Mid-day Update

No-bias trending is retraced.

The open didn’t almost literally explode higher. At least, not above Tuesday-Wednesday highs. But neither did the pattern implode lower. Post-open action did trend almost straight up from gapping down. So, the pattern isn’t yet required to reverse down.

No-bias trending required reversing down eventually. Not just Tuesday’s from 2342.25, but also this morning’s probing above its 2362.50 bias-up signal. It was touched at the overnight high, and probed this morning up to 2366.75. But its attraction below has been neutralized by dropping into the noon hour down to 2359.00.

That tested this afternoon’s 2360.00 bias-down signal. Which held. It should now define the bias environment’s lower-end. Even if tested again, at least until the bias environment lapsing begins.

Meanwhile, a bounce can try (and may be trying) to test the afternoon’s 2366.00 bias-up signal. An air pocket above to 2369.00 has already been utilized, but could be retraced.

No trending today, as the market tends to a narrow range.

Holding a test of the morning’s 2350.00 bias-down signal had put into play an offsetting test of its 2358.00 bias-up signal. It was probed by 3 ticks. Reacting down 6 points was consolidated through the noon hour, resisted by yesterday afternoon’s 2357.00 bias-up target.

Two representations of buying pressure fulfilled during the last two major timing windows. And still no further rally. Is the rally pausing, or stuck?

There’s also still no significant reversal down. And this afternoon’s bias-up did signal — late, but it is already producing a fresh high for confirmation.

Exiting this afternoon’s bias environment without yet breaking above yesterday’s highs would further suggest the rally’s sponsorship needs refueling. A lot of buying pressure would have been fulfilled at that point, so a shallow reaction down wouldn’t be relevant.

By the same token, exiting the bias environment probing above yesterday’s highs would suggest new sponsorship has arrived. And the flip-side of that token would expect any credible rally to be steep.

No-bias trending pushes higher.

This morning’s 2342 25 bias-up signal didn’t trigger at 10:15. It should define the window’s upper-end if tested during the no-bias environment. Probing above it is called “no-bias trending” and requires being retraced to at least 2342.25 — often back down to the 2339.75 10:15 print.

None of which has prevented this morning’s no-bias trending from extending higher. This afternoon’s 2351.75 bias-up signal has triggered, and its 2357.00 bias-up target is now less than 2 points higher.

There’s no particular timing to fulfilling the required retracement back to 2342.25. And now unfinished business above would be left outstanding at 2357.00. Unless 2357.00 were tested first.

There’s another influence lurking. I just described how this morning’s rally is premature for originating during a no-bias environment. It’s also premature since yesterday’s rally had gained no traction for its effort. So, rallying before late-afternoon is vulnerable to retracing back through its origin.

Rallying in spite of bearish influences may be weak-handed sponsorship, and creating pent-up selling pressure. But meanwhile the bias-up is in-play. And not reacting down to its 2357.00 target could extend even higher.

Stopping short of the bias-up target.

The first half-hour recovered from attacking 2317.00 support to testing 2327.00 resistance. It slowed from there. Not for a very long time, but at a time nonetheless that defined the difference between strong hands and weak. Waiting to probe higher until after the first hour identified the probe’s sponsorship as weak-handed.

Weak-handed, or not, the probe has extended both substantially and relentlessly. But not surprisingly. Its objectives extended from 2331.00-2335.50, all tested before noon.

Reacting down didn’t prevent higher highs, but they were delayed until the noon hour. Which also reflected weak-handed sponsorship. And which also did not prevent extending higher again.

Now this afternoon’s 2335.50 bias-up signal has triggered. And it’s being tested as support, after an interim bounce stopped more than 1 point short of its 2341.50 bias-up target. Overbought RSIs at the high require its retest.

Otherwise, back under 2332.75 would start to signal that overbought RSIs will be left outstanding. Resuming the decline today would target fresh lows, and potentially also 2311.00. Even while closing today above 2331.00 would marginalize sellers, it wouldn’t prevent a shallower dip tomorrow before recovering.

Knee-jerk reactions exploiting noon hour noise.

Piercing the 2352.50 bias-up target immediately reacted down to eventually test 2348.50. Anything lower would have qualified as a lower low, the first since the open, if not also since the overnight low. A buy signal above 2351.00 was soon tested.

None of which prevented a negative knee-jerk reaction to a headline, plunging more than 7 points to 2343.50. But a timely reversal before noon would have been more credible. Reacting to a headline is weak-handed. And originating during the noon hour is vulnerable to being only noise.

In fact, a surge attacked 2350.00 several minutes later. Its catalyst was also a headline, and it also originated during the noon hour. So, extending the bounce into a recovery isn’t assured. But triggering either bias is likely to extend. And triggering no-bias could still range choppily.