Mid-day Update
Mid-day Update… And announcement.
We’ll do an early Market Wrap at 1:30 pm ET. It will be expanded since there’s no Saturday Review. All are welcome… I’ll be gone for the day after that.
The pre-open surge into a Rising Wedge had resolved aggressively to the upside. 
We discussed it during the Market Tour, and its potential influence on intraday action.
That potential influence required post-open patterns to form with a similar legacy. In fact, the inability to break convincingly above the 2181.25-2182.00 renewed bias-up target did create reversal potential. And the morning drifted lower.
Now the lower quadrant of the pre-open Rising Wedge is being tested at 2173.50. This could be the pullback’s end. There is room for noise down to 2170.75, but any lower would target the surge’s 2166.00 origin.
Sliding sharply today depended greatly on already trending down more deeply this morning. The noon hour wasn’t greeted low enough to enable a collapse. There’s still a vulnerability, but not the same risk. And the balance of the session could simply firm and bounce if 2173.50 holds its test as support.
Mid-day Update… Over, and also out.
REMINDER: I’M AWAY THIS AFTERNOON. SCROLL DOWN FOR DETAILS.
Breaking under this morning’s 2164.50 bias-down signal AFTER the 10:30 was too late to trigger. And it was too early to be “no-bias trending” But it did invalidate the no-bias. And for good reason, as a plunge probed fresh lows — including last Friday’s low — down to 2154.75, neutralizing yesterday’s “unfinished business below” at 2156.50.
A credible extended decline needed to be underway through yesterday’s close, or else already probing lower at this morning’s open. Neither being the case did not preclude attempting it, only succeeding at it.
The attempt has been recovered up to 2168.00. This afternoon’s 2164.50 bias-up signal triggered, and its 2170.75 target is in-play. It could be probed as noise up to 2174.25, which is the most I’m expecting. Between the momentum following this morning’s slingshot, and the anxiousness ahead of tomorrow’s Employment Situation report — and three days of illiquidity fast approaching — strong-handed sponsorship isn’t likely to appear.
Meanwhile, I’ll be away from screens this afternoon from 2:00 pm ET. There will be no further blog update after Daily Spot, and no post-market Wrap or recording. I’ll update the blog again later tonight… Tomorrow morning will operate as normal, and then I’ll be gone through the afternoon.
Mid-day Update… Stopping optimistically short.
Retesting same level that held Friday’s drop.
Friday’s low formed when its intraday decline filled a three-week old gap back down to 2160.00. Its “unfinished business below” was one of several that offered context to the subsequent rally being unsustainable. Anyway, its late-afternoon test couldn’t attract new sponsorship, and price bounced into the weekend.
Now Monday’s interim rally to 2181.50 has been retraced to retest 2160.00.
The test this time is shallower, barely piercing 2160.00. It did trigger the 2164.50 bias-down signal, and its target is to probe 1 point under Friday’s 2157.50 bias-down target.
Today’s price action is entirely in-line with the massive topping rolling over. But even if we knew with a 100% degree of certainty the bounce would resolve down, a bigger detour can’t be dismissed. Not too much — there’s still limited time for a drop to get underway or out-of-the way.
Mid-day Update… Creeping down.
Sitting at support.
Yesterday afternoon’s pullback objective was 2171.50. The effort stopped short before the close, and took awhile restarting this morning. But 2171.50 was touched at this morning’s low.
And has since held.
The noon hour bounced to 2176.00 and the bias environment is within 1 tick of 2171.50. Being no-bias, the 2107.75 bias-down signal should define the low if tested… until the bias environment begins lapsing.
Breaking lower as the bias environment lapsing comes into view would essentially target a retest of Friday’s 2157.50 low. Breaking lower prematurely should at least tag-up with the bias-down signal before extending. That tag-up could recover, instead.
Mid-day Update… There’s a fork in this road. Take it.
SPECIAL NOTE: MARKET WRAP WILL BEGIN ONE HOUR EARLY AT 3:03 PM ET.
This morning’s noN-bias environment was almost followed this afternoon by another. But the 2182.00 bias-up signal was not probed in time to trigger, touched in time to invoke the grace period, or exceeded in time to invalidate its signal.
This is a no-bias environment, and 2182.00 should define the range’s upper-end. Until the bias environment begins lapsing at 2:30, or at least comes within view.
Probing above 2182.00 prematurely would be “no-bias trending” that is doomed to failure. Probing higher after 2:15 would be free to extend higher, aggressively, targeting 2187.00-2188.00.
Back under 2179.75 would start to signal the rally potential had failed. A higher sell signal would become calculable after probing fresh highs. Regardless, triggering a sell signal could easily target 2171.50, but not so easily target fresh post open lows.