Market Wrap

[Click here for the morning Bias Parameters]

The only opportunity for Wednesday to trend was late-afternoon. But that window least resembled trending, compared to the other wide intraday swings. Essentially being an inside day and having gained no traction, Wednesday’s session didn’t offer any clues going forward. Nothing prevents Thursday’s open from trying to resolve down, but recovering intraday from a lower probe could be very bullish into and out of the weekend. Not recovering from probing lower could be quite the opposite.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here:
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This evening, monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom at:
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The next lower objective under 1938.00 was 1918.00. Tuesday’s gap down to 1931.00 fluctuated between 1928.50-1936.00 before trending down to the 1918.00 objective. The balance of the afternoon firmed, before a late-afternoon surge up to 1935.00.

That action developed exclusively under last week’s lows. And it satisfied the next lower target’s selling pressure. While closing flat to higher despite the intraday post-open drop. It’s not a buy signal, but it undermines the downside momentum.

Gapping up Wednesday — at least above 1941.00 but probably above 1945.00 — would be attracted higher intraday. Filling the gap(s) at Monday’s 1957.00 and 1963.00 close(s) would be natural, with or without normal volume. Meanwhile, having trended up into the close, gapping down under Tuesday afternoon’s 1918.00 low could form a session-long decline. Tuesday’s “lower prior highs” at 1924.00-1927.00 would try to argue otherwise.

Not gapping up would be difficult to trend at all until late-afternoon. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here:
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This evening, monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom at:
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[Click here for the Morning Bias]

Monday afternoon’s bias-down signal was almost rejected. Price had risen high enough, and soon enough, but then peaked… The 3:10-3:20 timing window could have confirmed the final hour’s entry above the bias environment’s high. Price was well-positioned again, but not optimistic enough to push higher… Then the last-minute surge avoided probing fresh highs into the close. More restrained optimism.

Recovering back to Monday’s 1969.00 high is already likely. Multiple instances of patient buying does makes the retest of Thursday’s 2011.75 high likely, too. Of course, trending up into Monday’s close would make a gap down under the afternoon’s 1948.75 low form a session-decline setup.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here:
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This evening, monitor overnight Globex price action in these chaRTroom links:
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View the Morning Bias here.

Friday morning’s bias environment rallied sharply, from 1950.50 to 1967.50. At least, price rose 17 points during that single window. It sure looks like trending, when many session (prior to the past several weeks) barely range as widely.

This being expiration, the potential is high for only ranging sideways. Sellers didn’t gain traction — the bias environment exit and final hour’s entry both were within the noon hour’s range. Since the morning’s rally didn’t extend, but was retraced back to the pre-open low, we have to consider whether that was really only a range.

Meanwhile, the bullish WedEX didn’t perform. Not obviously, maybe in secret, a secret it kept very well. Still, it wasn’t for lack of trying — the bias environment exit and final hour entry each were greeted in rally mode… before being overwhelmed. The morning rallied, so WedEX couldn’t be inverted, only invalidated. What better price action to invalidate than the price action since Wednesday.

WedEX can still be influential Monday morning, when it tends to compensate for Friday’s underperformance. There are much more relevant influences than WedEX that are capable of absorbing it, so the alternative to a short-squeeze might be a melt-down. Details were discussed during the post-market Wrap recorded here:
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Join us for Saturday Review at 9:30am ET. We’ll look at the bigger picture and game out Sunday night / Monday morning strategy, and review any stock charts you request. Check your email Saturday morning for the login instructions.

FOMC policy statements are reliably volatile, even if that means trending more relentlessly than normal. All the more so with quarterly Fed chair Q&A press conferences. That makes them our most reliably opportunistic opportunities, and Thursday’s wide-ranging roller coaster did not disappoint.

There were plenty of troubling signs that the recovery is running into difficulty, like continually probing relevant objectives without closing decisively above them. Meanwhile, the bearish setup described on Saturday seems to be playing out, rallying to fresh highs and then collapsing, which defines this entire week even before Thursday’s two surges each collapsed.

Thursday’s session resembled a Pivot Reversal, but it wasn’t. The setup extends down without delay, and it still could, but there’s a likelier scenario to bounce, first. The near-term downside potential gets much, much likelier if Friday’s open isn’t already rallying back above 1980.50-1981.50. This being a Friday — quadruple witch, no less — no morning action should be surprising, not even narrow ranging, before the bullish WedEX’s influence becomes relevant.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

This evening, use these links to monitor overnight Globex trading:
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