Mid-day Update

No higher objectives outstanding.

Holding the test of this morning’s 2807.75 bias-down signal had put into play an offsetting test of 2816.00 bias-up signal. It was met soon after the bias environment began lapsing. Its test was likely also to visit the overnight highs, up to 2818.00. The noon hour’s entry quickly met 2818.00 and price has been drifting back down since then.

The 2816.75 bias-up signal held its test to signal no-bias. The balance of the bias environment has room down to the 2808.25 bias-down signal. Currently, 2814.00 is being attacked, which is either foreshadowing further weakness., or else posturing defensively ahead of the Beige Book release due at 2:00 ET.

Not gapping up from yesterday’s pattern made any probe higher likely to fail. So, resolving down this afternoon remains likely. Entering the final hour above 2816.75 would be likelier to extend higher anyway.

Still on the open’s buy signal.

Opening at 2791.00 ultimately held a test of this morning’s 2894.75 buy signal through 10:15. That put into play an offsetting test of this morning’s 2803.50 bias-up signal. The objective was probed up to 2806.75.

A dip touched 2803.50 and resumed the rally into the noon hour. And out of it. This afternoon’s 2809.00 bias-up signal has triggered, putting into play its 2816.75 bias-up target. Already, 2814.00 has been touched.

A lot of calculable buying pressure is being satisfied by fulfilling objectives and targets. Bigger picture structural objectives are being neutralized at 2809.00 and 2813.00 prior highs. No sell signal has triggered, but direction can reverse quickly when sponsorship starts waning.

Back under 2809.00-2810.00 would start to warn of a different sentiment forming. But the trend otherwise remains intact and up.

Morning’s bearish influence could be absorbed.

This morning’s 2797.75 bias-down signal didn’t trigger. It wasn’t even touched in time to invoke the grace period despite being in proximity. And breaking under it was recovered by 10:30 to maintain the no-bias environment. That no-bias environment didn’t prevent a fresh low at 2795.00, but it warned of the fresh low’s recovery, at least back up to 2797.75.

2797.75 was recovered, and was retested as support into the noon hour. It held again, but only to test this afternoon’s 2802.75 bias-up signal. And only momentarily by errant ticks. This afternoon is a no-bias environment, too.

Bias environments lapse. This one will come within view of lapsing 10-15 minutes before 2:30. Breaking higher would at least target a retest of the 2804.75 post-open highs. And probably extend higher to test the 2809.00 target which has yet to be tested intraday. Last night’s test of 2809.00 could suffice, but any higher would next target 2813.00-2816.75.

Did I mention that last night’s test of 2809.00 could suffice? Exiting the bias environment in decline would resume this morning’s bearish setup. Potential to 2781.25 would come into play.

Momentum disappearing at session highs.

The post-open dip to this morning’s 2793.50 bias-down signal held its test through 10:15. That put into play an offsetting test of the morning’s 2804.00 bias-up signal. The target was met within the hour, nice.

RSIs diverging into the morning bias environment exit had suggested momentum was rolling over. Taht would have been nice, too. Then came the news.

The Russia indictments headline triggered a knee-jerk reaction that attacked 2800.00. The artificial selling pressure crowded out the organic deterioration. The effect isn’t compounded, but replaced.

Anyway, now we all know that the administration isn’t affected by the indictments. So… relief rally! Right? Actually, the post-open 2806.25 high has only been touched. And only momentarily as its reaction is testing 2802.00 — the afternoon’s 2805.50 bias-up signal could have triggered but did not.

The shallow reactions suggest that Friday afternoon’s usual lethargic influence has begun. This doesn’t prevent trending any more, or retracing, but the predictability and reliability is inhibited.

Still rallying.

Breaking higher into the noon hour probed above the morning’s 2794.25 high to attack 2798.00. RSIs diverged negatively while overlapping the afternoon’s 2797.00 bias-up signal. Would have triggered cleanly? We don’t know, because a knee-jerk reaction to a China trade war headline triggered a quick reaction down attacking 2792.00.

The bias-up signal was recovered in time to invoke the grace period. Actually, it was already probed up to 2800.50, and a reaction down touched 2797.00 at 1:20. There was plenty of time to trigger cleanly.

Bias-up ultimately triggered, but it has yet to produce any fresh high. Which makes it more easily rejected, by exiting the bias environment back under its 2790.00 bias-up signal. Otherwise, its 2804.00 bias-up target becomes “unfinished business above.”

Back under 2796.00 (being being tested now) would start to signal momentum reversing down. Back above 2799.75 would signal the rally has resumed).