Mid-day Update

Does the market care? It’s range is being probed anyway.

Sloshing around through the open bled into the bias environment, triggering bias-down and repeatedly attacking its 2935.00 bias-down target. The target expanded to 2933.00-2934.00, with plenty of time for its test to be recovered before marginalizing buyers for the day. In fact, its test plunged to 2926.00, and still recovered in time to avoid marginalizing buyers.

Meanwhile, simultaneously oversold 1-minute and 3-minute RSIs left outstanding at the 2926.00 low require an eventual retest. That didn’t prevent extending the bounce to fresh post-open highs testing the pre-open 2945.50 high. Which is “no-bias trending,” since the 2941.50 bias-up signal held its test through 1:20 to trigger no-bias. So, 2941.50 is likely to be retraced at or through the bias environment exit.

The balance of the session is vulnerable not so much to trending as it is to gravitating toward one end of the range or the other. Exiting the bias environment back within the 2935.00-2940.00 post-open range — especially under it — would likely extend down to the 2926.00 low. Leaving its attraction outstanding as “unfinished business” would make a retest of yesterday’s highs. likelier to reverse down.

Morning’s target neutralized, new target in-play.

Although triggered late, this morning’s bias-up signal was confirmed when the market printed a fresh high above its pre-10:15 high. Its 2950.50 bias-up target wasn’t met before this morning’s bias environment lapsed, so it became “unfinished business.” Attacking it to within 3 ticks during the noon hour neutralized it. It is no longer unfinished business.

Never mind that, this afternoon’s 2946.75 bias-up signal just triggered. Its 2954.25 bias-up target is in-play. A fresh high above 2950.00 would help to confirm.

Meanwhile, back under the bias-up signal through 1:30 could invalidate the bias-up and leave no unfinished business above. Probing lower any later would otherwise likely be only temporary, unless also rejecting the 2936.50 bias-down signal.

Sideways is a direction, too.

Especially on Fridays, a failed early trending attempt tends to marginalize its sponsorship. Sellers attacked the overnight range’s lower-end down to 2919.25 while testing the 2919.50 bias-down target as RSIs diverged positively. That alone would undermine sellers, but the 2924.50 bias-down signal also failed to trigger.

So, sellers are marginalized. The bias environment recovered up to 2934.75.

The noon hour was flat-to-lower, dipping 5 points. And now this afternoon has triggered no-bias. The next hour may range sideways, or flat-to-higher. There’s room up to the 2838.25 bias-up signal without requiring retracement back down.

Resuming the rally when the bias environment is lapsing would be entirely credible for extending higher into the weekend. It wouldn’t be required, drifting lower can’t be ruled out, but ranging sideways into the weekend is only slightly likelier.

Is the pullback done?

This morning’s break from the overnight sideways range made up for lost time. Sliding from its 2929.00 open extended through its bias-down signal to test its bias-down target down to 2919.25. All during the first 15 minutes.

Reacting up touched the morning’s 2927.75 bias-down signal as resistance, and then plunged again. Bias-down renewed, and the 2914.25 renewed bias-down target was touched at the low. All during the first hour.

Rallying almost straight up to noon touched 2935.00. That’s where the pre-open slide had originated, having held the last overnight bounce. And so far, 2935.00 has held this morning’s bounce, too.

Now this afternoon’s no-bias environment is holding the bounce. Extending higher anyway could have extended to test its 2938.25 bias-up signal without requiring any retracement. And now that the bias environment is lapsing, its resistance is diminished.

Nothing requires extending higher today, or at all, but not yet reversing down under 2930.00 is likely to extend higher today — if not also tomorrow morning.

But another upside attraction created.

This morning’s 2932.25 bias-down signal was tested down to 2931.00 and held, putting into play an offsetting test of the 2942.00 bias-up signal. But the recovery from 2931.00 peaked at  2939.50, so 2942.00 became “unfinished business.”

Add that to yesterday afternoon’s 2942.75 bias-up target that was left outstanding.

Now this afternoon’s 2930.25 bias-down signal has also held its test down to 2928.50. This puts into play an offsetting test of its 2942.75 bias-up signal. Currently, 2934.00 is being attacked.

Resuming yesterday morning’s surge has been delayed by yesterday afternoon’s ranging that persisted overnight. Backing-and-filling now is a little bit of overkill. It can still be productive, if resolved up today. But not yet recovering this afternoon would suggest a deeper pullback to find buyers.