Mid-day Update

Noon hour opportunity to recover falls flat.

The noon hour probed a fresh low attacking 2622.00 that didn’t take RSIs oversold. It was recovered 2639.50 as the noon hour lapsed — a fresh relative high that was well-timed and well-postured to produce a corrective bounce. But it didn’t.

The reversal attempt was itself reversed into the bias timing window. Not deeply enough soon enough to trigger the 2626.25 bias-down signal, but that hasn’t mattered. The no-bias environment has extended down anyway to 2602.00.

Is this no-bias trending? Not if the 2618.50 bias-down target is recovered as the bias environment starts lapsing. Then the bias signal would require being retraced, too. Otherwise, not yet recovering would suggest the bias-down signal’s trigger was delayed by Fed Chair Powell’s impending comments, no retracement required.

As for the balance of the session, it remains vulnerable to extending down. And there’s not much support below, actually a very wide air pocket that would set an interesting tone for next week.

Extension retraced, and possibly reversed.

This morning’s bias-up environment eventually resolved up through 2660.00 to probe fresh highs up to 2672.25. Reversing down into the noon hour was corrected coming out of the noon hour, but that didn’t prevent triggering late bias-down. Now the afternoon’s 2650.00 bias-down target is already being met.

2650.00 is also potentially holding. And why not. It satisfies selling pressure, which often requires attracting reinforcements to extend the decline. But attracting any sponsorship is difficult during the afternoon before the Employment Situation report, which often paralyzes price action with anxiousness. In fact, its reaction is now testing 2659.00.

Having probed well above it, now closing under 2660.00 would not greet tomorrow’s report from a position of strength. Meanwhile, closing under 2644.00 would all but ensure resolving down tomorrow. Dipping back under 2653.00 would start to signal at least an attack on 2644.00 underway.

Plunge’s retracement hasn’t actually reversed.

Reversing more substantially than the overnight false break did get to this morning’s 2595.00 bias-up signal. It was probed during the bias environment, but ultimately touched one last time as the bias environment came within view of lapsing. Extending higher into the noon hour attacked 2620.00 to within 2-3 ticks.

That was the minimum objective for extending any higher. It neutralized the overbought RSIs at yesterday’s high. And this afternoon’s 2620.00 bias-up target is essentially met to prevent creating “unfinished business above.”

There’s no requirement for the balance of the session to trend either way. But unless 2620.00 is exceeded — and preferably soon — then the pattern remains vulnerable to retracing much of all of this morning’s recovery.

Holding above yesterday’s late high hasn’t extended higher.

The open’s 2588.00-2597.00 range had resolved down to avoid triggering bias-up. Despite putting into play an offsetting test of the 2566.50 bias-down signal, despite probing the pre-10:15 lows, and despite extending down to 2573.50… the balance of the bias environment rallied to fresh highs at 2606.00.

Exiting the bias environment above its 2601.50 bias-up target would have invalidated the no-bias signal and its lower objective. Despite rallying 33 points from low to high, and despite probing fresh highs up to 2606.00, the bias environment lapsed back under 2601.50.

So, 2566.50 is “unfinished business below.” Overbought RSIs at the 2606.00 high require an eventual retest. Perhaps that attraction above is what’s responsible for limiting the noon hour’s pullback to 2584.00. Back under 2590.00 and 2585.00 would start to overwhelm that higher attraction in favor of trending back down.

Corrective bounce opportunity fails.

Just for having tested Feb 5’s pivotal low last Friday, an eventual test of the actual low has been required. Ranging sideways for several days didn’t change that, and Thursday’s interim bounce never gained traction. Last night’s relatively shallow range did not in itself suggest fresh lows were any nearer.

But the open resolved down quickly. And the morning extended down sharply. Sharply, and substantially. Now the noon hour’s fresh low is being probed, after finally bouncing for the first time today. No-bias triggered, and was then invalidated after being probed through 1:30.

Which is the most interesting aspect to today’s drop. Beginning from much higher at 2632.00 — still 10 points under Thursday’s cash session close — dropping almost 60 points firmed into the noon hour. A fresh low during the noon hour recovered from under 2579.00. Now a fresh low after triggering no-bias has tested 2567.00. Isolated probes, when the bias-down failed to trigger, are vulnerable to being trapped in a short-squeeze.

There’s still a lot of room to recover before signaling momentum reversing up. Back above 2580.00-2583.00 during the bias environment could end the day much higher. But trying too late to recover would only trap longs for another downleg with 2509.00-2511.00 still the next lower objective.