Market Wrap

Tuesday night’s 14-point rally to 2584.00 was briefly probed at Wednesday’s open by 6 ticks up to 2585.50. Reinforcements were unlikely to maintain the rally, not with so sizeable of a rally already, and the afternoon’s FOMC policy statement being just hours away. The morning’s dip back down to 2575.00 should have been the end of that reaction.

And in reality, it was. A favorable reaction to the FOMC news would have been likely. Until a terror scare triggered the 2574.00. bias-down that dipped again to 2571.50. It was invalidated, but never rejected. The noon hour’s 2578.75 high was attacked but never recovered. And the close settled back down at 2574.00.

The only “unfinished business” left outstanding is at Wednesday’s 2581.50 gap up above all prior highs. Even that isn’t a big enough attraction to prevent an even deeper dip from developing without delay. NOT already starting a deeper dip at Thursday’s open would reinforce the attraction up to Wednesday’s open, and to the 2590.50 objective still in-play.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

Tuesday’s gap up didn’t immunize the session from being able to probe Monday afternoon’s range to fresh lows. But gapping up did enable more room to expend selling pressure without it damaging the recovery’s chart.

Recovering from the open’s selling pressure defined the morning’s high, and then also the noon hour and afternoon bias environment’s highs. The final hour arrived with an attempt to break higher, but it only got to 2575.50. Tragedy on a bike path in New York may have been responsible for reacting back down into the range to 2571.00.

Wednesday’s opening setup remains unchanged from Tuesday. Gapping up would likely extend higher intraday, its objective being a retest of Friday’s high. Reacting down from a gap up would be at risk of extending down into Monday afternoon’s range, and and through it to test 2560.00.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

2563.75 maintained a second consecutive recovery close to confirm the next higher objective at 2590.50 is in-play. And the confirmation was done without expending buying pressure. Monday’s entire session developed in negative territory. Its post-open surge only tested the structure containing the gap back up to Friday’s 2578.50 close.

No “unfinished business below” was left outstanding. This includes oversold RSIs at the 2565.50 low, since that had developed during the noon hour when retest isn’t required. But a late opportunity to gain traction was missed by not recovering 2570.25-2571.00 before coming within 3 minutes of the cash session close.

Recovering 2571.00 overnight would be credible for extending higher Tuesday, especially above 2574.25. Otherwise, exiting the open under Monday’s 2565.50 low would make 2560.50‘s test likely next.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

Market Wrap was held an hour early today, and I’m away from the screens for the final hour. You can watch the Wrap recording here.

New trend highs up to 2580.75 printed when the afternoon bias environment came within view of lapsing. The actual lapse trended back down under the noon hour’s 2578.75 prior high. This setup creates risk of trending down during the final hour.

Trending down into the close just a little could prevent a new trend high close on a Friday. Last Friday’s new trend high close still requires another, regardless.

Trending down into the close a lot could also prevent closing above 2563.75 recovery. Confirmed by a second-day consecutive higher close Monday would all but ensure extending to 2590.50. The last close above 2563.75 was not confirmed.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO SATURDAY REVIEW THIS WEEKEND. CHARTROOM WILL BE AVAILABLE AGAIN AT SUNDAY NIGHT’S GLOBEX OPEN. ENJOY THE WEEKEND!

Thursday began by retracing a gap up to touch Wednesday afternoon’s 2557.50 high as support. The session ended by testing Wednesday afternoon’s 2556.00 pivotal high as support. Both tests were recovered back into the range, not back above a relevant resistance. There’s no evidence of Thursday’s range resolving up.

The later dip was barely during the cash session. It originated after having come within 3 minutes of the cash session close. Its recovery was even more detached, coming entirely after the cash session close.

The late recovery was substantial, nearly 7 points. It was also relevant, overlapping the 2561.75 opening print — which the final hour had otherwise narrowly avoided doing. The post-close bounce was almost in time to signal a compelling “hold-short.” Gapping down and trending lower Friday morning is still a risk. Gapping up could render that downside risk moot and marginalize sellers for the day.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.