Mid-day Update

Rally’s next objective now being met.

This morning’s 2323.25 bias-up target was clearly influential, being the window’s high. But it did not attract counter-trend sponsorship to reverse the trend down. So, as the bias environment lapsing came within view, fresh highs became likely by default.

Fresh highs printed quickly as the bias environment began lapsing, and extended slowly as the noon hour developed. But the slope has steepened into the bias timing window. The 2325.75 bias-up signal is being probed up to 2327.75.

The bias-up signal was also being touched within 3 minutes of 1:20, invoking the grace period. And 2327.00 is being overlapped by every bar probing above it. Triggering late bias-up would still target 2331.50, but is more easily invalidated without probing any higher after 1:30.

TODAY’S MARKET WRAP BEGINS ONE HOUR EARLY AT 2:33 ET BECAUSE I WILL BE AWAY FROM THE SCREENS DURING THE FINAL HOUR.

This morning’s rally was relentless, and very productive, extending to 2306.00. The most dominant pattern I’m tracking satisfies a lot of buying pressure there. Reacting down during the noon hour suggests as much.

But reacting down only to the 2302.75 sell signal suggests that other patterns are influential, too. And now 2306.00 is being retested.

2306.00 is this afternoon’s bias-up signal, and it did not trigger. Probing above it could be noise, but extending above it before 2:30 would be “no-bias trending” and doomed to failure. There’s room up to 2307.00 before suggesting a move is underway to the 2311.00 objective.

2311.00 doesn’t require being met. There is otherwise no higher objective or “unfinished business above” outstanding. And there is a lot of room below if upside momentum were to lapse.

Morning returns to unchanged.

Having held this morning’s 2283.50 bias-down signal, an offsetting test of the 2292.00 bias-up signal was put into play. It was attacked to 2290.50, and has become “unfinished business above.”

Consolidating through the noon hour attacked 2286.00 as support. Twice. Both reactions up tested 2289.00. It’s being tested again now — still short of the 2290.50 morning’s high, the 2291.25 overnight high, and the 2292.00 unfinished business above.

Stopping pessimistically short of the overnight high this morning could be constructive pessimism, potentially bullish from a contrarian perspective. Hovering just under unchanged isn’t very predictive either way, but it has nonetheless kept the market in proximity to launching another rally leg.

Of course, another rally leg would probably be limited to testing 2292.00, which is now also this afternoon’s bias-up signal. And a 5-point reaction down would still be within this morning’s range. But rallying out of the bias environment lapsing would still be able to extend to new highs.

Sliding into and out of the noon hour.

The open’s gap up dipped just long enough to probe 1 point under this morning’s 2291.25 bias-up signal. then it quickly recovered to probe the overnight high by 1 point up to 2295.00. The bias-up signal triggered, but price only ranged narrowly back down to 2292.00 until the bias environment lapsing came within view.

Then price slid under the pre-10:15 low. That might not have been relevant, except price had never probed above the pre-10:15 high. Exiting the bias environment back at or under the open’s low invalidated the bias-up. Its target did not become “unfinished business above.”

That pattern created sell signals under 2290.00 targeting 2286.50. It was probed during the noon hour by 1 point. The afternoon’s 2288.00 bias-down signal was still being tested for long enough to trigger noN-bias.

Holding the test of 2286.50 allows the dip to be no more than a temporary detour before resuming the rally. Isolating the dip to the noon hour would have been helpful, but the reaction up was too shallow if not also too late. Regardless, the rally need not resume today, but it’s still possible so long as no fresh lows are probed.

Noon hour slide is retesting overnight low.

Holding a test of the 2286.25 bias-down signal through the 10:15 bias timing window put into play an offsetting test of the 2295.25 bias-up signal. Piercing fresh post-open highs after 10:15 by only 3 ticks was still sufficient to protect the setup from being invalidated.

And it wasn’t. But neither has it extended any higher to its objective. In fact, just the opposite. Sliding since the bias environment began lapsing at 11:30, through the noon hour, just pierced the 2284.00 overnight low by 2 ticks. Invoking the bias signal’s grace period didn’t help it to avoid triggering noN-bias, still overlapping 2285.25 at both 1:20 and 1:30.

Back above 2286.50 would start to signal another rally attempt underway. Otherwise, drifting further down to 2281.00 or lower is likely.