Market Wrap

The late-afternoon’s relentless downtrending extended from the 1993.00 session high to probe under the 1977.50 morning low by 6 ticks. The cash session close equated to 1977.25, bouncing almost 4 more points into the futures close.

Sellers gained traction not be exiting the bias environment under the noon hour’s low, but by trending down lower through the final hour entry and the 3:10-3:20 window. Gapping open Wednesday above the final hour’s 1986.50 high could invalidate that traction. Otherwise, not.

Having trended down through the cash session close, gapping up above the afternoon’s high could form a “session-long rally.” Opening any shallower would likely trend down much more aggressively.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

It was like watching a basketball ride the rim in circles before momentum had finally allowed gravity to suck the ball through the hoop. The afternoon’s drop from 2004.50 down to 1988.25 was recovered back up to 2000.25.

Although post-close action extended up to 2002.00, the cash session’s last last-minute leg was a surge from 1995.50.  So, closing slightly positive Monday was fulfilled.

That wasn’t the session’s likeliest scenario. It was the likeliest scenario to maintain a topping pattern. A topping pattern that should start trending back down already Tuesday afternoon or Wednesday morning.

The alternative is to resume the rally by Tuesday afternoon or Wednesday morning. There is no bullish or bearish reason to hover here for any longer.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

That’s right, PRE-market Wrap. We held it one hour early today as I am away from the screens for the final hour…

The morning’s 1993.75 bias-up signal had been probed during its no-bias environment, requiring a complete retracement. In the interim, the noon hour’s pattern had formed a reversal pattern that produces one last leg in the trend’s direction before failing. So, its test of 2007.50 was reversed back under a 2004.25 sell signal, and extended down relentlessly to 1990.75.

We’ll review that and more during this weekend’s Saturday Review — Its link will be emailed overnight.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the PRE-CLOSE Wrap recording here.

Being within the orbit of Wednesday night’s 1987.00 highs made their retest likely, despite not being required. Testing the upside attraction right at the bias environment’s exit could have gone either way. Resistance could have repelled the recovery, but instead resistance accelerated the recovery higher.

Potential to 1993.00 was attacked to within 5 ticks. That is the best singular representation of a cluster of targets in this area. There being potential for a knee-jerk reaction to the morning’s news, we should be aware of outliers at 1997.25 and 2001.00.

The recovery high close doesn’t prevent reacting down at Friday’s Employment Situation report, no more than the rally’s momentum assures reacting up. But reacting down would likely be only temporary, at least until retesting Thursday’s close from below. And since Thursday’s rally gained no traction for its effort, extending durably higher requires gapping up.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

Buyers didn’t gain traction for their effort Wednesday, since the final hour’s entry and the 3:10-3:20 window didn’t trend up. But they were rewarded anyway by later trending up to fresh post open highs at 1984.75.

That neutralized the attraction to the overnight high’s “new Globex trend extreme” 1 tick lower. It required being retested intraday, often the same day (although not necessarily).

Leaving the upside attraction outstanding could have preserved the rally’s momentum in case Wednesday had pulled back. Neutralizing its attraction earlier in the day would have been vulnerable to reacting down durably. But waiting until the session’s last minutes also meant closing above prior highs — that enables recovering from an overnight dip since the gap back to Wednesday’s close will want to be filled.

Other durable paths down are possible, but only post-open, and only after probing a fresh high. Otherwise, Thursday is vulnerable either to backing-and filling again (which is less likely because of it might duplicate the prior session’s pattern), or to gapping up and extending to test the 1993.00 area.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.