Mid-day Update

Morning’s highs corrected, not reversed.

Holding tests of both bias-down parameters this morning put into play offsetting tests of both bias-up parameters. The path certainly was not direct, and it’s not complete, but the morning’s 2678.00 bias-up signal was probed by 1 point before the bias environment began lapsing. A test of its 2686.00 bias-up target remains outstanding.

2678.00 is this afternoon’s bias-up signal, too. The 2667.25 bias-down signal held its test to trigger late no-bias. So, 2678.00 should define the window’s upper-end if tested. It’s being attacked now to within 3 points.

Probing above the 2678.00 bias-up signal during the no-bias environment would require its retracement. Probing it to fulfill the 2686.00 objective could reverse the trend down. Before then, there’s room down to the 2662.00 area before suggesting momentum may be reversing down already.

Noon hour probes under open’s low.

Reacting down from the open’s 2671.75 high had met its 2662.75 objective. And bounced. But the bounce never probed higher, while lower and lower lows have probed fresh post-open lows down to 2652.50.

Backing-and-filling through the morning was likely, and unlikely to damage the recovery’s chart. Having held a test of the afternoon’s 2655.25 bias-down signal, a lower low could now damage the recovery’s chart. Meanwhile, the no-bias window has room up to its 2668.25 bias-up signal before signaling the recovery has resumed.

A recovery could still resume from a deeper pullback. Fresh lows still have room down to 2646.00 and 2639.50 before signaling the recovery failed, and that the decline is resuming.

Still testing yesterday’s highs.

This morning’s 2661.00 bias-up target had held 3 tests through 10:15 to avoid renewing the bias-up signal. Fresh highs were still likely to test what would have been its 2668.75 renewed bias-up signal. Which the bias environment exit did, up to 2671.25.

Similar to Fridays, the morning’s bias was likely to persist through the noon hour, ahead of tomorrow’s illiquidity. Reacting down into the noon hour only attacked this afternoon’s 2662.00 bias-down signal before triggering no-bias. The window’s 2671.50 bias-up signal can be tested.

Back under 2662.00 would still be credible for reversing momentum down, especially when the bias environment begins lapsing. Otherwise, fresh highs would next target 2677.75.

Morning recovery gets pushed back.

This morning’s 2633.75 low had tested the decline’s 2635.00 target, then reversed up through the decline’s 2654.00 prior target (also the opening print) to 2668.50. Quite a day, and that was only its first 90 minutes.

Reacting down to 2648.75 bounced to the noon hour’s fresh high at 2670.25, which reacted down even more deeply to 2643.25. Meanwhile, the afternoon’s bias-down triggered and its target was met.

Now one more bounce is testing the afternoon’s 2653.00 bias-down signal as resistance. Any higher would be “no-bias trending” that requires being retraced, unless the bias environment were exited above the 2666.00 bias-up signal.

Reversing up today depends greatly on the seasonal holiday bullishness influence appearing. Appearing, because pre-holiday selling pressures had depleted all available supply. If that can’t be converted to rally through the close, then the door remains open to resuming the decline.

Clinging to fresh lows.

The morning’s aggressively bearish influence persisted through the bias environment lapsing into the noon hour’s 2686.50 low. The drop from the 2731.25 open had tried bottoming once from 2706.50 before extending in another downleg.

Ranging relatively narrowly sideways since then is now entering the afternoon bias environment back at session lows. And testing this afternoon’s 2691.00 bias-down signal. Triggering the grace period at 1:20 has avoided resolving down, still overlapping the bias-down signal at 1:30 instead of triggering.

This is not a no-bias, whose lower-end should be defined by its bias-down signal. It’s also not a bias-down that should test its bias-down target.

However, its 2784.25 bias-down target was met anyway. And so far, it is holding. Having originated from a relatively narrow range, it’s easier to reject and recover the break, which would be signaled back above 2792.50 (being tested now). There’s otherwise no requirement to reverse or to extend.