Market Wrap

Wednesday’s cash session ended at 1986.00 much like Tuesday, with a compelling basis for a hold-short. Also like Tuesday’s close, the lower objectives still in-play at 1980.25 or 1978.75 have potential for launching a pre-open rally if tested overnight.

Unlike Tuesday, sellers gained traction, but not decisively. The bias environment exit and final hour’s entry each were barely piercing their prior timing window lows. But buyers certainly weren’t making an effort, so lower lows remain likely, but also vulnerable to reacting back up.

Meanwhile, Tuesday’s break under the Friday-Monday ranging was confirmed by Wednesday’s second consecutive lower close. The market is topping, as has been expected in this area. Having entrenched themselves, the reversal’s sponsorship may sit back and let one more fresh high trap more buyers. But not already rallying at Thursday’s open probably means the decline hasn’t waited to resume.

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This evening, monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom at:
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Was Tuesday afternoon’s slide just defensive posturing ahead of high-profile earnings coming after the close? INTC warned, JPM missed, and being 21 points off the 2014.75 high seems prescient. But while 1993.50 could have held if tested by the open’s gap down, now it’s likelier to be probed down to 1988.00.

So, is a top in? Tuesday’s price action formed a bearish “pivot reversal” by gapping down counter-trend, recovering intraday to a new trend high, and then reversing back down to close under the morning’s low. But context is key, so it’s interesting that the setup formed after two sideways ranging sessions. Without trending into the pivot reversal, the trend isn’t actually reversed.

Recovering from an overnight dip down to 1988.00 that opens above 2004.00 would launch a probe above Tuesday’s high. The morning’s 2016.00 bias-up target doesn’t qualify as “unfinished business” but would likely be tested on the way to 2019.50. Regardless, the air remains very thin up here, so not rallying somehow or enough at Wednesday’s open would be vulnerable to extending down throughout the morning.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here:
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This evening, monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom at:
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Trending on Monday faced the large hurdle of a closed bond market. Historically, that inhibits risk hedging, which inhibits participation, which inhibits trending. Monday’s session ranged almost as narrowly as Saturday and Sunday.

The final hour tends to leave that behind and look forward to the oncoming influences. Monday’s final hour did probe fresh afternoon highs above 2007.50 to 2010.00,  but post-close action has really come alive to probe 3 ticks above its 2012.50 overnight high.

Breaking higher during Monday’s final hour would have given away its weak-handed sponsorship. Even this post-close surge is vulnerable to reversing since it seems to be in reaction to a Fed speaker. But probing higher Tuesday has no reason not to test the outstanding 2019.50 objective before reversing down.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here:
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This evening, monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom at:
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Thursday afternoon’s buyers had gained traction, so strong hands knew the rally wasn’t reversing down. But typically they’re also rewarded for their, ahem, foresight. Yet neither Friday morning’s or afternoon’s bias environments trended up. Downside potential remains limited until probing higher highs — presumably up to 2019.50 since the attraction up to 2011.75 has been neutralized.

Monday’s government holiday introduces a wild card into the timing. But unless new objectives are created along the way, fresh highs is the next opportunity to end what is approaching a two-week old corrective rally.

Details and other markets coverage INCLUDING BIGGER PICTURE are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here:
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• There’s no Saturday Review this weekend, but Bigger Picture was addressed in the video linked above.
• The chaRTroom will NOT be available for Sunday evening’s Globex open, not until after midnight due to travel.

Is this leg coming to an end? Its 2011.75 objective was attacked to within 3 ticks Thursday afternoon. That was last month’s high, printed during Fed Chair Yellen’s press conference. The attraction back up to it was put into play earlier this week by probing the lower-end of that session.

A late reaction down still managed to close above 2000.00 to keep alive potential for extending higher Friday. Thursday afternoon’s buyers gained traction, which also keeps alive that upside potential. None of which prevents initially dipping overnight, or even through the open.

So long as sellers don’t retake control anyway Friday, the retest of 2011.75 should visit 2019.00. Retesting 2011.75-2019.00 early enough could  reverse down sharply into the weekend.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here:
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This evening, monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom at:the ilinc room only…   non-xp ilinc