Market Wrap

A funny thing happened Thursday on the way to gapping up above Wednesday’s 2762.00 high. An earlier overnight probe above it had reacted down, and was recovered up to 2760.00, when headlines triggered a plunge to 2736.50.

Wednesday’s close had overlapped its open, which often appears at trend extremes. Extending down post-open to 2730.25 created an anchor that suggests momentum has reversed down. None of which prevented rallying up to 2755.25 through the noon hour. But the anchor’s position of weakness should doom the bounce to failure.

The afternoon bias environment didn’t extend the rally at all. A late break lower fell to 2744.50 at the cash session close and 2742.50 into the futures close. The anchor at Thursday’s low has yet to be retested, and should be probed by a new downleg to compensate for the delay.

Otherwise, having trended down into Thursday’s close, gapping up above its 2754.50 bias environment high could form a session-long rally. The final hour’s blip-up to a higher high would have to be dismissed — which I’m willing to do, since it was triggered by a headline. Extending higher Friday morning would also raise suspicions about the WedEX signal’s reversal to bearish.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

Tuesday night’s rally up to 2757.00 had formed a “new Globex trend extreme,” which required intraday retest. Reacting down 10 points to test Tuesday’s highs still recovered the overnight high post-open, and then through it to 2762.00. The bear market rally’s last calculable target at 2751.00 was neutralized, along with its room for noise up to 2757.00.

But was the target rejected. Rallying into the last half-hour attacked 2760.00, but reacted back down to 2751.00 and closed under 2757.00. That late dip prevented signaling the rally’s next higher objective is in-play. Gapping up Thursday above Wednesday’s 2762.00 highs would help to reinstate the upside.

A lot of buying pressure was expended to hover above Tuesday’s highs, and then to probe back above 2757.00. Wasted buying pressure, for not maintaining the late rally. Also wasted for the closing action still overlapping the 2753.00 opening print — which reflects inertia, and often can occur at a trend extreme.

WedEX triggered actively bullish. Maintaining a gap down Thursday under Wednesday’s 2748.00 low could convert the signal by proxy to passively bearish. None of which would influence price action until Friday afternoon, regardless of whether price had rallied or collapsed in the interim.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

Sunday night’s rally up to 2721.50 wasn’t able to escape the orbit of 2708.00-2709.00. Its room for noise at 2705.50-2712.00 was re-entered soon after Monday’s open, and contained the balance of the session. But that only delayed Sunday night’s intent, and Monday night’s rally compensated for the delay.

Bias-up parameters had been far exceeded overnight, but Tuesday’s open was greeted at the 2727.75 renewed bias-up target. While also testing “higher prior lows” from the Tue-Wed consolidation at last week’s highs. After having trended relentlessly overnight. All of which was entirely vulnerable to losing the rally’s sponsorship. But reinforcements arrived immediately to extend the rally.

The ultimate objective at 2751.00 was attacked to within 3 points during Tuesday afternoon’s bias environment. Its shallow correction to 2741.50 reacted back up into the close. Wednesday’s peak liquidity ahead of the three-day holiday weekend offers a template that both fulfills rejects the higher objective before entering the noon hour. Maintaining higher highs into the afternoon would be much more difficult to reverse down.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

Sunday night’s 21-point range wasn’t extremely wide, but volatility made the most of its range. The open’s blip-up to 2712.75 had reversed down 12 points to 2700.50. And Europe’s opens had launched a 17-point surge up to 2721.50. Ranging choppily into Monday’s 2714.50 open was retraced back under 2712.00 resistance during the opening 15 minutes of volatility. The morning and afternoon held tests of 2705.50 as support.

That 2705.50-2712.00 range defined the room for noise around 2708.00-2709.00, which also defined the balance of the session. Breaking higher in time could have formed a compelling hold-long setup, which was attempted, in time, but not maintained through the close. The pattern remains vulnerable to resolve in either direction.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

REMINDER: I’m away from the screens Friday when the afternoon bias environment begins lapsing at 2:30 ET. There will be no Market Wrap or Saturday Review.

Thursday’s open was greeted by a relentless overnight slide from 2731.00 down to 2712.00. “Lower prior highs” at 2708.00-2709.00 had been pierced before the open, but needed an intraday test for a recovery to be reliable. The open held its test down to 2705.25 and reacted up to 2718.50, but a headline reaction triggered a collapse to fresh lows.

Not only to fresh lows, but to the next lower objective at 2688.00-2690.00. It was tested down to 2685.50 during the noon hour, which held. Its reaction only backed-and-filled up to 2700.00. The last half-hour broke higher to touch the 2705.25 pre-open low as resistance.

Closing back above 2708.00-2709.00 would have signaled that sellers were absorbed, and that momentum had reversed up. By proxy, gapping up Friday above Thursday’s open could be just as bullish and durable. The decline could simply resume, since it hasn’t yet been rejected. And having bounced into the close, gapping down to and/or through Thursday afternoon’s 2689.00 low could form a session-long decline.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.