Market Wrap
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
Tuesday afternoon’s narrow ranging between 2180.50-2181.50 finally broke out. But not until the position-squaring window had begun lapsing at 3:52. And it didn’t extend above the noon hour’s 2183.50 high until having come within 3 minutes of the cash session close. Not to mention that the narrow ranging didn’t gain any traction.
None of which precludes extending higher. Or extending higher without first gapping up. But extending higher from this base would be very vulnerable to the same rejection as prior probes of the area above. More so, extending higher without gapping up.
Gapping down deeply enough would be bearish. Having trended up into Tuesday’s close, gapping down Wednesday under Tuesday afternoon’s 2180.50 low could form a session-long decline. While that would marginalize sellers for the day, it could be contained by the gap back down to Thursday’s 2166.00 close.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
It’s too late for strong-handed sellers to produce the substantial reversal they could have created if more influential this morning. But under 2170.75 would still target 2166.00, and just a little lower than that could still pretend to collapse. Back above 2177.00 would all but marginalize sellers for the day. The balance of the session need not rally, but could still firm into the close.
Globex will open normally Sunday night despite the holiday. The chaRTroom will re-open normally then, too, and I’ll be available to update charts as needed… I’m gone for the balance of the session, but the chaRTroom remains open.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Post-market Wrap (Summary)
It’s not surprising to boot up and log in this evening to see the market did nothing significant after I left early. Firstly, the market is known for accommodating everyone’s schedule. Secondly, I willed it not to produce any surprises. And thirdly, the morning recovery’s momentum was running into anxiousness ahead of Friday’s Employment Situation report.
Like the prior two sessions’ recoveries, Thursday’s also stopped short of closing above a relevant resistance. Afternoon buyers gained no traction for their efforts. Extending higher Friday morning would require gapping up. Payrolls offers a catalyst, but that’s no assurance.
Meanwhile, I’ve noticed the market hasn’t rallied on traditionally bullish news of weaker economic reports. Those data would suggest the Fed won’t raise rates, which the market seems to want — if only to get it over with. Weaker payrolls could cause quite the decline into the weekend — especially now that last Friday’s low was chipped away Thursday. Otherwise, genuinely strong employment growth that seems to force the Fed’s hand could be very bullish.
There was no post-market Wrap recording here due to travel.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
Wednesday’s noon hour test of 2160.00 support produced an obligatory bounce. Like late-Friday’s bounce from testing 2160.00, strong-handed sellers never regained control. Both bounces targeted the same 2170.75-2171.50 area, which both fulfilled.
But Wednesday’s bounce accomplished nothing toward reversing the trend up. It didn’t gain traction or reverse the trend up, and holding a test of resistance only neutralized the attraction above. Meanwhile, the afternoon’s 2156.50 outstanding bias-down target became “unfinished business below.”
Wednesday’s bounce did potentially marginalize sellers through the holiday. Not already breaking lower this far before a three-day weekend suggests that a break lower is at least delayed. To be sure, recovering from a probe under Friday’s low would have been optimal. And gapping down Thursday could serve by proxy to resume the decline. Otherwise, gravitating back up into the weekend is possible before resuming the decline.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
Tuesday’s slide into the afternoon’s bias environment exit could have collapsed from there. Touching the 2171.50 pullback limit had already produced a bounce during the morning. And the cusp between timing windows allowed new sponsorship to gain traction.
But new sponsorship did not arrive, and the market bounced into the close. The setup was similar to Friday afternoon’s low. Which makes sense, since the market is still trading off of that setup. The bounce into Monday’s high was its extension. The question now is whether the reaction down into Tuesday’s lows is about to accelerate into a new downleg, or else resume extending late Friday’s bounce.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.