Mid-day Update

Still hovering at the open’s highs.

This afternoon’s 2670.75 bias-up signal was touched in time to invoke the grace period, and then touched in time again to avoid triggering. This is a noN-bias environment. Not bias-up with a target in-play. And not no-bias likely to hold resistance.

Meanwhile, the open’s surge to 2624.00 has yet to improve. A quick pullback had recovered to touch it, and a later recovery attacked it. Its retest would be likely to break higher, but no retest is required.

So, just hovering vulnerable to reversing the trend down.Now exiting the afternoon bias environment in rally mode would be credible for extending higher. A second consecutive higher close would confirm yesterday’s breakout.

Fresh highs retesting the rally’s target.

The open’s surge to 2606.00 had reacted down to test 2593.00. That reaction down overlapped the morning’s 2595.75 bias-up target at 10:15 to avoid renewing the bias-up signal. It was still a bias-up environment, but that was also a pretty significant reversal. Reinforcements were inhibited, and the balance of the morning ranged sideways.

Extending higher into the noon hour probed fresh highs attacking 1614.00. Its reaction down to 2605.00 was still overlapping this afternoon’s 2608.50 bias-up signal at 1:20. And it was still being overlapped at 1:30. This is a noN-bias environment — no requirement for the bias-up signal to hold its test, and no requirement for its 2615.50 bias-up target to be met.

Back above 2611.50 would signal that upside momentum had resumed, presumably to test the 2615.50 bias-up target anyway. Potentially, there is also room for noise above 2606.00 up to 2626.00 before beginning to suggest that 2656.00 may come into play. Back under 2601.50 would signal another attempt to reject today’s test of 2606.00.

Fluctuating back up to the morning’s high.

This morning’s 2588.75 high was also a buy signal, which was only touched and not triggered. Its resistance reacted back down to 2577.50 before the bias environment lapsed. The noon hour’s entry quickly recovered 2588.75, and the noon hour’s exit is still fluctuating around it.

But now 2588.75 is this afternoon’s bias-up signal. And it held as resistance through 1:30 after invoking the grace period, triggering a late no-bias environment. Resistance is likely to hold, but recovering 2590.50 would be credible for extending higher anyway. It would be “no-bias trending” and require being retraced, unless the signal were delayed until the bias environment had begun lapsing.

Meanwhile, back under 2585.25 would start to signal a deeper dip with potential down to this afternoon’s 2576.00 bias-down signal.

Early sellers failed, and now also so have buyers.

Fridays are difficult to start trending, and difficult to stop trending once it starts. Trending attempts must start early, and early attempts that fail tend to be the session’s last opportunity to trend in that direction.

Today’s gap down to 2584.00 probed lower to 2577.00, bouncing to 2585.00 and 2588.00 resistance — yesterday’s last relative low and this morning’s bias-down signal, respectively. Both were still being tested as the bias environment lapsed. Still being tested, not already recovered.

Which leaves the door open for another downleg.

Recovering through the noon hour touched 2596.00, within 3 ticks of yesterday’s cash session close. Its recovery could be firming and rallying through the afternoon. Except that its reaction failed to trigger the 2594.50 bias-up signal.

The 2586.50 bias-down signal was tested, but too late to invalidate the afternoon’s no-bias. The pattern will remain vulnerable to extending down, unless the bias environment probes positive territory.

Recovery fills gap, and higher.

The overnight drop was rejected through the open. The morning’s rally didn’t reject it, either. Now the afternoon offers one more chance to reinstate the rally’s upside momentum.

This morning’s 2590.75 bias-down signal was tested this morning, but not recovered in time to invalidate the bias-down rally. So its 2579.00 bias-down signal required a retest for having probed above it during a bias-down environment. That’s now done.

2579.00 was tested by several points, but held this afternoon’s 2577.00 bias-down signal to signal late no-bias. That hasn’t prevented probing under it to 2573.50, which is no-bias trending that requires being retraced. Extending under 2573.50 would start signaling that attractions above were being ignored by a bigger downleg. Otherwise, back above 2579.00 would start to signal the recovery is trying again.

The open missed an opportunity to isolate the overnight dip under yesterday’s lows. This morning missed the opportunity to reject the open’s gap under yesterday’s lows. Not exploiting the failed isolation and rejection setups would give one more opening to a recovery, and to resuming the rally.