Market Wrap

Friday’s last 45 minutes ultimately bounced. And not a little, rallying 13 points in 3 distinct legs. But the late surge to 2673.00 originated from fresh session lows at 2660.00. And even the bounce didn’t interrupt the ongoing series of lower lows and lower highs to maintain the downtrend.

So, the bearish WedEX was influential Friday afternoon, which means it should be very influential Monday morning. That doesn’t preclude gapping up sharply before the intraday influence takes over. It doesn’t prevent gapping down or opening flat, either.

Meanwhile, Friday’s low stopped optimistically short of filling an outstanding gap in the 2658.00 area. It’s less likely to hold a later test. Or, at least, unlikely to be recovered without probing under it decisively. Otherwise, while it’s too late to invert WedEX, opening above 2685.00 would suggest that something has changed dramatically.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
THERE IS NO MARKET WRAP THIS WEEKEND DUE TO TRAVEL. CHARTROOM WILL RE-OPEN SUNDAY EVENING WITH GLOBEX.

Overnight and pre-open selling neutralized two pieces of “unfinished business below” left outstanding from Wednesday at 2703.75 and 2702.25. Neutralizing an attraction usually creates vulnerability to reversing direction. But here it enabled a gap down under relevant support that reinforced the bearish WedEX.

And the gap down also enabled trending down throughout the day. It wasn’t a “session-long decline” setup, but it was session-long decline behavior — every timing window but one probed a fresh low. Ultimately, the 2681.50 afternoon low touched its bias-down target, also filling the gap back to Monday’s close.

The afternoon bias environment exit wasn’t high enough early enough to trigger a short-squeeze. The proxy window was likely on its way to reversing down when a Trump headline triggered a 12-point spike up to 2699.00. Dipping into the close retraced it by 61.8% down to 2691.00.

The bearish WedEX influence is scheduled to begin Friday afternoon. The morning isn’t required to bounce, but may need to, since the headline’s knee-jerk reaction brought in new sponsorship. Regardless, trending in either direction from this setup is likely to begin by gapping.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

Wednesday was a day of conflicting signals. So although Wednesday is done, the signal it left us may be inverted, too. That signal is a bearish WedEX. The setup formed by testing resistance at 2715.00 and closing back under the 2711.50 lower-end of the structure containing it.

Closing under 2702.25 would have been more decisive. It’s likely to be tested anyway, being “unfinished business” from Wednesday morning’s no-bias environment. Gapping down under 2702.25 would still reinforce the bearish WedEX. Opening above 2724.00 would be enough strength in time to re-qualify the WedEX as bullish.

Oversold RSIs at Wednesday’s 2703.75 low is also unfinished business requiring a retest. Fulfilling it, and preferably also 2702.25 — without breaking lower — would be bullish going into the weekend. Similarly, their break at any time would be bearish.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

Tuesday’s open compensated for Monday’s failure to recover 2681.50. Probing it late Monday afternoon had dipped back under it through the cash session close, and barely settled back up at it. But overnight action had firmed and extended enough for the open to absorb a 7-point drop to 2692.50 without even threatening to re-enter Monday’s range.

The opening dip was quickly absorbed, and the rally was quickly resumed. It extended into the noon hour up to 2708.50, and resumed coming out of the afternoon bias environment. The next higher objective at 2715.00-2722.00 was attacked to within 5 ticks during Tuesday’s last half-hour. Another pullback similar to the open’s dip still found time to test the morning’s highs down to 2705.50.

Maintaining a gap up Tuesday had triggered by proxy the setup that almost triggered Monday afternoon, which pointed higher through Wednesday morning. That’s still likely, so long as Wednesday’s open doesn’t gap down too sharply. Nothing would prevent a morning rally from extending higher through the close or being reversed through the afternoon. Beige Book and WedEX will be relevant influences at the time.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

Closing above 2672.00 last week would have put into play the next higher objectives at 2715.00-2722.00. Having tested 2672.00 up to 2680.50 without closing above 2672.00, now higher objectives are put into play by closing above 2680.50 — and really, by closing above the room for noise up to 2681.50.

Monday came close. As close as possible without being decisive. The afternoon bias environment had dipped from 2687.00 to almost 2676.00. The last half-hour surged, but was brought back down to 2681.50.

Closing under 2672.00 would have rejected the probe above last week’s high, perhaps also signaled that momentum was reversing down. But having held up, rallying remains possible Tuesday. Buyers gained no traction for their efforts Monday, so only gapping up would be reliable for extending higher.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.