Mid-day Update

Shallow pullback’s expiration approaching.

Today’s likelihood for a shallow pullback has been validated, so far. There’s still room for a slightly lower intraday low down to 2080.50, but it’s not necessary. This afternoon’s 2084.25 bias-down signal was attacked to within 3 ticks before triggering no-bias.

No-bias makes price action likely to be contained between its bias signals. Trending beyond either signal is unlikely. But “trending” from one signal to the other is possible. It may even be likely — especially if the shallow pullback intends to resolve today.

I would prefer buying another attack on session lows, if that opportunity presents itself. Otherwise, firming back toward session highs would become well-positioned to break higher when the bias environment begins lapsing less than an hour from now.

Breaking under 2084.25 would extend the delay into a detour, probably targeting 10 points lower. Ultimately, that would still likely be bullish, stretching the rubber band to snap back up into the three-day weekend.

The morning’s warning might also apply this afternoon.

Three of the first hour’s five 15-minute checkpoints overlapped the same relevant level, being Friday’s 2049.00 cash session closing equivalent. That suggested sponsorship was lacking, and that choppy ranging would be likelier than trending.

The dry cleaners morning only narrowed its range. Only after the bias environment began lapsing at 11:30 was trending attempted again. The reaction down from 2051.25 did pierce the morning’s low by 3 ticks down to 2045.75. But it hasn’t extended.

Fresh lows remain likely to test Thursday’s lower prior highs at or under 2039.50. At least a retest of overnight highs could be signaled above 2050.50. But there’s no requirement for either, so a dry cleaners afternoon can’t be discounted.

Upside potential met, and corrected, in time for bullish bias.

Yesterday afternoon’s rally had not gained traction for its efforts. Extending it this morning required gapping up above a relevant prior high at 2046.50.

Eventually, the 2055.00-2056.00 renewed bias-up target was met (all but 1 tick of it).

None of which has anything to do with the bullish WedEX, which begins its influence at the 1:20 bias timing window. Inverting it now is very unlikely, essentially requiring that a new accumulative pattern be triggered, its target met, and its signal retraced.

Barely enough time remains for dipping to 2048.00 or 2046.00 before a bullish bias takes over. Being vulnerable to a dip doesn’t require it. And back above 2054.25 would suggest it’s not coming.

Ranging around the next lower objective. And ranging.

Any post-open bounce this morning was likely to be only temporary, before resolving down to 2025.00-2027.00. The post-open bounce to 2039.50 had resolved won aggressively to fulfill the objective.

It was probed down to 2024.00, and later extended down to 2022.00. But that was well before the noon hour, and price action since then has only ranged choppily sideways.

The noon hour ignored an opportunity to bounce and to compartmentalize this morning’s decline. Resuming the decline could extend through the next lower objective in the 2018.00 area to probe under 2000.00.

A bounce to 2033.75-2035.00 is still possible. But nothing yet suggests that wouldn’t just refuel sellers again like this morning.

Bias-up signaled, target met. News dead ahead.

Trending ahead of an FOMC event? It’s just the Minutes, but still.

The morning’s 2050.50 bias-up signal’s test defined the bias environment’s upper-end. Its reaction down to 2044.50 was recovered back to the morning’s 2052.00 high. Which was retested again as the noon hour ended.

This time it was probed, triggering the afternoon’s 2052.50 bias-up signal. Its 2057.75 bias-up target was just touched.

That last upleg is odd, developing just an hour before the 2:00pm FOMC Minutes. Probing above this morning’s high was unlikely, so triggering bias-up is less likely.

The bias-up target’s attraction is now neutralized. Yesterday afternoon’s plunge has been retraced entirely. It’s not actually rejected, so the recovery is still vulnerable to reacting negatively to the FOMC event, especially greeting the news from under 2055.00.