Market Wrap

Two consecutive no-bias signals almost says it all. Wednesday’s inside day was uneventful, hovering at Tuesday’s highs. Monday’s confirmed breakout has yet to be fulfilled by at least one more higher close. Wednesday’s last-minute surge doesn’t suggest strong-handed buyers are suddenly making their move. Neither factor protects against an interim pullback, as I describe in today’s video.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

Monday night probed the 2487.00 intraday high by 4 points up to 2491.00. Tuesday’s gap up to its 2489.00 bias-up signal extended straight up briefly to 2493.50, and held up long enough to trigger bias-up. The balance of the morning dipped back down to test the 2489.00 bias-up signal as support.

Retesting the morning’s high up to 2494.00 also reacted down, albeit shallower before recovering again. A last-minute surge to fresh highs at 2494.75 characterized the session as trending. And the second consecutive higher close confirmed Monday’s breakout. At least an eventual third higher close is required.

Meanwhile, coming within 3 ticks of the morning’s 2495.50 bias-up target has neutralized its attraction above. Despite the target being neutralized, it was too late for a reaction down to actually reject the attraction above. That doesn’t prevent reacting down immediately Wednesday, but it does require a reaction down to be aggressive. Otherwise, the upward bias remains intact.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

Weekend weather wasn’t a game-changer for the ongoing topping pattern. Monday’s surprising relief rally did position the market to for a bigger leg up if reinforcements were to arrive Tuesday. Otherwise, either an immediate pullback is needed to refuel buyers. Extending higher too quickly would find buyers extended and buying pressure expended.

Extending higher would also fulfill Monday afternoon’s “unfinished business above” at its 2490.00 bias-up target. The final hour touched a sell signal at 2484.00 without triggering it. Monday morning was the first actual uptrending since the prior Tuesday afternoon’s reaction up from the morning’s plunge.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

THE ADOBE CHARTROOM ADD-ON LOADS VERY SIMPLY IN ONE CLICK, BUT PLEASE CONTACT ME IMMEDIATELY IF YOU ENCOUNTER ANY DIFFICULTY

[PROGRAMMING NOTE FOLLOW-UP: I will be available as usual on Monday. Didn’t even have to don my Star Wars costume or wink/sneer at the defendant.]

Will Friday’s pattern resolve the following night, as did Thursday’s? The pre-open threat of a morning collapse was avoided by trending up through 9:45. That even put into play a higher objective, which the morning nearly fulfilled. But spending the entire session in negative territory, and in the same range that is already distributive, doesn’t prevent breaking lower later.

But, how much later. Friday afternoon also avoided collapsing. It did trend down, probing fresh post-open lows through the proxy window. That’s too late to attract new strong-handed sponsorship, so not extending down actually reflects weak-handed optimism. Bearish.

We’ll review the bigger picture and likely scenarios for next week and their setups at this weekend’s Saturday Review. It starts at 9:30 ET, and I’ll email you its link in the morning.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

You received instructions for updating the Adobe add-on. I’ll provide the link again after Friday’s close, and before the Saturday Review…

[I’m rolling coverage forward to Dec which trades at a 6-7 tick discount from Sep] Wednesday’s post-close plunge wasn’t actually rejected. And it was only eventually retraced. The initial shock to the system and the late rally combined to inhibit the open’s gap up from extending.

The open’s gap u reacted down to retrace essentially all of the overnight recovery, if not the actual overnight low. Another bounce also failed. Firming through the afternoon bias environment wasn’t reversed down, not for lack of trying. Firming again probed fresh afternoon highs after the futures close, too late to gain traction for its effort.

Once again, gapping up above prior highs is required to launch a credible rally Friday morning. Already having rejected two consecutive too shallow gaps up, gapping up again Friday is likely to extend higher. So, not gapping up Friday is likely to trend back down.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.