new trend high close.

Otherwise, any other template essentially points down into Wednesday morning. Some point lower for longer. But any downdraft here is still considered to be only temporary.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

All eyes have been Dow 20k, which was attacked Friday to within 1 point. Perhaps it will be probed decisively when actually touched, to compensate for the delay. For our own purposes, the very long awaited retest of the 2273.00 prior high was finally fulfilled Friday. Its 2275.50 which was probed up to 2277.00.

That was during the noon hour. The entire afternoon fluctuated choppily around 2275.50, back down to 2273.00. Drifting another couple of points lower into the close avoided closing above 2275.50 which would have put into play the next higher objective (there’s room for noise up to 2278.25). The 2273.00 prior high held, too. But the new trend high close on Friday requires at least an eventual higher close before a durable decline would be credible.

This weekend’s Saturday Review will discuss those factors, and others regarding topping and other resolutions. Then we’ll do instant chart analyses of any stocks requested. A reminder and link will be sent overnight.

Meanwhile, details and other markets coverage are discussed in the market Wrap recording here.

Extending higher into Thursday’s close retested Wednesday’s 2264.50 close. The open had done that already, and then reversed down for the morning. Should the afternoon’s retracement be any more bullish?

Possibly, since recovering the morning’s selling pressures suggests its sponsorship wasn’t strong-handed. Closing above the morning’s high would have been helpful, so a hold-long could have been more compelling, especially ahead of Friday’s Employment Situation report.

Since Thursday afternoon’s buyers didn’t gain traction, rallying Friday all but requires gapping up. By the same token, sellers should once again be obvious very early if they’re actually retaking control. That’s essentially Thursday’s opening setup — and sellers not retaking control didn’t prevent a temporary dip, anyway.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

Probing above 2266.00 did prove itself to be an inflection point. But probing it after the proxy window did prove to be too late to be durable. Its reaction from 2267.25 was reversed down to only 2264.00, and didn’t extend down. So, no compelling hold long, but nothing that prevents briefly probing fresh highs as has been expectations for how a top would form.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.