Market Wrap

Not gapping down Friday was likelier to bounce than to resume Thursday’s decline. Friday’s rally from 2158.00 to 2169.00 went further.

Closing easily above Thursday morning’s lows put back into play any objective created by Thursday’s open holding those lows. That’s 2171.25. Absorbing Thursday’s detour down to 2153.50 is likely to be rewarded. And Friday afternoon’s rally leg being inhibited by headlines might be compensated for its delay. So, testing 2171.25 would likely probe above it to 2175.50.

Reacting down again, instead, is unlikely — this pattern has been there, done that, from this area. So, extending down into Monday’s open could reverse back up to form a Pivot Reversal, or else extend down more dramatically intraday.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

We’ll game out possible opens and review the bigger picture at this weekend’s Saturday Review, beginning at 9:30 am ET in the chaRTroom here.

Wednesday’s breakout from a four-session range was not confirmed Thursday. As was expected for this pattern, the alternative to confirming would be a deep rejection of the breakout. Not just avoiding a positive close, but closing sharply lower.

Equally important is what that means for this pattern. Simply not confirming Wednesday’s breakout would have kept the door open to extending higher anyway. Trying to extend higher after Thursday’s dive would very likely be reversed to fresh lows.

No traction was gained Thursday afternoon, so only gapping open beyond either end of Thursday’s range could resume trending before late-afternoon. Oversold RSIs at Thursday’s 2153.50 low may facilitate a gap down. Meanwhile, lower lows overnight could already start recovering from 2152.00 and 2148.00.

Thursday’s unfinished business above at 2171.25 doesn’t prevent a deeper drop from developing. Already firming into Friday’s open, preferably after probing lower lows overnight — just not gapping down — would likely retest 2171.25 before the weekend. And then drop.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

Wednesday’s session was significant, fulfilling several items of “?unfinished business above” at 2163.00, 2163.75, and 2168.00.

They can still be probed up to 2171.25 and 2175.00. Meanwhile, a pullback has room down to 2163.00 before suggesting a bigger detour is underway.

Most important is whether Thursday  will confirm Wednesday’s breakout, which would essentially entrench the rally and inhibit a counter-trend decline.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

Tuesday’s horrible narrow choppy range did leave two influences. Both are functions of its ongoing intraday testing of support, neither recovering from it nor breaking lower.

Holding the morning’s 2154.00 bias-down signal created unfinished business above at its 2163.00 bias-up signal. That joins the prior morning’s yet unmet 2163.75 bias-up target, and last week’s 2168.00 new Globex trend extreme.

Meanwhile, the testing of 2154.00 may have chipped away at its support. This will be relevant if Wednesday doesn’t rally early. Breaking lower would target the 2148.00 area and potentially also 2146.00.

The past four sessions have formed a multi-session range. A valid break in either direction should begin by gapping beyond the range. Leaving the range post-open would be likelier reverse back into the range.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

The week got off to a fast start, gapping up from Friday’s post-close Turkey leg under 2152.00 and extending higher overnight to 2163.75.

The day got off to a slower start, detouring into negative territory at 2153.00 but only to test and hold support for a bounce up to 2162.00.

Then the day all but stopped, recovering from a relatively shallow noon hour dip back up to the morning’s 2162.00 high.

Buyers gained no traction for the effort, but left outstanding unfinished business above at 2163.75. Last week’s new Globex trend extreme at 2168,00 already requires an intraday retest. Only a significant gap down would break free from their attraction.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.