Mid-day Update

Morning influenced lapsed. But it hasn’t been invalidated.

The open’s Globex-flip setup produced the post-open 8-piont collapse, and the 2884.00 bias-down target test. Despite bouncing, the balance of the morning was contained by the 2890.75 bias-down signal. The noon hour entry dipped to 2887.75.

The noon hour itself firmed but never touched the 2895.50 bias-up signal. That’s being tested now by 5 ticks as the bias environment comes within view of lapsing.

Not triggering the afternoon’s bias-up kept alive potential for reinstating the bearish Globex-flip’s influence. Back under 2893.25 would start suggesting as much, which could trend down through tomorrow morning. Otherwise, continuing to improve above this afternoon’s 2895.50 bias-up signal would target a retest of the 2899.50 overnight high, and probably 2902.00, if not also fulfilling the eventual higher close requirement.

Hovering at post-open highs.

The Employment Situation report’s spike up to 2893.50 didn’t require a retest. But the post-open pullback to 2886.75 was absorbed and reversed up to fresh highs.

The 2892.00 bias-up target was exceeded through 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal, next targeting 2902.00. Renewed signals aren’t required to meet their target unless confirmed through the close. But already probing above the pre-10:15 high up to 2896.50 makes that likely.

None of which seems obvious from the narrow range that has developed. Narrow ranging isn’t unusual for a Friday, being one of the many Friday Factors that are a function of the impending weekend’s illiquidity.

Regardless of the 2902.00 target’s likelihood, a reaction down would be credible for extending. But this being a Friday and probing fresh highs, not yet reversing down as the bias environment lapses would remain more vulnerable to extending higher.

Pre-payrolls paralysis.

Sponsorship is difficult to generate on the afternoon prior to the Employment Situation report. And this morning’s bias objective is met — an offsetting test of the 2872.50 bias-down signal, for having held a test of the 2881.75 bias-up signal.

Having become “unfinished business,” 2872.50 was a candidate for this afternoon’s bias-down signal. And its test held to avoid triggering. So, this is a no-bias environment.

Bouncing back up to or toward this afternoon’s 2884.00 bias-up signal wouldn’t be trending, but noise in the range. There’s potential anyway up to 2881.75 and 2883.50. Any higher would suggest a retest of yesterday’s 2889.25 highs.

But there’s not currently any unfinished business above, and a couple of failed attempts to break lower when sponsorship would have been strong-handed. Back under 2873.50 could get a benefit of the doubt for extending to 2866.00, but probably not durably.

Backing-and-filling, again.

This morning’s recovery was contained to its bias environment. The post-open backing-and-filling that held the 2875.50 bias-up signal as support to trigger bias-up. Its 2882.25 bias-up target was met, too late to renew the bias-up signal. But it was still a bias-up environment, likely also to visit the 2886.25 overnight high’s “new Globex trend extreme.”

Probing the overnight high by 3 points to 2889.25 also exited the bias environment above 2885.00. This did what renewing this morning’s bias-up would have done, putting into play 2902.00. Which would be confirmed by closing above 2885.00.

Meanwhile, the rally has not extended. The afternoon triggered no-bias, and the market is backing-and-filling. Again. Being a no-bias environment, its 2881.00 bias-down signal should define the window’s lower-end if tested. But its test is probing 5 points under it, “no-bias trending” that will require retracing 2881.00.

Is 2902.00 entrenched, for having exited the bias environment above 2885.00? That’s the assumption, until disproved — by closing back under 2885.00. Meanwhile, RSIs have become simultaneously oversold on this pullback, and the nearest buy signal is back above 2883.00.

Neither bias signal touched, so beware delayed efforts.

This morning’s opening touch of its 2872.25 bias-up signal never recovered, putting into play an offsetting test of its 2863.75 bias-down signal. Probing it down to 2862.25 reversed back up to natural resistance at 2871.00, “unchanged” from yesterday’s close.

Extending higher would have suggested this morning’s dip was only “backing-and-filling” which I had described this morning. Its reward would at least fresh highs around 2875.50, if not also launching a new upleg. But 2871.00 held its test and retest entering and exiting the noon hour.

Bias-up 1 tick higher wasn’t even touched. This is a no-bias environment. And there really is no bias, as today’s range continues narrowing. Although 2871.00 is being tested again, and its break would likely target 2875.50.

So, if this morning’s dip wasn’t “backing-and-filling” then was it a warning shot across the rally’s bow? Another downleg would likely be much steeper and deeper. And the 2862.25 low’s retest is already required for its RSIs having been simultaneously oversold there.