Mid-day Update

Noon hour bounce trying to position for afternoon surge.

This morning’s 1980.25 low fulfilled the pattern’s structural requirement for a fresh low triggered under 1989.00. That was short of its potential, but exiting the bias environment above a prior high could still trap shorts.

The bias environment wasn’t entered above a prior high. Not when it began lapsing and not by noon.

The noon hour has rallied. It fulfilled a 1997.00 target that was triggered above 1990.25. But the 1996.00 bias-up signal ultimately avoided triggering.Now a dip to 1992.00 is trying to regain its footing.

Fresh highs above 1998.00 would suggest the decline is done for now. But triggering any buy signal during a no-bias environment is suspicious and unreliable. Hovering up here for a half-hour and THEN surging would be more credible for extending higher.

Alternatively, back under 1990.25 would start to signal the recovery is done. Structurally, it could be satisfied by only a fresh low. But defending against fresh lows is difficulty while exiting the bias environment, which would be the likely timing.

Market Wrap starts half-hour early at 3:33pm ET.

Also, I’m away from screens between 12:35 – 1:45 ET.

This morning’s 2061.50 bias-down target has held its test. But its test has not been rejected. The morning’s bias environment did react up to 2066.50, still 1 point short of the bounce preceding 2061.50.

But no higher. And no lower.

Exiting the bias environment in rally mode would have reversed momentum up. That didn’t happen, so entering the noon hour above the open’s 2068.00 highs would have made fresh highs likely. Didn’t happen either, so exiting  the noon hour above 2070.50 would be optimal for confirming the uptrend has resumed.

There’s otherwise no requirement to trend down — only the greater vulnerability so long as yesterday afternoon’s upside traction isn’t being influential.

Bias-up sets stage for yet another session surge.

Not just another upleg, but another surge. There were two overnight and one at the open up to 2069.00. Backing-and-filling down to 2064.00 has resolved up to 2070.00. This afternoon’s 2067.25 bias-up signal was triggered along the way.

The bias-up target isn’t much higher, around 2071.00. But the late break to fresh session highs suggests that sellers are being patient — and that’s strong-handed. Plunging 5-1/2 points before the noon hour is aggressive and impatient — and weak-handed.

Regardless of the potential upside, price action is still ranging around the opening surge’s 2069.00 peak. Breaking free of it won’t be easy, but it should be rewarded by a surge to fresh highs. Back under 2066.00 would suggest momentum is reversing down instead.

Were morning’s buyers a little slow on the uptake?

This morning’s drop came within 1 point of its next lower objective at 2034.25. Both 1-minute and 3-minute RSIs improved into the low, so that might be sufficient for a bottom to form after this morning’s recovery attempt failed.

So far, a bounce has attacked 2043.00. Much higher much later could trigger this afternoon’s bias-up signal. That would trap the overnight extreme sentiment and the morning’s extension. The pre-open bounce would extend back to last week’s highs.

That bullish path isn’t at all assured or required. In fact, this morning’s one credible rally setup was attempted and rejected. There is no “unfinished business below” outstanding, so buyers aren’t marginalized.

But sellers certainly aren’t marginalized, either. A fresh session high above 2047.00 is needed to reverse the trend up. Until then, the decline is vulnerable to resuming. And having stopped short of it 2034.25 objective, potential to 2032.00 is a likelier attraction.

Post-open slide’s recovery is probing higher.

The pre-open premature break up to 2024.00 had become a false break. Occurring just 15 minutes prior to the open instead of at the open made all the difference between attracting new sponsorship or repelling it. The reaction fell to 2011.00.

But the 2015.00 bias-down signal avoided triggering, and the balance of the bias environment firmed to attack its bias-up target to within 1 tick at 2022.00. The noon hour firmed to probe a fresh high at 2025.00.

That’s quite a bit above the 2006.00-2007.00 line in the sand which would reinstate the attraction back to Friday’s 1991.00 low. And it’s already quite a bit closer to the 2027.00 potential upside.

Getting too far ahead of the seasonal holiday bullishness too early? A preemptive dip to test 2017.50 would help to preserve the upward trending.

Otherwise, the risk is stretching the rubber band, either to surge through the range’s 2027.00 upper-end, or else inverting back down to the range’s 2006.00-2007.00 lower-end.