Market Wrap

Entering the afternoon’s bias environment at 2176.50 and trending up to fresh session highs at 2183.00 is entirely consistent with a bullish WedEX. While there’s no assurance Monday’s open won’t gap down, post-open action is now substantially more likely to trend up, too, and more aggressively than Friday afternoon.

Apart from that, no unfinished business was left outstanding. The open’s gap wasn’t under prior lows, requiring a retest. And the gap back up to Thursday’s close wasn’t filled entirely, but the lower-end of its structure was tested. The prior week’s range was broken only temporarily on Monday. Calm before the storm?

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

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Thursday afternoon’s rally gained no traction for its effort, such as it was.bullish. The morning’s 2184.25 peak was retested off of the noon hour’s 2178.00 low. But despite that momentum, the afternoon bias environment trying to gain traction, and being within proximity of prior highs, no traction was signaled.

So, sellers weren’t marginalized but they weren’t productive. Extending higher without delay must gap up Friday. Not gapping up would be unlikely to extend higher before late-afternoon — which would be too late to fulfill the bullish WedEX signal. Gapping up is likely, but not gapping up could range narrowly around around Thursday’s high before rallying into the weekend.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

Higher and higher highs into and out of Wednesday’s FOMC Minutes kept requiring interim reactions down to recover. Which they did. RSIs didn’t get overbought on the last high’s 2179.75 retest, and RSIs deteriorated the retest of its 2181.00 high. So, an immediate pullback wouldn’t be surprising, and wouldn’t be required to recover.

Oversold RSIs at Wednesday’s 2165.50 low preceded the noon hour and so it requires an eventual retest. That doesn’t prevent first extending Wednesday afternoon’s recovery to back up into Monday’s range, attacking or probing its high.

Aiding an extended recovery would be a bullish WedEX signal that signaled at Wednesday’s close. Passive, for having held a test of a prior low, and not active since no relevant high was recovered. Invalidating the signal would require gapping down Thursday under Wednesday afternoon’s 2169.25 low, or lower (which would also form a “session-long decline” setup).

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

Tuesday afternoon’s two fresh afternoon lows had been maintained when coming to within 3 minutes of the cash session close. That makes a compelling hold-short through the close. But not optimal, since the final hour wasn’t entered under the bias environment low to gain traction.

Regardless, the morning’s 2175.25 bias-down target remains “unfinished business below”, likely to be tested down to 2172.00, possibly probed down to 2160.00 and lower.

Buyers gained no traction, so gapping up Wednesday above Tuesday’s 2182.50 high would enable trending back up. Which would be interesting, given that the close may form a WedEX signal.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

Sunday night’s rally and Monday morning’s surge peaked before the morning bias environment’s exit. That’s not unusual, and hardly noteworthy. Except that price action suddenly flat-lined. The noon hour held the narrow range that had entered it, as did the afternoon bias environment.

I was away from screens for much of Monday’s final hour. But we held a pre-close “Wrap” one hour before the close.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.