Mid-day Update

Next higher objective met.

Consolidating around this morning’s 2695.00 bias-up target tried reversing down, after a violated pullback limit tried resolving up too quickly. Both attempts failed. The rally resumed finally at the bias environment exit.

The next leg extended to 2708.00, slicing through the rally’s 2701.00 next higher target at noon. Price action since then has fallen back down to attack 2695.00.

Today’s upside momentum may have lapsed. Downside momentum hasn’t necessarily taken its place. Which might seem an odd conclusion, since this afternoon’s 2699.25 bias-down just triggered — albeit late. Sellers still get a benefit of the doubt, especially if the bias environment lapses under its 2699.25 bias-down signal or 2691.25 bias-down target.

Regardless, closing above 2701.00 would put into play the rally’s next objective at 2756.00. Only closing back under yesterday’s 2690.00 high would start to signal momentum reversing down more substantially.

Strong rally ahead of FOMC.

The post-open dip down to this morning’s 2647.00 bias-up signal held to maintain the bias-up, quickly extending back up to and through the 2653.00 bias-up target. Well through it. To and through last Friday’s 2660.00 “higher prior lows” and up to 2667.00.

That’s pretty optimistic ahead of an FOMC policy statement and Fed chair Q&A. Reacting down through the noon hour’s exit is testing 2657.00, and reintroducing some pessimism. A favorable reaction to the news won’t be as difficult.

A favorable reaction to the news also isn’t required to be maintained. A favorable reaction isn’t required at all. But closing above 2666.00 would start requiring the rally to resume. And having probed 2666.00 intraday, closing back under 2656.00 would suggest the bounce is done.

Bouncing back into resistance.

Recovering from this morning’s 2628.50 low extended to 2643.50 as the noon hour began. Its reaction down was contained to 2637.50. When this afternoon’s trending mattered most, price action was fluctuating around yesterday’s close / today’s open of 2642.75. And testing this afternoon’s 2640.75 bias-up signal at both 1:20 and 1:30 has triggered noN-bias.

Not a bias-up targeting this morning’s highs, but no requirement not to try. And nothing preventing another downdraft.

Back above 2642.50 would start to signal a rally attempt underway. Back under 2632.50 would instead signal another downdraft underway targeting a retest of the low’s oversold RSIs. If extended to 2625.00, then collapsing through an air pocket below would be likely. Meanwhile, post-close earnings due from AAPL may inhibit attempts at either.

Last week’s lows hold a test, for now.

A bounce had become likely last week, after holding several tests of “lower prior highs” at 2625.00 through relevant timing windows. The bounce was not arbitrary, having neutralized attractions above. So, there is no bullish reason to revisit 2625.00.

And having chipped away so thoroughly at 2625.00, any bounce produced by its retest should be only obligatory. Actually, having chipped away so thoroughly at 2625.00, any bounce should be unlikely. But its test has reacted up to 2637.50.

The 2625.00 test wasn’t arbitrary. It bottomed upon testing this afternoon’s 2622.75 bias-down signal. Triggering bias-up would have been bullish, but only noN-bias triggered by still testing the 2633.75 bias-up signal both at 1:20 and 1:30. Its resistance doesn’t require holding, and its bias-up target doesn’t require being met.

Not yet leveraging this retest of 2625.00 into a new downleg today would undermine sellers greatly. A probe back into Friday’s range would become very likely. Back under 2633.00 would start to signal another attempt underway.

Resistance holds, but not rejected.

Opening above 2656.00 and extending up to 2666.00 didn’t satisfy buyers. This morning’s rally extended to fill the gap back up to last Friday’s ~2671.00 close. Its reaction down to 2663.00 was recovered to pierce the morning’s high up to 2672.50 during the noon hour.

That was also this afternoon’s bias-up target. And it reacted down through the 2669.75 bias-up signal to attack 2660.00. During the morning bias, this set would have put into play offsetting tests of BOTH bias-down parameters. Not necessarily during the afternoon.

The potential just diminished for simply gravitating higher through the close. That requires exiting the bias environment at fresh session highs, which is difficult during a no-bias environment. That said, greeting the bias environment exit at its 2669.75 bias-up signal and immediately breaking higher would be credible. Otherwise, flat-to-lower through the afternoon is likelier.