Mid-day Update

No-bias trending to new highs.

This morning’s 2023.00 bias-up signal held its test into the bias environment lapsing. Probing higher during the noon hour up to to 2031.00 tested the overnight high’s “new Globex trend extreme” and this afternoon’s 2028.50 bias-up signal. Dipping into the bbias environment’s exit avoided triggering bias up.

Dipping also held a sell signal under 2027.00. And despite not triggering, the 2028.50bias-up signal is being probed. Up to 2033.50, probing this afternoon’s bias-up signal by 1 point.

Being a no-bias environment, this is “no-bias trending” that is doomed to failure. Retesting the 2028.50 bias-up signal as support is required, if not also down to the 2027.00 level being tested when the bias signal triggered at 1:20. Meanwhile, yesterday’s buyers didn’t gain traction for their efforts, which also undermines resuming the rally so quickly.

Extending higher is possible. But a bullish WedEX bias would be difficult without first correcting today’s excess.

Fresh post-open highs are suspicious.

It would seem to be 100% in-line with pre-open expectations. Gapping down through the 1998.50 bias-down target was half the battle. Extending through it or reacting up from it was the other half. And without extending through it, trapped shorts would be squeezed to fuel a recovery.

Bias-down was recovered in time to avoid renewing bias-down. But it was not recovered enough to reverse momentum up. Although sellers aren’t in control, a fresh low at 1993.50 became likely so that its recovery could fuel the recovery.

But no fresh low came before bouncing, first to 2002.75 and then to this morning’s 2004.00 bias-down signal. Now it’s also this afternoon’s bias-up signal.

The bouncing is premature. It’s sponsored by weak hands. It leaves the door open to fresh session lows. Probing above 2004.00 at the bias environment exit could extend anyway.

Morning’s chop still hasn’t resolved.

While gapping down helped to reject Friday’s late probe above key resistance, momentum hasn’t reversed down. Wide swings have failed to gain traction.

The morning’s bias environment has lapsed but its range persists. This doesn’t often follow a subdued overnight range. But it does make the first trending attempt out of this morning’s range likely to fail.

The tight range makes price levels less relevant than timing — less relevant but still relevant. Exiting the noon hour above Friday’s 2012.00 cash session close or any probed resistance would be the best opportunity to rally at all. Otherwise, entering the afternoon’s bias environment back under 1-2 probed resistance levels would start signaling a deeper pullback coming.

Late extension probes higher, on weak sponsorship.

Gapping up to 1997.00-1999.50 wasn’t threatened through the first half of the fist 15 minutes of volatility, making fresh highs likely. Fresh highs weren’t probed much beyond 2001.00 during the first 15 or 30 minutes, making a pullback likely to refuel buyers for fresh highs at 2004.25-2005.00.

Dipping to 1996.00 stretched the rubber band enough. Snapping back up probed new recovery highs up to 2005.25. Its reaction down barely touched the open’s range before extending higher to 2008.00. Hovering there before the bias environment exit has persisted into the noon hour’s entry, now piercing fresh highs at 2009.00.

Friday morning bias can persist through the noon hour, possibly extending although not necessarily, at least preventing a durable reversal. But the timing origin of finally breaking higher does keep the afternoon vulnerable to reversing back down.

Already probing under yesterday’s lows.

Holding a test of yesterday morning’s bias-up signal had put into play an offsetting test of its 1968.00 bias-down signal. Attacking it to within 1 point didn’t neutralize its attraction, which became “unfinished business below.”

Rallying up to 2001.00 doesn’t negate the attraction below, which was tested this morning down to 1964.50.

Topping template intact? I think so.

Meanwhile, “no-bias trending” under this morning’s 1981.75 bias-up signal must be retested. Often, that will also visit the 10:15 print, which this morning happens to be 1990.00.

Back under 1966.75 again would suggest a much deeper and much longer delay to retesting 1981.75.