Mid-day Update

Bias objective met. Seasonal objective in-play.

With two path higher, the market took the one more difficult. Testing this morning’s 2084.50 bias-down signal by 3 points, and invoking the grace period, ultimately held. Its offsetting test of the 2090.00 bias-up signal was met before the bias environment began lapsing. It has been probed by 5 ticks.

Historically, trending tends to persist into the post-Thanksgiving close. Not aggressively, but simply gravitating in its prevailing direction. So, there is potential for extending the recovery through 2091.00 to 2094.00 or higher.

But extending higher isn’t required. Reacting back down isn’t likely, but it’s possible. I’ll continue tracking pullback limits in the chaRTroom. There is no afternoon bias parameter to apply today.

Opening dip’s recovery hasn’t reversed up.

The open’s slide down to 2082.25 had reacted up to range around the 2088.00 bias-up signal. It didn’t trigger, not even late. A surge up to 2090.50  was retraced back down into the range around 2088.00.

The morning’s vulnerability to trending back down lapsed with the bias environment. Having hovered at session highs until then, the noon hour became vulnerable to drifting higher on evaporating volume.

But the noon hour only ranged narrowly sideways, at or under the morning’s high.

So, the shoe is now back on the pendulum, which has swung back toward the other foot. The primary influence continues to be evaporating volume. This range’s upper-end continues to hold. Will 2088.00 refuse to let sellers retake control?

No trending is required. That said, be careful if short at or into highs, as evaporating volume can be unpredictable. But the balance of the session is now vulnerable to drifting downward.

The dive was exacerbated, but its recovery is a little much.

I’ve reiterated several reasons why the overnight plunge was exacerbated. Not that it couldn’t extend deeper intraday — today is the last day for correcting the recovery before holiday bullishness appears. But regardless of its depth or duration, today’s sellers would be trapped.

Already, that seems to be obvious. A little too obvious, a little too quickly.

After rejecting the open’s rally from 2078.50 back down to 2067.00, the minimum requirement for suggesting sellers were done was to exiting the bias environment above 2072.50. The bias environment began lapsing at 2077.00.

Then, the minimum requirement to keep price action trading flat-to-lower was to hold 2080.50 as resistance.  The noon hour was entered at 2082.50. This brings the session back to unchanged.

Regardless of its current upward momentum, rallying this afternoon still seems very premature. Back under 2080.50 would start to signal a dip back down to 2074.75 or 2072.50. Bias-up above 2082.50 at 1:20 would nevertheless get every benefit of the doubt.

It’s not expiration-related, so it’s not easily ended.

This morning’s surge to 2093.00 never extended higher. And it seemed like forever before probing back under its 2089.00 sell signal. Equally long was the time that elapsed before probing under 2089.00 actually broke lower.

In fact, this afternoon’s 2088.00 bias-down signal didn’t trigger at 1:20, triggering no-bias. Neither was it broken by 1:30 to invalidate the no-bias. So, plunging under it now to 2081.25 is “no-bias trending” that requires being retraced eventually to at least 2088.00.

Will that retest come soon? Sellers have an excuse to pause — they just fulfilled this morning’s unfinished business at 2082.50, and oversold RSIs at the 2081.25 low will doom a bounce to failure. Back above 2084.50 would start to signal that bounce underway. There’s otherwise nothing preventing a slide into the top of the hour.

Already extended ahead of FOMC Minutes.

The 2055.00 bias-up signal’s 2061.50 target was met on the way to probe above yesterday’s 2065.25 high. Its reaction down is now testing 2061.50 as support.

There remains potential for also testing 2068.00. The objective need not be met, but the character of its test would be relevant.

This afternoon’s FOMC Minutes is an obstacle to extending higher. New sponsorship is inhibited before its 2:00 release. So, testing 2068.00 before or after could produce a durable reaction down.

Avoiding fresh highs altogether is also possible. Back under 2060.00 and 2057.00 would start to suggest either no favorable reaction to FOMC, or only a momentary knee-jerk reaction up.