Mid-day Update

Earlier optimism wasn’t very contagious.

The opening 15 minutes of volatility had trended up to 2162.00, maintaining a gap up above yesterday’s highs. That enabled trending higher today before the last 60-90 minutes. But trending higher wasn’t required.

A drop back down to 2154.00 had put into play a test of 2150.50. It could have been invalidated back above 2159.00 by 10:30, or above 2162.00 by 11:30-noon. Neither condition was met, so the test of 2150.50 becomes “unfinished business below” that requires being retested eventually — probably along the way to retesting Tuesday morning’s oversold RSIs at 2141.50.

Meanwhile, the noon hour briefly touched 2163.50 before dipping back down to 2158.00. Neither of the 2157.50-2165.25 bias signals was touched, so this is a no-bias environment. Trending beyond either signal could resume as the bias environment begins lapsing would be free to trend.

Thursday afternoons prior to Friday morning’s Employment Situation report can become paralyzed by anxiousness.That may define this afternoon’s price action. But back above 2161.25 and 2164.00 would be vulnerable to trend higher.

Higher and higher highs, but lacking velocity.

The morning’s high touched its 2155.50 bias-up signal. Being a no-bias environment, it was required to define the range’s upper-end. Coming after 10:30, nothing was required of Its reaction. And it did nothing, holding 2151.25 as support.

Similarly, the afternoon bias environment 2156.25 bias-up signal has been touched. Nothing is required of its reaction, either. But back under 2153.00 and 2151.00 would be likely to attack or test 2148.00. Below there would still target yesterday’s 2141.50 low.

The downleg signaled at Monday’s open is a little off-track. Probing lower this morning and then recovering this afternoon was likely. Not probing lower this morning doesn’t prevent this afternoon from rallying anyway, it’s just less likely.

Extended decline is neutralizing many attractions.

Prior to today, the only required downside was a retest of Thursday’s 2153.50 low. The next lower objective under it was 2147.00-2148.00 This morning’s bias environment tested 2145.00, and the noon hour’s exit touched 2141.50.

The last two lows weren’t required to be tested. But selling pressure has been expended to test them, anyway. A clue to sellers becoming expended is this afternoon’s bias-down that was invalidated — triggering its 2143.50 signal by only 1 tick, and recovering back above it through 1:30.

Exiting the bias environment back above 2147.00-2148.00 would suggest that selling pressure is satisfied. Back above 2151.25 would start signaling momentum is reversing up. Meanwhile, the trend remains down, and fresh lows would next target the 2137.00 area.

Overnight range isolated. Now morning bounce is, too.

Having exited the 2167.50 open exclusively within Friday’s range, sellers had successfully isolated the overnight highs. Plunging to 2162.25 was retraced to test Friday morning’s 2171.75 prior high as resistance. Holding its test would maintain that isolation of any probe above it.

So when the bias environment lapsed at 2171.75, another plunge fell to fresh session lows testing 2160.00.

The afternoon’s bias environment just triggered noN-bias. Not no-bias, and not bias-down. The 2164.000 bias-down signal was still being overlapped both at 1:20 and also at 1:30. Bouncing any higher would target at least 2167.00, or higher, without limitation.

Back under 2162.00 would resume the decline, essentially targeting a probe under Thursday’s 2153.50 low. And likely to extend down much deeper Tuesady into Wednesday’s open.

Fresh intraday highs, with the wrong sponsorship.

This morning’s bias environment tested the 2169.00 bias-up signal. The noon hour was entered above it. Invalidating the late bias-down signal is complete.

The signal was already suspect for still being within 1 tick of 2160.75 at 10:30. Suspicions grew by quickly recovering 2160.75, and were confirmed by extending relentlessly to a fresh high above 2165.00. Recovering the offsetting signal before fully exiting the bias environment makes it official.

Higher highs during the noon hour touched 2171.75. That stopped 3 ticks pessimistically short of the prior overnight high, so already reacting down is suspicious. An inflection point at 2166.75 has been holding, and the dip was isolated to the noon hour. The 2164.00 bias-down signal is still 3-4 points lower.

Overbought RSIs at the high don’t require a retest, but back above 2169.25 would target fresh highs anyway. Fresh highs are still vulnerable to failure this afternoon.