Mid-day Update

Target met and held at the low. So far.

This morning’s test of 1989.00 was exceeded only by 3 ticks. Just attacking it to within 3 ticks would have sufficed. Its reaction up through the noon hour reached 1914.00. Such strong hands must be secure in their bullishness.

Or, was that just a knee-jerk reaction to fulfilling so much selling pressure so quickly? The probe above this afternoon’s 1910.75 bias-up signal avoided triggering. And its reaction down has tested 1902.00.

So long as the next lower objective is contained within the first available timing window, new sponsorship is difficult to attract. That increases the potential for a bottom to form. So, breaking under 1918.00 through a relevant timing window put into play 1898.00, and both conditions were triggered and met this morning.

None of which says the drop has bottomed or that the trend has reversed up. But the first rule of getting out of a hole is to stop digging. So, there’s that.

No Island, but a lot of traversing.

Having touched the 1938.25 bias-up signal, back under 1937.00 and 1935.00 reversed momentum down. The morning’s 1924.00 bias-down signal wasn’t yet touched when the bias environment began lapsing at 11:30, so its eventual test wasn’t required to hold. Its test has extended down to 1921.75.

Not rallying quickly at the open meant today was likely to back-and-fill into yesterday’s range. Its lower prior highs have been tested (they’re still being tested). There’s no lower objective, but breaking lower now would be likely to probe under yesterday’s low.

Otherwise, this being the range’s lower-end, bouncing back to or toward yesterday’s highs is now likely.

Attraction below, repellent above.

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The bias environment’s 16-point slide down to 1920.50 has been retraced by 61.8% up to 1930.00. That’s the noon hour’s high, so far. That bounce peaked early in the noon hour, reacting down since then to 1924.00, so 1930.00 is the noon hour’s high, probably.

I’m making a big deal about 1930.00 being — or, not being — the noon hour’s high, because it might determine probing fresh session lows today. Just attacking the noon hour high above 1928.75 would start to target 1931.50, this afternoon’s bias-up signal. Triggering it could marginalize sellers for the delay.

Regardless, the pattern since this morning’s low is not accumulative. So, any rally it might launch would be likely to fail. Extending down this afternoon to fulfill the 1918.00 objective could at least coincide with the end of artificial pre-Yom Kippur selling pressure. Bouncing, first, would be equally suspicious.

Bullish WedEX lapses in a big way.

The overnight rally to 1964.25 was substantial, but nothing pre-open could be attributed to the potential bullish WedEX signal. Post-open action did probe the overnight high, and Friday morning’s high, eventually trending steeply to 1969.00. That fulfilled the bullish WedEX.

WedEX applies only to Friday afternoon and Monday morning — nothing before, and nothing after. The latter part was made obvious by a plunge at 11:30 that probed fresh post-open lows. In fact, natural support at Friday’s 1946.00 cash session close is being filled now (down to 1944.25).

What caused the about-face — Russia just announcing an unexploded shell landed in its Damascus embassy Sunday, or simply Europe’s closing and the USD dipping? Whatever, it’s too late for rejecting it through the noon hour’s exit, so a bottoming effort is needed before a buy signal can be identified.

Is it trending, or just a very wide range?

This morning’s bias environment trended up throughout. It’s difficult enough to generate trending windows on expiration or on Fridays in general. Much more difficult is to reverse them.

So, returning back down to 1950.50 might seem bearish, after its test this morning had rallied to 1967.50. Maybe it’s just noise within a wide price range, and also within the pessimism from yesterday’s action bleeding into an overnight slide that resumed before the open.

Remember that expiration sessions often range sideways. Also, bullish WedEX afternoons often range flat-to-higher.

There’s also a lot of room just for noise. But I’m equally interested in longs. And rallying into today’s close could be very bullish for Monday. That’s not to dismiss the downside vulnerability. There is significant downside vulnerability, making it worth getting whipsawed out of shorts to be exposed in case the bottom drops out.