Market Wrap

“Break” may be too harsh a word for describing Tuesday’s late-afternoon break higher. It was more of a gentle snap, as the elements forming it were less than optimal. Its potential to test the morning’s 2468.50 high was attacked to within 1 point.

Further upside potential didn’t just fail to materialize. It was rejected by a sudden, steep and substantial reaction down to 2463.00. That’s a second consecutive session of failing to close decisively above 2463.00. It’s also a close under Monday’s highs. And it’s all that, after having tested 2471.00-2473.50 overnight.

Tuesday’s intraday attempt to reject Thursday’s trend change signal failed. But it remains at risk of failing since sellers didn’t recapture 2459.00, despite its test being “unfinished business below” from the morning’s bias parameters. No bearish resolution prevents an interim retest of Tuesday night’s 2471.00-2473.50 high — but its retest must be rejected aggressively if at all.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

Sunday night’s relentless, single-minded trending had paused at 2455.50 several hours before Monday’s open. It resumed immediately, and peaked at 2466.50 during the morning’s bias environment. Ranging narrowly back down to 2463.00 finally probed down a couple of points while the bias environment was lapsing. But only momentarily, and eventually recovered back to the range’s upper-end.

Ultimately, a last-minute attack on the morning’s 2466.50 high was reversed by a last-second probe under 2463.00. The next higher objective at 2471.00-2473.50 was not put into play. That’s not necessarily bearish. The late probe down to 2461.00 never extended to close under 2459.00, so Thursday’s trend change signal is in jeopardy. It would be saved either by Tuesday’s open breaking back under 2459.00, or by closing under Tuesday under Monday’s 2454.00 low.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

Thursday night’s lows didn’t bottom at an arbitrary level, but upon testing and retesting Friday morning’s 2430.75 bias-down target. Rallying 16 points into the morning’s bias environment high was counter-trend, trying to reverse up in the context of an ongoing decline. It failed.

More than failing the attempt to reverse up, the bias environment trended down. More bearish context. So, an afternoon bias environment recovery attempt would be doomed to failure. If there were one. And there was. <<==(click for a video lesson)

Its reaction down retraced to the morning’s post-open 2436.00 low. And no deeper, before bouncing into the close. That is already dubious support, and now it has been chipped away. It won’t be likely to withstand a retest of Thursday night’s lows if retested.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Join us at 9:30am ET for the weekly Saturday Review. Look for an email notification in the morning.

Thursday night’s lows didn’t bottom at an arbitrary level, but upon testing and retesting Friday morning’s 2430.75 bias-down target. Rallying 16 points into the morning’s bias environment high was counter-trend, trying to reverse up in the context of an ongoing decline. It failed.

More than failing the attempt to reverse up, the bias environment trended down. More bearish context. So, an afternoon bias environment recovery attempt would be doomed to failure. If there were one. And there was. <<==(click for a video lesson)

Its reaction down retraced to the morning’s post-open 2436.00 low. And no deeper, before bouncing into the close. That is already dubious support, and now it has been chipped away. It won’t be likely to withstand a retest of Thursday night’s lows if retested.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Join us at 9:30am ET for the weekly Saturday Review. Look for an email notification in the morning.

Gapping down Thursday under Wednesday afternoon’s ~2463.00 low formed a “session-long decline” setup, which was confirmed by extending down through the open. All but one timing window probed the prior timing window’s low, the exception being the afternoon bias environment. It completed a bounce from 2442.75 to 2453.75. The balance of the session melted down to 2435.75.

That’s 36 points under Wednesday’s 2471.75 close, and 53 points under Tuesday’s 2488.50 high.

Thursday was also a breakout close. Tuesday’s temporary surge had closed back under the range’s upper-end, and Wednesday’s break had ranged choppily around its lower-end. A second consecutive lower close Friday would confirm the breakout, and require an eventual third lower close. Not closing Friday back above 2459.50 would also require an eventual third lower close. That was the interim low under which Thursday’s close has formed a trend reversal setup.

The next lower objective is 2425.25, likely to be probed by at least 4 points. Any post-open weakness Friday would likely fulfill it intraday.  Or, Friday’s open may gap down under it and extend deeper into the weekend… and out of it. Of course, lower lows may be avoided altogether — albeit temporarily — by avoiding any post-open weakness.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.