Mid-day Update

Recovering dips, but not stopping them.

Fresh post-10:15 lows weren’t necessary for the morning’s 2363.75 bias objective to become “unfinished business below.” But the bias environment exit to slide 6 points, anyway, to 2165.50.

Coming to at least within 3 ticks of 2363.75 would have neutralized it. But bouncing into and out of the noon hour tested the afternoon’s 2371.50 bias-up signal.

Isolating the probe under the open’s low to the noon hour is a less predictive version of isolating the overnight dip under yesterday’s lows. Neither reverses momentum up without also triggering a buy signal, but they do offer context to selling.

Triggering late no-bias isn’t required to trend back down from the bias-up signal. Hovering here until the bias environment begins lapsing could still launch a rally into the close (and through tomorrow morning). Not holding a test of 2363.75 as support would next target 2357.50.

Early recovery falls flat.

This morning’s rally from 2366.25 attacked 2375.00. RSIs diverged negatively, so calculable resistance there launched a pullback. That much was anticipated. Retracing substantially all of the rally was not.

The bias environment exit at 2367.00 was retraced up to 2372.00. Still testing the 2371.50 bias-up signal at 1:20 and 1:30 has triggered noN-bias.

None of which is necessarily bearish. Triggering bias-down would have contradicted the bottoming template. But there’s still time to rally out of the afternoon bias environment, as any further delay would be very suspicious, and very vulnerable to extending down.

The pullback seems to be done.

“Unfinished business below” from Friday at 2372.25 was met by Sunday night’s plunge. “Lower prior highs” at 2368.50 was met overnight and by Monday’s opening dip. Fresh lows later probed down to 2367.00.

Exiting the bias environment back above the 2368.50 bias-down target robbed the decline of its momentum. Potential for extending down to 2364.00 may be neutralized. All downside objectives are now neutralized.

Is the pullback done? Entering the noon hour above another the morning’s 2375.00 bias-down signal would have been optimal confirmation. It was eventually touched along with this afternoon’s 2375.25 bias-up signal within 3 minutes of the 1:20 bias timing window. They’re being probed by more than 1 point.

So, the grace period is invoked. Exceeding 2375.25 through 1:30 would trigger late bias-up. Holding its test could delay extending higher for another hour, assuming 2374.00 had held tests as support.

Noon hour bounce fizzles.

This morning’s 2378.50 bias-down triggered late, but it triggered. Its 2372.25 bias-down target was attacked to within 6 ticks, but it became “unfinished business below.”

Bouncing into and out of the noon hour got a boost from Yellen’s remarks. A spike down to 2376.00 blipped-back up immediately to touch 2381.00. But the blip-up has been retraced entirely.

It’s too late to trigger bias-down under 2375.00. Probing under it during the no-bias environment isn’t likely. But it’s possible, and its “no-bias trending” and required to recover, which would not be inappropriate since fresh lows are likely to recovery anyway.

Extended drop is countering yesterday’s rally.

Triggering this morning’s 2389.25 bias-down signal targeted 2384.25. It was tested down to 2382.50 as the bias environment began lapsing. So, the bias environment did not begin lapsing back above 2387.25-2388.25, which would have isolated the drop as being weak-handed.

No matter. Recovering the morning’s 2389.25 bias-down signal by noon would have isolated the drop, too. Nope. Bouncing into noon only attacked 2387.25, more than 2 points too low.

Each timing window that fails to recover a relevant level must recover a higher relevant level to signal stronger hands are buying. To signal strong hands are buying, and also that no lower objectives won’t be met.

The next lower objectives are “lower prior highs” at 2375.00, and the prior upside objective at 2372.25-2373.75. Deeper dips might still be avoidable by recovering the 2390.00 bias-up signal at the bias environment exit.