Mid-day Update

The rally persists, but without a corrective refueling dip.

This morning’s 2185.00 bias-up signal held as support when tested during the morning’s bias environment. The plunge that tested it stopped suddenly and reversed up gradually. The earlier pattern at 2191.25 requiring a retest was then probed into the noon hour.

The room for noise above 2185.00-2186.00 up to 2192.00 wasn’t very influential as the rally extended through the noon hour. Now 2195.25 has been touched, while triggering this afternoon’s 2192.50 bias-up signal.

It’s too late to invalidate the bias-up, targeting 2199.50. But bias-up can be invalidated by exiting the bias environment back under the 2186.50 bias-down signal — so long as 2195.25 isn’t yet probed. Otherwise, a fresh high would entrench the uptrend.

Currently, a 2193.50 pullback limit is being tested, and back under 2192.50 would reverse momentum down to at least test 2188.25. None of which alone would yet invalidate the upside.

No-bias triggers as WedEX arrives.

REMINDER: I am away from the screens for today’s last timing window beginning at 2:30 ET… There will be no more updates and no market Wrap. Don’t forget about tomorrow morning’s Saturday Review.

Soon after triggering no-bias, a steep slide began that quickly touched its 2179.25 objective. Room for a fresh low down to 2177.50 was also touched before the bias environment was even close to lapsing.

The balance of the bias environment and the noon hour ranged narrowly at the lows. Firming through the noon hour’s end is now attacking 2182.00. That’s well under the afternoon’s 2184.25 bias-up signal.

This afternoon’s bearish WedEX is now influential. It might not prevent a bigger bounce, but it does suggest the bounce will fail. Whatever the price action, it should resolve in lower lows.

The influence will be relevant Monday, too. We’ll discuss it during this weekend’s Saturday Review. I’ll send info overnight.

Upside targets met.

Fresh highs have probed 2180.00 up to 2185.00-2186.00 again. This time intraday, and a little more thoroughly than after Tuesday’s close.

The potential for reversing down is now greater, but the requirement is not. There is still room for noise up to 2192.00, which is also not required to be met.

Meanwhile, this afternoon triggered no-bias. So, its the bias environment’s upper-end should be defined by its 2186.25 bias-up signal. Probing above it would be doomed to failure.

Closing today back under 2180.00 would increase the vulnerability to trending down tomorrow afternoon. The bearish WedEX’s influence already suggests as much. So, closing today above 2180.00 isn’t likely.

Overnight rally retraced but not reversed, also not resumed.

Already testing yesterday morning’s 2169.50 lower prior highs pre-open was sufficient to launch a recovery. Holding a post-open test of 2169.50 would have been more reliable. And probably more successful, since the post-open bounce only tested 2176.25 before falling back down to 2169.00.

2169.00 was still being tested as the afternoon bias environment began. The bias-down signal was another 2 points lower, so it didn’t trigger. It hasn’t been rejected much yet, either. Bounces are only attacking 2173.00.

Not rallying this morning would have been likely to produce a new downleg. Not yet reversing down by now suggests any later attempt will fail. Regardless, trending out of the bias environment in either direction would be likely to extend.

Another pass at breaking resistance passes.

The overnight rally touched 2169.75, then reacted down to 2161.50. Recovering through the open touched 2169.25, and this morning’s ultimate high was another tick higher. Interim reactions down tested and retested 2165.00.

This is a no-bias environment. Fresh highs may be probed, but this afternoon’s 2169.00 bias-up signal should otherwise define the bias environment range’s upper-end. A more substantial rally would be credible after the bias environment begins lapsing at 2:30.

Back under 2164.50 would still be credible for probing back into yesterday’s range. And that would still be vulnerable to becoming a new downleg.