Mid-day Update

Narrow choppy range behaving normally.

The open’s surge probed its 2915.25 bias-up signal by 2 points and still failed to trigger. It wasn’t even close, already probing 2 points under 2915.25 to trigger no-bias. And it was confirmed by a fresh post-10:15 low at 2910.00.

Which has been the session low. An offsetting test of this morning’s 2908.00 bias-down signal became “unfinished business.”

Now this afternoon’s no-bias has triggered, too. Its 2912.00 bias-down signal should define the window’s lower-end if tested. Probing it anyway — for example, down to 2908.00 — would be “no-bias trending” that requires being retraced. Probing it even deeper, to 2903.00 or lower, would still require retracing unless delayed until the bias window begins lapsing.

The narrow choppiness and unfinished business isn’t unusual for the low volume session. Trending up would be unusual, and no sell signal has triggered, but a probe of fresh highs is still possible.

PROGRAMMING NOTE: MARKET WRAP IS EARLY TODAY AT 3:21 ET.

This morning’s 2912.25 renewed bias-up target wasn’t triggered at 10:15, which had only held a test of the 2907.50 bias-up target. But 2907.50 was exceeded quickly, and it was still a bias-up environment. And 2912.25 was met as the bias environment started lapsing.

The rally extended into a noon surge that touched 2916.25. Coming within 3 ticks of last Friday’s pre-open “new Globex trend extreme” doesn’t neutralize its unfinished business,being a structural point and not calculable. The premature hesitation does reflect pessimism, or at least restrained optimism, in either case bullish from a contrarian perspective.

Now the afternoon has triggered no-bias, holding a test of its 2915.25 bias-up signal. Exiting the window under 2911.25 would start to signal a deeper pullback underway, perhaps only to test 2907.00. Rallying would likely probe 2920.00. Neither is very reliable with volume thinning ahead of Yom Kippur’s observance.

Another bias-down.

This morning’s 2907.00 bias-down signal triggered, and its 2900.25 bias-down target was probed by 1 point. Bouncing into the noon hour attacked 2906.00, but never recovered this morning’s bias-down signal. And now this afternoon’s 2901.50 bias-down signal has triggered.

Already, that has produced a fresh post-1:20 low, which essentially confirms the signal. Fresh lows are attacking its 2896.50 bias-down target to within 6 ticks.

None of which gets the rally any closer to resuming this afternoon, although the pullback still has room to test 2897.00 without even threatening to reverse the trend down. And then that threat could test 2887.00 before actually reversing down. But the rally is likelier to resume — sooner, rather than later — and doesn’t otherwise benefit from further backing-and-filling.

Trump tariff talk triggers tumble to target.

Opening at this morning’s 2912.25 bias-up signal didn’t recover it, and didn’t trigger it. An offsetting test of the morning’s 2903.25 bias-down signal was put into play. That didn’t stop bouncing back up to 2912.25, but its test defined the no-bias window’s upper-end.

Probing 2912.25 during the morning’s no-bias window would have required its retracement. Probing it after that wouldn’t have required its retracement, not directly, only indirectly while fulfilling “unfinished business” at 2903.25.

And maybe 2912.25 was going to be probed. We won’t know, because a trade war headline triggered a spike down that attacked the open’s 2909.50 low. Trending through it to 2902.00 has neutralized the unfinished business.

2903.25 is also this afternoon’s bias-down target. Its test has held, but the 2909.00 bias-down signal triggered cleanly. It’s still a bias-down environment that can extend lower. The window can also bounce back up to 2909.00, and higher after the bias window starts lapsing. The headline reaction can be retraced back up to its 2912.25 origin.

No-bias window, which will lapse.

This morning’s surge to 2012.00 was retraced ultimately back under the 2905.00 open down to 2901.75. The reversal’s likely objective was 2903.00, and every bar printing under it was also overlapping it. So, sellers never triggered a lower objective.

Rallying back into the noon hour quickly peaked within 1 tick of 2012.00. Flat-to-lower ranging since then has held the 2910.25 bias-up signal as resistance. The bias window is being entered at 2907.00, with room down to its 2905.50 bias-down signal.

Trending again today isn’t required, but I’d be a little surprised if the balance of the session only ranged into the close. There are quite a few multi-tick sentiment extremes (highlighted yellow in the chart), i.e. not singular errant ticks. Price action may be range-bound for now, but there seems to be an interest in trending.