Market Wrap

Wednesday’s gap up established a position of strength by the opening 15 minutes holding a test “lower prior highs” at 2707.00. That quickly resolved up during the morning bias environment to test the next relevant resistance at 2716.50-2724.00, the morning tested 2729.00. Pulling back to the open recovered to fresh session highs during the afternoon bias environment to test 2737.00.

Up 25 post-open. Up 52-54 points from Tuesday’s close. All of the post-open gain was retraced by a drop that originated at the proxy window exit, testing 2710.00 at the cash session close, and 2706.00 at the futures close.

Reversing down Thursday morning now requires gapping down to isolate Wednesday’s session. Otherwise, Wednesday’s highs are likely to be probed up to 2741.00.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

Tuesday’s “inside day” didn’t seem like it. But only because of the wide intraday range it had to roam. Opening essentially flat with Monday’s close at 2641.00 and quickly surging to 2675.00 doesn’t seem like an inside day, but that was still well under Monday afternoon’s 2683.00 high. Two more swings eventually attacked 2640.00 and bounced again to 2686.00 before the close, just above Monday afternoon’s 2683.00 high — and still well under Monday morning’s 2707.00 high.

Inside day.

Inside days tend to reflect weak-handed sponsorship. So, being biased upward suggests that strong hands are still sellers. That said, inside day or not, “weak-handed” buyers did produce a 41-point rally. Initially extending higher Wednesday would get a benefit of the doubt for extending higher intraday. Meanwhile, trending down overnight could get into position to extend down through Wednesday morning.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

Monday’s open was greeted by a significant overnight rally from Friday’s 2769.50 close, up to 2700.50. But Friday’s 2692.00 high was overlapped throughout the open to prevent isolating Friday’s session. This created a position of weakness — not to prevent probing higher, but to doom higher probes to failure.

The open eventually surged to a fresh high at 2707.00, and then soon began retracing. And reversing. Friday’s close was probed early in the noon hour, bouncing 16 points up to 2682.50. The afternoon’s bias environment was exited in decline, and in capitulation, falling 80 points to 2603.00. Oversold RSIs at the low require an eventual retest. Which could be as early as Tuesday morning since sellers gained traction Monday afternoon.

The last bounce limit was already being probed up to 2624.00 during its first 3 minutes. And that extended to 2643.00 at the close. Interestingly, the last bounce retraced 38.2% of the high-to-low collapse. Also interesting, the afternoon leg measured 61.8% of the high-to-low collapse. Which also means the last bounce retraced 61.8% of the afternoon leg, and could have ended the corrective bounce.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

I missed the fun. Especially for a Friday. Already having extended Thursday’s 2707.00 cash session close to greet Globex at 2688.00, overnight action extended down to 2646.00. Bouncing 26 points into and out of the open quickly peaked at 2672.00, then plunged 44 points to 2627.50.

That’s a lot. But not necessarily too much to continue falling further. It didn’t — not for the morning, and not for the day — as the bias environment was exited at 11:30 above its 2647.00 entry. The interim probe was isolated, which tends to hold on Friday mornings. The recovery extended to 2692.00 as the noon hour ended before another drop attacked 2641.00. The morning’s isolation absorbed the drop and the balance of the session firmed.

Friday developed entirely in negative territory, probing a prior low but not closing under it. Ineffectual Pessimism that could launch a counter-trend bounce if Monday’s open can isolate Friday’s session. Otherwise, greeting the new week in decline could resume the decline — and compensate for Friday’s delay.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

REMINDER: I’m away from the screens through Friday morning. Market Tour and First Trade will be recorded and sent, but the afternoon Bias Parameters may be delayed.

Thursday’s rally started modestly, gapping up 22 points from Wednesday’s 2657.75 cash session close. Relatively modestly, as that still overlapped Wednesday’s late price action down to 2668.00 before extending higher. And it did extend higher, putting all modesty aside, fulfilling the morning’s doubly-renewed 2695.00-2697.00 bias-up target.

That was quite the boost to optimism. Triggering the afternoon’s tight bias-down under the 2699.25 bias-down signal didn’t prevent rallying through it to 2723.50. The bias environment was exited above the noon hour and the final hour was entered even higher to gain traction.

Still, that bias-down rally required being retraced back down to 2699.25, which a late break attacked to within 2 points, leaving its eventual test outstanding as “unfinished business.” But that was only the cash session close. A knee-jerk reaction to AMZN’s post-close earning miss and lower guidance extended the drop to 2684.00 through the futures close. And, just like that, the downside attraction was neutralized.

Also, just like that, the afternoon bias environment’s 2693.00 lower-end was being challenged, instead of its 2713.00 upper-end. The traction gained by recovering the bias environment’s high can be invalidated by opening under its low. Which isn’t so difficult. So, not already trending down below it Friday could be bullish.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.