Market Wrap

Tuesday’s flat open at 2642.75 eventually probed up to 2650.00, then reversed down to 2638.25. The reversal came in time to avoid triggering bias-up, but then a surge came in time to invalidate the no-bias. The no-bias objective was fulfilled anyway, as yet another reversal probed attacked overnight lows to within 3 ticks at 2629.25.

And that was it for Tuesday’s trending. An otherwise invalidated signal, nevertheless fulfilled. No other indications of sponsorship developed, and the balance of the session ranged choppily to barely probe positive territory. Perhaps inhibited ahead of AAPL’s post-open earnings.

An actual probe above Tuesday morning’s highs wouldn’t be surprising, as described during the Market Tour. Oversold RSIs at the low do require an eventual retest. Wednesday afternoon’s FOMC events may inhibit the morning’s volatility, but should enhance it in the afternoon.

UPDATE: AAPL earnings a little better than estimates, certainly not disappointing, and generating an upside reaction (for now).

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

Friday and Monday are almost mirror images of each other. Each gapped either up or down, respectively. Each extended intraday in their gaps’ direction. Each returned to their opening prints, not gaining any traction for their intraday efforts. And each tested an attraction at its intraday extreme.

Monday’s 2638.50 open was overlapped at the close, after extending intraday down to 2622.25 and recovering temporarily up to 2642.75. Monday’s lows held the afternoon’s 2622.75 bias-down signal and the ongoing relevant 2625.00.

The island-like patterns formed Friday and Monday aren’t actually Islands, because they developed within prior recent price action. Neither is a reversal pattern, and neither requires being retested if it produces a reversal. So, Friday’s range doesn’t require being retested, yet…

Almost any overnight strength is likely to recover back into Friday’s range. That would mean back above 2656.00, and closing above 2666.00 would reinstate upside momentum. Similarly, almost any weakness — overnight or through Tuesday’s open — would be likely to resume the decline through 2625.00. And under 2625.00 lies an air pocket likely targeting 2605.00. Perhaps even deeper to compensate for the delay in breaking under 2625.00

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

The overnight rally was already testing 2656.00 before a late surge to 2662.00 greeted Friday’s open. That allowed a post-open dip to attack 2656.00 as support. It held, and the rally soon resumed. Extending up through 2666.00. filled the gap back to last Friday’s ~2671.00 close. Natural resistance.

The afternoon’s 2672.50 bias-up target was touched at the noon hour’s high. Its reaction attacked 2660.00 at the noon hour’s low. Bouncing only to retest 2666.00 was short of triggering bias-up, which tends to end upside momentum on Friday. Another dip to 2660.00 almost defined the balance of the afternoon until a late break lower.

The afternoon gained no traction for the morning’s rally effort — the bias environment exit and final hour’s entry were both within the noon hour’s range. Closing above 2666.00 would have put back into play the bear market rally’s next higher objective at 2701.00. Closing under 2656.00 would give sellers traction, but Monday’s open can also do that by proxy.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
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Thursday’s session shows how difficult it can be to trend from a standing stop. The 2632.00-2645.00 overnight range was choppy, but hadn’t broken higher before the open. So, the post-open trending attempts weren’t much more likely to suddenly attract sponsorship that wasn’t enthused only hours earlier.

Tests of 2632.00 support had been isolated until the noon hour. All of the chipping away at had begun requiring at least obligatory probe lower. The afternoon’s bias-down complied by triggering and testing its 2627.25 target down to 2626.00. A test of 2625.00 was likely but not fulfilled, so neither was the ongoing potential for 2605.00.

The afternoon’s bias-down environment hovered at its 2635.00 bias-down signal until the window began lapsing. Eking higher to attack 2643.00 at the close stopped far short of the morning’s outstanding 2650.00 bias-up target this is now “unfinished business.” It’s not any closer after the futures close reacted down to 2633.50 on INTC’s earnings miss and lower guidance.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

Gapping up 10 points Wednesday to 2646.00 wasn’t any more bullish than extending higher through the open to test 2651.00. There was that much room for noise while still being within the gravitational pull of 2605.00. The 2651.00 test did add 3 points while being overlapped during the first half-hour. But the balance of the morning resolved down into the noon hour, probing 4 points under Tuesday’s low to 2612.50.

Still short of the 2605.00 objective.

Wednesday afternoon’s bounce made it back up to 2639.50 which doesn’t reverse the trend up. But it wasn’t maintained, as the last half-hour ranged narrowly sideways. Back under 2632.00 overnight could start to resume the decline, but there is otherwise room up to 2656.00-2666.00 before suggesting the past two sessions have been only a temporary detour.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.