Market Wrap

Thursday was owned by the tick. The single tick.

The afternoon’s 2104.00 bias-up signal held its grace period by a single tick. Its 2109.00 bias-up target becomes “unfinished business above.” Meanwhile, buyers may have gained traction by exiting the bias environment 1 tick above the noon hour’s high, and entering the final hour 1 tick above the bias environment’s high.

The session was otherwise pessimistic for gapping down, probing a prior low and spending the entire session in negative territory. But it was “ineffectual pessimism” since relevant lows held through the close.

Friday Factors were relevant last week in exacerbating the gap down. They could be relevant this week, too. Resolving the unfinished business above at 2109.00 overnight can reverse back down before Friday’s open. The quasi-traction could invert to trend down through the morning.

Friday Factors can cut either way. Fresh highs could extend relentlessly into the close — as the pattern remains vulnerable to the upside so long as relevant lows are held through the close.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

The rally had its best opportunity to extend upon exiting Wednesday afternoon’s bias environment. But trending up to a fresh session high at 2119.75 was retraced into the final hour’s entry. Its reaction down held 2116.50, but the balance of the session only ranged choppily sideways.

Another missed opportunity to extend the rally was not to close above 2119.00. And not for lack of trying — or, at least, lack of proximity. Bouncing from the 2116.50 dip up to 2119.00 only reacted back down. Closing above 2119.00 would have started signaling resistance was deteriorating.

Meanwhile, “unfinished business below” was left outstanding from the morning at 2106.50. But if still not resolving down Thursday morning, the rally becomes more likely to extend higher up to 2125.25.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

Not bullish. The rally’s next higher objective at  2110.75 was tested Monday but held through the close. That prevented putting into play the next higher objective at 2116.00-2119.00. Tuesday’s close at or under 2110.75 marked the second consecutive session to hold its test. Also not bullish.

Extending higher this morning wasn’t likely because yesterday’s rally gained no traction. Not a solid base for probing into the next higher objective’s 2116.00-2119.00 range. And  2110.75 once again held through the close. Once again, no higher objective was put into play, AFTER fulfilling more upside objectives. Becoming bearish.

The long, long, long-standing objective to retest last Fall’s SPX 2013.50 high — which equates currently to 2016.00 — was neutralized. That was also the overnight “new Globex trend extreme” and it was neutralized quickly the same day. Satisfying buying pressure as fast as it forms doesn’t attract new sponsorship.

Reversing this sort of a setup can unfold quickly, so beware. Not already reversing down sharply Tuesday makes me suspect that a Wreversal Wednesday lies ahead. But only closing above 2119.00 would begin to neutralize the bearish factors listed above.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

Note: A technical problem interrupted the Wrap’s recording, so the discussion is unavailable until halfway through. I’m awaiting a support response to troubleshoot recovery methods, and will email if it becomes available.

Pullback potential to 2107.25-2108.50 was being probed before finally fully fulfilling it at the cash session’s very last minute. That was too late for reacting up enough to suggest another long-entry, let alone a hold-long through the close.

The rally’s probe of fresh highs and new high closed gained no traction for its effort. So, extending the rally higher without delay would require gapping up Tuesday. Otherwise, the uptrend would be unlikely to resume before the afternoon bias environment had begun lapsing.

The current ES  futures front-month has twice probed last Fall’s last relative high. This had long ago become the recovery’s minimum objective. SPX cash is still 3 points short. Regardless, its test was never likely to withstand probing higher, even if only temporarily. But “unfinished business above” is quickly disappearing.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

In addition to gaining traction for its effort, Friday’s recovery was also bullish for its restrained optimism. Not filling the gap back up to Thursday’s close left its attraction above outstanding. Reversing down from here would all but require gapping down sharply.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here, which is extended to include the bigger picture since there is no Saturday Review this weekend.

Monitor Sunday night’s Globex trading beginning at 6pm ET in the chaRTroom here.