Mid-day Update

Probing Monday’s highs. Again.

This morning’s 2493.00 bias-down signal triggered late, but retested its bias-down target anyway. Bias-down didn’t prevent a bias-down rally — probing above the bias-down signal during a bias-down environment. Monday’s ~2510.00 highs were retested up to 2512.00.

But a required retracement back to 2493.00 remained outstanding. The noon hour’s dip came within 6 ticks, which is close, but its test remains outstanding. Meanwhile, another rally leg has triggered this afternoon’s 2513.25 bias-up.

So, there are competing attractions. The afternoon’s 2521.25 bias-up target is more influential, more so than to actually test this morning’s 2493.00 bias-down signal. And fresh highs may yet extend higher to 2525.25, where we would consider whether a more substantial rally leg is underway.

Morning dip is retraced.

I had noted this morning that perhaps the most bullish development was probing under the 2495.50 bias-up signal when it was too late for sellers to gain traction for their effort. Trending was already going to be difficult. Not only for being a bias-up environment, although its bias-up target had been met, but also because the open had spent so much time overlapping the target.

Probing under 2495.50 to 2482.75 filled the gap back down to Friday’s close, neutralizing its attraction. And the reward to patient buyers for absorbing the dip is this afternoon’s 2502.50 bias-up signal putting into play its 2510.00 bias-up target — already being met to within 3 ticks so it won’t become “unfinished business” in case of reversing down.

Sellers aren’t marginalized. All of today’s price action has developed within Friday’s last leg. Buyers have gained traction for their efforts by triggering bias-up, but their target is already met. And it’s only an inside day. Extending higher would have potential for trending to 2525.25. But exiting the bias environment in decline could still trend down through the close.

PROGRAMMING NOTE: I AM AWAY FROM THE SCREENS UNTIL THE FINAL HOUR.

The overnight slide from 2481.50 down to 2422.50 was probed by another 10 points down to 2412.50. That was during the open, which had initially tried rallying through 2445.00. The dip to 2412.50 was recovered to attack 2445.00, and its retest has reacted down again.

Now this afternoon’s 2423.00 bias-down signal has triggered late, targeting 2412.75. Any lower would next target 2406.00, and under 2403.00 would target 2496.00. It’s a series of dominoes that leads either to ending a correction of yesterday’s rally, or else to its complete retracement (probably).

Meanwhile, about that first domino…

All of the overlapping legs from this morning and through the noon hour have formed a circular argument of false starts. The bias environment exit’s last surge back up to 2445.00 should be the last rally effort, so the decline should be coming shortly. But delaying it through the afternoon bias environment could resolve up out of relief.

lede .

This morning’s no-bias environment had triggered after the open’s surge to 2387.00 failed to hold both of the 2361.00-2372.50 bias-up parameters through 10:15. The morning’s low at 2345.50 was the second test of Monday’s 2351.00 low. Neither test broke any lower or for any longer. The offsetting tests of both bias-down parameters wasn’t fulfilled.

This morning’s offsetting tests of both bias-down parameters was rendered moot, anyway, by exiting the bias environment above its bias-up target. It wasn’t a clean exit, lasting from 11:30-noon. And the open’s high wasn’t recovered until the final possible minutes. So, I’m not convinced the upside if durable.

Durable or not, the upside has been strong. The noon hour’s 2415.00 high reacted down to 2394.00, and triggered late bias-up 2 points higher. Having already met the 2409.00 bias-up target, sell signals would be credible if triggered. The bias-up target is being retested now.

Back under 2396.00 would offer one more chance to reverse the trend back down, whether into this morning’s lows or lower. Extending higher would have no particular target at this time.

The market is behaving quite anxiously.

Optimism seems to have been sucked entirely out of the market. The post-open surge had stretched the rubber band, only to snap back down. Hard. The morning’s 48-point drop from 2508.00 to 2460.50 was retraced by 38.2% up to 2480.50. Its reaction fell 45 points to the noon hour’s 2435.25 low. A 61.8% bounce attacking 2460.00 has dipped back down to hover at 2442.00.

Exceeding this afternoon’s bias-down target through 1:20 has renewed the bias-down signal, effectively targeting 2432.25. Also, the bearish WedEX influence has begun.

Currently, the 2460.00 bounce’s reaction down to 2442.00 has grown eerily silent. Again. Stability at this stage of this pattern is not to be confused as strength. A fresh afternoon high could rally again, but there’s nothing accumulative about the pattern.