Market Wrap

Tuesday’s probe under 1890.00 proved deep enough. For Tuesday. Having stopped short of recovering the last downleg’s 1899.00-1900.00 origin, the late bounce was not sponsored by strong hands.

The last downleg’s 1899.00-1900.00 origin wasn’t even touched during the late bounce. That’s pessimism, which can be bullish from a contrarian perspective.

Wednesday’s first trending attempt is vulnerable to being a false break that reverses more substantially in the opposite direction — especially if the first break is being reversed already during the opening 15 minutes of volatility.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

Not for lack of trying… Friday’s breakout close wasn’t likely to be confirmed after Monday’s open gapped down. Despite not trending down through the morning, a durable rally wasn’t likely to resume. The afternoon did rally, and it did probe Friday’s 1933.00 high up to 1940.00. But the close was overlapping 1933.00 instead of confirming its breakout.

Closing above 1924.00 was repeated, but not confirmed, so 1946.25 isn’t in-play. That doesn’t prevent its test anyway, which would have been likely also to visit 1969.00, just not so much now.

Monday’s 1912.50 low stopped optimistically short of touching last week’s “lower prior highs.” A bounce is still likely from their test, but albeit less likely for the bounce to resume Friday’s breakout.

For gaining traction, Monday afternoon’s buyers are likely to be rewarded with probing fresh highs Tuesday morning. That would be inverted by immediately breaking back under Monday’s 1922.50 prior lows.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

The 1913.00 objective was met early, but not rejected, so the rally extended. The next higher objective at 1924.00 was met late, but not rejected, so the rally extended. Closing above 1924.00 would put into play much higher objectives.

The breakout leg originated late and wasn’t complex, so it requires confirmation as much as any other trigger. The alternative doesn’t necessarily resume the decline, at least not immediately. I’ll describe the likely possible paths during this weekend’s Saturday Review.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Perhaps Thursday afternoon was paralyzed by anxiousness ahead of AMZN’s post-close earnings. The range formed an Ascending triangle between 1878.00-1892.00. The range’s lower-end was attacked suddenly after the cash session close when AMZN announced a big miss that pummeled its stock.

All of which would be bullish. Broader markets don’t react durably to an individual stock. Thursday afternoon’s selling pressure has already been expended in inhibiting higher highs. Less was available to react any deeper on the actual news.

So, potential remains alive for probing above Wednesday’s highs to test 1910.00 — alive, if not necessarily in-play, and if vulnerable to reacting down sharply when that test is done. Probing lower first, anyway, would still have a recovery path available.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

Wednesday’s last half-hour repeatedly overapped 1873.00-1874.75. This was the next lower objective under 1881.00. Its test was probed momentarily down to 1865.00 but that snapped back up to 1873.00-1874.75. Ranging around it encompassed 1969.00-1978.00.

All of that ranging, for all of the final hour. Without closing lower.  No lower objective was put into play, so no lower lows are required, so rallying overnight into a Thursday morning rally is possible.

But rallying overnight is the only path to a Thursday morning rally, since Wednesday afternoon’s drop gained traction for its efforts. Rallying just a little to 1882.00 and 1887.50 could still resolve down Thursday morning.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.